Shell Share Discussion Threads

[diku] 18/1/2016 08:14

Such situations warrants shareholder voices to be heard....how can a handful of insiders decided what is or not a good deal...

[chairman20] 18/1/2016 08:13

Hedge Funds or other short sellers flooding boards like this
with random posters trying to kill deal. If they are trying
to rubbish deal then that's a good enough argument for me to
take a long term view and back it.

sent off my vote to OK deal this am.

doesn't mean there will not be further falls in share price,
nor that the long term value of Shell after the deal goes through
is easy to calculate - it isnt

[zyzzyva] 18/1/2016 00:50

no that is a very poor analogy. BG is a highly leveraged, high risk E&P company while shell has enormous low risk downstream operations and relatively modest net debt levels. and the cash component represents 39% of the current implied BG equity valuation, which is very significant.

my guess would be that if the deal was called off, BG shares could crash to £2.50 while shell shares would jump 15-20% or perhaps more

[whiskeyinthejar] 18/1/2016 00:14

As it's mostly a paper deal, a better analogy is if two people decided to EXCHANGE their homes between them.

If then, there was a price crash between offer and completion, then no it wouldn't alter much whether it was a good deal.

Because the value of both houses will have declined.

[philanderer] 17/1/2016 22:47

Questor Telegraph:

Shell investors: all they need to know, the crucial documents, and how to vote

FTSE 100 oil giant Shell is embarking on one of the biggest takeover deals in its history and investors have less than two weeks to vote

[zyzzyva] 17/1/2016 20:51

see the other thread. as someone said on there-
Would you still "stand on" buying property for top dough 8 mths into a property crash?

the deal does not make sense, it is a disaster for shell shareholders. someone else likened it to the VOD-mannesman deal. and three years later VOD was down to just 80p. it doesnt make any sense

[whiskeyinthejar] 17/1/2016 19:42

But the value of reserves is always there whether you buy the shares tomorrow and sell them Tuesday or keep them 20 years. Company valuation is not just about current production,


Anyway, we're getting BG cheaper. Deal was for £13.50. Now under a tenner. You lucky people.

[diku] 17/1/2016 19:10

But then if he had waited till now then he could have had BG a lot more cheaper in billions....who wants to wait for 20-30 years?...more like he is securing his financial agenda...

[muffinhead] 17/1/2016 00:11

"for the Fed to intervene in such a dramatic fashion it suggests that the US energy industry is on the verge of a subprime-like blow up"




mark to market...ahh quaint concept which Shell will have to grapple with after swallowing BG
Shame nobody come to BHP's rescue to stop $7 billion writedown last week this side of the pond

[zyzzyva] 16/1/2016 23:51

A DESPERATE situation can sometimes be best summed up by numbers.

Here’s one that neatly captures the effect the oil price crash has had on the London market. The combined market value of 112 publicly traded oil companies — the entirety of Britain’s listed industry excluding the top three of Shell, BP and BG — is the same as that of Marks & Spencer: £7bn.

Two years ago, just one of the 112 — Tullow Oil — was worth more than Britain’s preferred seller of sandwiches and underwear, with a healthy £8.2bn market value. Its fall has been stunning. As the numbers above attest, it is but one of many.

hxxp://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/business/Industry/article1654391.ece

[zyzzyva] 16/1/2016 23:28

here we go... another 600,000 barrels of oil to be sold into the market each day....


International sanctions on Iran have been lifted after a watchdog confirmed it had complied with a deal designed to prevent it developing nuclear weapons.

[diku] 16/1/2016 23:20

Maybe they don't need the money now!...they got enough...

[2hoggy] 16/1/2016 23:17

Did you we ever read a book that I read where the arabs forced the price of oil down through the floor and by the back door invested massively in the stock markets which had collapsed at this point to turn down the taps of oil production and then collect a fortune from a rising stock market and also control huge companies.

Bit like today maybe????????

There has to be another side to this story,why would they do this unless there was an agenda.

[diku] 16/1/2016 22:32

If you think everyone is conned by growth numbers then what chance currency movement has any correlation to share price movement...is it all a myth?... or just another play tool attached to the casinos...

Now where is Monty No:1...is he playing golf tonight?...

[treeshake] 16/1/2016 16:28

careful, that is spot on !

But common sense doesn't count when it comes to the markets never mind governments !

[careful] 16/1/2016 15:56

How everyone is conned by growth numbers.
Even if China was not growing at all, (zero) it would still have an $8trillion economy and consume oil, raw materials and other products.

Ask yourself how much oil,petrol electricity and food would be required in the UK if growth was zero.
they would not fall much, although house prices may tumble and unemployment would rise.

[funtimejonny] 16/1/2016 15:30

I agree. Bargain of the century sub 1500.

[badtime] 15/1/2016 17:52

Nice weekend everyone ..it's a tad chilly

[sogoesit] 15/1/2016 17:20

Anyway, whatever it is it is getting serious!
So, I am now short the S&P 500 at 1875.
I think next support is at 1660 then 1525 for longer term.
Short term, 1850 will do.
Have a fun weekend!

[zyzzyva] 15/1/2016 17:02

oil price has halved since the deal was announced. i cannot see how shell shareholders can support the deal now. imo if they voted against it shell shares would jump. we saw that a week or two ago when a major shareholder came out against the deal.

[lyceeuk] 15/1/2016 16:56

the yanks are not pumping at full tilt they are pumping just to lower the price to hurt their enemies

[essentialinvestor] 15/1/2016 16:45

This is thy way I see it -

The House of Saud would not be in power very long at $10 crude, or less,
SA already issuing debt to pay for government spending.

Saudi have the power to completely alter supply/demand overnight,
this is being overlooked atm imv.

The UKX melt down does not help the share price either.

If you think the global economy is heading for some 1930's scenario then
your view is probably different.