Shell Share Discussion Threads

[irnbru2] 04/8/2015 23:11

Nothing last for ever.

If oil goes to $40, they must cut the divi.

Look at BP. They can not support, what they have.

[imperial3] 04/8/2015 23:10

The reality is that the oil price is decreasing.We are in a now situation,and in this scenario,I fail to see how the share price can withstand this.Predicting the oil price is a mug's game,but the omens do not look good.We could be testing new lows,and as yet,I fear no turnround is in sight.Having said that,it must be remembered that Shell is a huge multinational company,and is more strongly placed than many to ride out the storms in front of it.

[irnbru2] 04/8/2015 22:51

RDSB, is going lower.

It will go with the POL.

They will do everything in their power, to keep the divi.

Till they can not.

[fjgooner] 04/8/2015 21:55

Hi damanko,

No, I'm most definitely not a Spurs fan, though they do make me laugh year after year. Bless 'em.

Re Norwich, I look forward to our game on Sunday 29th November - good luck. Let's be having you. :)

You're quite right about the cyclical nature of investments - and these tend to mirror all things in the natural world. I always draw the analogy of high and low tides, casting nets and being patient. Definitely not following the modern paradigm of high-frequency volume trading intraday in dark pools. But that's most likely because I'm getting to be old and risk averse. And not a spiv.

Well done on Pantheon. I had a few similar results in my early days and also went through the post-9/11 crash and dot.com bubble markets - happily largely unscathed.

It is the long-term visibility that I enjoy about Shell - and the dividends that the board hold as such a high priority.

Good luck to you,

FJ :)

[damanko] 04/8/2015 12:49

fggooner, I presume you're not a Spurs fan then. Neither am I, though as somebody from Norwich, best I keep quiet on the football front ....

Excellent post, I bought RDSB a month or so ago, put half in a SIPP and the rest in an ordinary share account. Once the government's tax relief dribbles into the SIPP, my effective buying price will be some 20% below the current share price, giving a yield in the order of 10% or more.

I can probably live with that, I'm an investor rather than a trader, and intend to keep these for many years. Younger investors perhaps won't appreciate this comment, but here goes: The stock market moves in cycles. Wow, such wisdom ...

EG: In 1987 I bought a few thousand shares in Pantheon Internal Participations at 89 pence. Over the years they appreciated, and in 2007 were trading at a little over £9. Then the crunch came along, the cycle turned and they went down to £2 or so. So I bought a few thousand more .... today they're somewhere around the £13 mark.

Cycles, innit .......?

[shaggies_view] 04/8/2015 06:47

Brent sub $50. Key level will be at $48 which could be a dbl bottom otherwise you are looking at $40 pdq.

Shaggy

[fjgooner] 03/8/2015 23:26

Who cares what the share price does in the next few minutes / hours / days / weeks? That's concern for the spiv speculators, whether long or short.

For real investors, the combined Shell / BG group is going to be massively powerful. For 20 to 40 years to come.

View the Q2 Results video presentation|:



There's a very strong guarantee of the dividend being maintained at current levels or greater until 2017. And preserving its unique record of always maintaining or increasing its dividend in every single year and every single crisis since the end of World War Two. What a record. From 2017 onwards there's a share buyback program pencilled in of 25 Billion.

Note carefully the comments about how there isn't really a market - future let alone spot - on LNG prices. More than 80% of these contracts are multi-year, bespoke and market agnostic. That makes the BG acquisition even more strategically sound in the near term. A rapid positive contribution to cashflow straight from the off, if you like.

That said, on the oil side, $50 Brent will of course continue to weigh on results if maintained for several quarters, rather than a couple of months. But medium term even that may be good for the strongest operators such as Shell in seeing the retirement of weaker competitors. The recovery, when it comes, will be even more generous in its rewards.

I retain a healthy holding for 6.5% plus dividends and a capital gain of >50% when Barclays latest, reiterated target for Shell is reached.

Whether that be one year or five years hence really doesn't matter. That's the beauty of holding a financial giant paying reliable and strong dividends.

[moneysage] 03/8/2015 19:13

Imperial - you can always pump twice the oil at half the price. And also margins on refining increase as oil drops.

[imperial3] 03/8/2015 18:19

How can these go up,when the price of oil keeps on going down? I think we have a long wait before the worm turns.

[essentialinvestor] 03/8/2015 16:15

Take a look at Chevron!

Traded BP this afternoon, at least the % moves present opportunities,
but it can be dangerous.

[shaggies_view] 03/8/2015 16:15

Heads up: Ensure you have stops in place.
I don't like the price action of brent here. DYOR

Shaggy

[2hoggy] 01/8/2015 17:23

As long as it does not affect safety,bear in mind bp.

[hiriam007] 31/7/2015 21:14

Funny how people perceive things.

Eisler regards the industry as beset with inefficiency and archaic processs. Very fair point.

Some of us regard this as lots of waste and can be remedied resulting in profit.

The reality is probably a bit of both :)

[muffinhead] 31/7/2015 21:11

Afren in administration

[cc2014] 31/7/2015 20:15

Why is BG. up 1.2% when RDSB is flat?

[irnbru2] 31/7/2015 20:07

imperial3,

Shell went for BG before it was taken out by others.

[irnbru2] 31/7/2015 20:05

EssenialInvestor,

Good call.

[imperial3] 31/7/2015 19:00

Essential Investor.The job of the Shell directors is to read the oil market,that is what they are paid for.Timing is everything,yes there are synergies between BG and Shell,and the former is able to plug holes in Shell's asset base.Do you not think that they have overpaid for BG,as oil as you can see, has been in a relentless decline, since the acquisition news was announced.Surely they could have waited,and picked up BG far cheaper.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2015 16:30

imperial, you can't have it both ways, earlier this week you appeared to
blame Shell directors for the current SP, unrelated to the wider industry.

It's sector wide, not company specific.

The BG acquisition had taken another 7-8% off the Shell share price approx (pre results)
now some are beginning to see the long term logic of the proposed deal.

Anyway it's been a great week for anyone who bought in the pervasive gloom
pre results, a steal at sub 1750.

[imperial3] 31/7/2015 16:23

What do you expect?

[eisler] 31/7/2015 14:52

The industry's inefficiency and archaic processes are well documented - I don't need to elaborate. Yes, significant scope for cost cutting and improved supply chains.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2015 14:50

Eisler, you beat me to it, thanks, that makes more sense in terms of context,
appreciate the reply.

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2015 14:47

jon, the comment was not based on that post.
Having worked in the general industry just wondered if Eisler can give
some more detail on his views.