Shell Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 11/7/2015 20:10

Unconfirmed bottom in this oil proxy, needs eod close above upper trendline for confirmation.

[irnbru2] 11/7/2015 19:15

First line in the sand will be at the $60 mark where the bulls and bears will face off. Lets see who wins that.

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Not sure you are right on that one.

Who are the bulls, and who are the bears.
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Most of the last oil price crashes have been political.

This one also has political dimention, but the commodity cycle always precede the share/bond cycle.

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There are oil traders, but they ain't generally bulls or bears, yurt trade.

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Anyway, agreed, if oil price goes down, this will go down.

Have not been following this for long, but it smells like some city boys are shorting it.

[irnbru2] 11/7/2015 19:03

Some times you need to live a capital loss.

ATM, I am same, but this not the time to sell.

[minerve] 10/7/2015 22:27

IrnBru2

Yes, of course, I am aware of that. If the oil price turns, which it may, this will be back on its downwards trajectory. I still want to be in this stock, it is just that I believe there is a chance, a more than reasonable chance now, to buy in cheaper, later. I have based this decision on recent news events. There were reports in the FT late in the day mentioning new rigs drilling for oil - the second straight week this has happened in 7 months. Although it is reasonable to assume that those drilling possibly anticipate a better market for oil later, it all adds up to negative sentiment about the oil price short-term. I take the view now that I have bought in too early. Also, if the Greek circus delivers an elephant at the weekend, I have got additional cash to play with whilst I wait for the oil price to deliver more stability. Of course, I could be wrong, but I hate sitting on capital losses even on projected long-term, income-type investments.

IMHO & DYOR

[philo124] 10/7/2015 22:14

2000p within 3 weeks. No probs.

[irnbru2] 10/7/2015 21:35

Min,

It is going up.

[minerve] 10/7/2015 17:40

Yes, I have reduced my holding based on this news. I think the share is very good long-term but there is a risk of capital loss over the next 12 months. So I have kept some to enjoy the yield and sold waiting possible further decreases in the oil price/share price. Perhaps some of us bought in a little too early.

[zho] 10/7/2015 17:33

Oil prices may have further to fall despite stabilising in recent months - and even beginning to rise modestly - because of a massive oversupply the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.

[supermarky] 10/7/2015 12:06

Yeah I was just being ultra cautious with long. Chart looks v good

[shaggies_view] 10/7/2015 10:25

Still long. Looks like an 'island reversal' pattern on daily chart.
Very bullish imho.

Shaggy

[supermarky] 10/7/2015 08:46

Just pulled my long from 1800. Nice little profit. Didn't want it left open over the weekend.

[essentialinvestor] 09/7/2015 12:56

Ok thanks on the view Mr S.

[nash81] 09/7/2015 12:53

RMP is spudding the hawkeye well July/Aug.

Shell is watching them closely.

hxxp://manilastandardtoday.com/mobile/2015/05/10/shell-monitors-hawkeye-well/


RMP could be 300m mcap if hawkeye a success.
hxxp://catalysthunter.com/oil-gas/rmp/1-in-3-chance-of-a-20-bagger-offshore-drilling-weeks-away/20150505/

[shaggies_view] 09/7/2015 12:42

EI - Possibly but could be a higher low.

Shaggy

[essentialinvestor] 09/7/2015 10:02

Would you expect a re-test of the recent low folks?, from a TA perspective.

[minerve] 09/7/2015 09:16

The only thing that is going to drive this price at the moment is the oil price and the new issues surrounding that. Using charts at this point is futile because normal trading patterns aren't happening. If you are going to view charts at present I would also judge that with Brent and WTI futures.

[supermarky] 09/7/2015 09:11

My thoughts exactly. Let's hope

[bamboo2] 09/7/2015 09:06

If the fall is over, and I think it probably is, I would assume a period of range-bound consolidation. During the next month or 5 weeks we could see a bottom forming that could lead us to the potential turn in the share price in mid-august.

[shaggies_view] 09/7/2015 09:01

Shell triggered a BUY signal on yesterdays close. In my work signals are triggered and take a day or so to confirm. If it does not confirm, I will sell just above my stop. I trade in the medium term so don't give a monkeys' about daily fluctuations. This time around I had a target 1750-1770p and went for it given it was so oversold.

Enjoy the fruits of patience!

Shaggy

[fangorn2] 09/7/2015 00:01

~Min,

Think you're spot on with the assumption vis existing wells pumping more. It's been the inefficient wells that have been taken offline first. The big questions is how quickly these wells will deplete, how much excess capacity will be taken up by the refiners(margins are pretty decent as is where Shell, BP et al made most of their profits in last round of results)

Storage rates are also soaring eg tankers. So plenty of crude being stacked up for future sale.

Let's hope demand doesn't collapse otherwise we could be in for a bumpy ride. I'll try to find some info on tanker rates.

[moneysage] 08/7/2015 23:48

If you compare this oil price drop with the drop in iron ore prices in earlier years, then Shell will do exactly what Iron ore producer Rio Tinto did to survive the commodity price rout as prices halved: it doubled production and went for more market share.That is exactly the way forward for Shell and they are doing it through acquisitions like BG!!These things take time to work through and in the short term just take advantage of any buying opportunities that make this even sweeter through market noise generated by greece, China, etc

[minerve] 08/7/2015 23:25

Yes, agreed Fangorn2.

Production isn't falling because existing wells are pumping more to try and maintain revenues at lower prices (?) - this is an assumption as I haven't read anything to this effect, I am just taking the analogy from the miners. This will hurt those with lower reserves. This all adds to further over capacity, which in-turn, could drive prices down further.