Shell Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 20/12/2003 17:07

Please note I am not a SHEL specialist I'm a generalist, I'm only in here as I hold some options.

[ander] 20/12/2003 16:39

thanks hectorp..

[hectorp] 20/12/2003 16:05

ander - I do not know , no-one can say what the price will be if i know I'd place every penny on a bet and double my cash.
Notice the latest Lybia news - this should bring Lybia properly into the camp of Western oil production interest. This would be one factor in reducing crude price.
In general, I'll go short Shel when this SHEL rally has definitely stalled but I'd wait two clear days ist.
H.

[a0002577] 20/12/2003 10:32

Waldron - interesting article. Thanks for the link.

[ander] 19/12/2003 20:12

Hectorp..what are your thoughts about shell price is it going up at the start of business next week or down.

[hectorp] 19/12/2003 16:58

from CBS-
...some OPEC ministers warn that the cartel may cut supply again in February because it fears a surplus at the conclusion of winter'

and some parts of the US are having a cooooolllld winter.
- decide for yourselves.
H.

[ander] 19/12/2003 14:56

thanks profitaker..i'll 'bear your comments in mind'.

[profitaker] 19/12/2003 14:53

ander

Don't let me influence you either way (I am short). BUT share prices never rise or fall in a straight line. A near vertical rise is normally followed by a near vertical drop (look at the Shel chart over the last 6 months). I emphasis the word "normally", meaning, the risk of downside right now, is greater than the risk of upside - hence me being short.

If I was in long and for the long term, I'd much prefer a steady rise, rather than a 10% rise in 3 weeks.

[ander] 19/12/2003 14:37

thanks bikeaholic..I'll try to keep my 'nerve' a while longer!!!

[bikeaholic] 19/12/2003 14:26

ander.......if I was of a nerevous disposition I would see if it can go beyond the 6 months resistance levels @ around 412/415 if it starts falling back at that level I would sell. As I'm not of a nervous disposition and hate paying more CGT I'll hold out until after April unless it goes byond the 12 months high in which case I'll take the CGT hit.

[ander] 19/12/2003 13:57

anyone any idea,please, on how long this upward trend will last and what price shell might reach before a big drop?

[hectorp] 19/12/2003 13:51

Alphorn, good luck with your June puts,
you think the USD would be even harder hit now and that the idea of the US
rate rise in the spring, is already in theprice eh? Hmmm I'd not considered that possibility. I was trading the currency futures the night they said there would be no change in the interest rate ( about 10 days back) and that prompted the current run on the USD again IMO. only time will tell.
I need to decide in the next week or two what my short term SHEL position will become. I don't have any at the moment, only very long calls and puts June 05.
H.

[alphorn] 19/12/2003 13:28

Hector - the two main elements to oils - price & quantity.
Your post concentrates on price - wouldn't disagree with your comments but perhaps the US$ is being supported at present by the expected rise in interest rates in 2004 (ie it would have fallen much further without that view). The twin deficits are still out there.
In so far as quantity is concerned that IMO is dependent to a large extend on a continued recovery creating demand. Hmm
I am on balance neutral to bullish for oil.
I have 10 sold puts open on Shell for June @ 390 at present (and as you know from the OPTS thread was considering turning it into a straddle).

[hectorp] 19/12/2003 12:43

I don't think so Bikey.
The market seems to be factoring in a higher crude price in 2004 than was expected earlier:
this could be extended particularly to gas prices, often overlooked as gas could well rocket in 2004 ( pun not intended)
now what was needed in early 2004 for the UK oil majors was a safe pathway to the time that US interst rates start to rise (or be written into stock valuation). I think the market realises this will be in the spring. Thats not far away now. WHEN this occurs the Dollar will start its slow recovery and the bottom will be called on the Buck's fall.
In brief!, SHEL could be anticipating the bottom of their Dollar earnings dip, while, preception of a bettr oil price ( and possibly cold winter weather in the US) is bolstering the underlying asset.
- responses please.
H.

[bikeaholic] 18/12/2003 10:51

Why the meteoric rise recently.....as a holder I'm not complaining, just curious. Could it be that the buble is about to burst and fund managers are switching to defensive stocks?

[capercaillie] 17/12/2003 16:16

Have a good run, rising from £3.70. It's been gaining strength all day.

[ander] 17/12/2003 16:06

anyone any idea if shell will break through that 'magic' 400p soon!!

[hectorp] 10/12/2003 08:36

Cold weather and need for heating oil in the US - early sings there of a cold winter. Markets down today but SHEL trying to rise.
Other thing is the curency situation. Oil and gold stocks' commodities being being valued in USD

[capercaillie] 09/12/2003 23:42

I got into these at £4.13 a couple of months ago thinking I was onto a good thing. This is their best day since. Any reasons why? Cold weather?

[hectorp] 02/12/2003 09:36

LOL.
So SHEL is on the up, so much for that Cowen note!
- Whas E38? a London bus?

[grupo guitarlumber] 28/11/2003 23:31

LONDON, November 28 (New Ratings) – Analysts at SG Cowen reiterate their "sell" rating on Royal Dutch/Shell (RD). The fair value is set to €38.

[hectorp] 28/11/2003 10:47

Would be good to see a bounce on SHEL and BP over the Winter... but the dollar seems to be holding it back?
H

[maywillow] 27/11/2003 15:08

LONDON (AFX) - Shell Western LNG, owned by the Royal Dutch/Shell Group, has
signed a 20-year sales and purchase agreement with Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas
Co, a statement released by the NLNG said.
Under the terms of the contract, NLNG will deliver 1.4 mln tonnes per annum
of gas to Shell Western for distribution to various markets, including Iberian
Peninsula, North America and Mexico.
The gas will be sourced from NLNG's 6th train, known as NLNGSix, which has a
capacity of 4 mln tonnes.
This is the second deal that the Barbados-based Shell Western has signed
with NLNG. The first contract involved 1.1 mln tonnes that came from trains 4
and 5, also called NLNGPlus.
NLNG is owned by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corp, which holds a 49 pct
stae, Shell Gas BV with 25.6 pct, Total LNG Nigeria Ltd with 15 pct and ENI
International NV with 10. 4 pct.
mbe/rn