Shell Share Discussion Threads

[bo doodak] 13/3/2020 15:09

A lot of folk seems to assume a re-run similar to 2008. Well maybe it will be, but there are plenty differences which might make it quite different. A relentless grind lower for quite some time is just as possible.

[waldron] 13/3/2020 15:05

Jamie Ashcroft

13:36 Thu 12 Mar 2020

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viewRoyal Dutch Shell Plc
Shell is most vulnerable amongst big oil peers - analyst

JP Morgan has moved its rating to 'neutral' in the wake of oil price collapse.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc -

JP Morgan analysts have downgraded Royal Dutch Shell Plc (LON:RDSB) to ‘neutral’; as they believe it is the most vulnerable to the market’s demand risks among the ‘big oil’ firms.

Looking at the sector turmoil, analyst Christyan Malek said: “We expect the OPEC+ breakdown to cause extreme oil volatility but depressed prices to prove short lived.

“Demand weakness will affect the entire complex if COVID-19 persists, but we believe oil offers the ‘cleanest̵7; risk/reward on tightening MT fundamentals.”
READ: Shell can defend dividend says UBS

UBS earlier this week claimed Shell will be able to defend the dividend through the current period of “cyclical weakness” having spoken the oil giant's investor team in the wake of Monday’s plunge in the oil price.

In a pre-arranged meeting, Shell’s team said there was around US$4bn flexibility in the company’s sustaining capital expenditure (capex), which means it is cash neutral into the “US$40s” a barrel oil price range. That’s still well above the current Brent spot price of just over U$$37 a barrel.

However, the Swiss bank reckons “modest disposal activity and some balance sheet capacity” will help defend the Shell dividend.

“Respecting and sustaining the dividend in cash and not reverting to scrip is an important input into the quality of the payout, in our view,” UBS added.

Shell and its UK rival BP (LON:BP.) saw their share prices shattered on Monday after the Saudi Arabia-led OPEC cartel started flooding the market with cheap oil.

It followed a stand-off with Russia, which refused to cut production in order to get the price up.
Proactive

[nw99] 13/3/2020 15:02

Buying opportunity in I go

[yellow122] 13/3/2020 14:59

Why the sell off so proportionally higher in shell?

Anyone heard any news on them specially?

[fardels bear] 13/3/2020 14:54

I should say so.

[supermarky] 13/3/2020 14:41

is this the risk off I was thinking about into the weekend?

[waldron] 13/3/2020 14:19

NO NEED TO EXPLAIN TO YOU GYM THAT SHELL IS SUBSTANTIALLY UNDERVALUED

[gymratt] 13/3/2020 14:17

Thank you, waldron... and good luck to you! :@)

[waldron] 13/3/2020 14:14

sit back relax and enjoy Gym

have fun

take care

cheers and hearty chuckle

may your capital gains be substantial and future divis be even bigger

[gymratt] 13/3/2020 14:09

I worked at Shell for 36yrs. Share options used to be a gift. I 'escaped' at 54 y.o.. Consider myself lucky. Toxic environment, in more ways than one!!

[waldron] 13/3/2020 14:07

Coronavirus expected to weaken 2020 solar power demand

PowerWind

By Andrew Fawthrop 13 Mar 2020

Research group BloombergNEF revised down its photovoltaic demand outlook, warning coronavirus could make 2020 the first solar power "down year" since the 1980s
american-public-power-association-XGAZzyLzn18-unsplash

BloombergNEF has cut its forecast for 2020 solar demand amid coronavirus pandemic

The impact of coronavirus on global renewables markets could make 2020 the first “down year” for solar power capacity addition since the 1980s.

This according to BloombergNEF, which has revised down its February global solar photovoltaic demand outlook for the year from between 121 gigawatts (GW) and 152GW to between 108GW and 143GW – an 8% drop in its midpoint estimate.

Policy shifts in China, the epicentre of the global pandemic, brought on by the impact on industrial and economic activity are expected to push some 2020 solar demand into next year.

There is better news for the wind power industry, where “tight schedules” and short-term specialised equipment rentals should offset the downside risk to BloombergNEF’s 75.4GW demand forecast for the year – a figure that would make 2020 a record year for wind build.


Solar not the only renewable power sector to be hit by coronavirus

Wider clean energy markets are also expected to be affected by the coronavirus outbreak, particularly in terms of demand for electric vehicles and their batteries, with a 44% year-on-year decline expected in Chinese auto sales alone.

The spread of the virus has also raised supply chain concerns, with the slowdown in China’s industrial activity creating bottlenecks in the delivery of key materials and components used in clean technology equipment.

China currently dominates the market for lithium – accounting for roughly three-quarters of global production capacity – which is a critical material used in the manufacture of electric vehicle batteries, and disruption caused by the virus brings global reliance on this single economy into sharp relief.

A BloombergNEF report states: “Chinese factories are restarting, so the pressure on supply of key components and equipment is likely to ease.

“Although there are short-term bottlenecks to delivery, we are currently more concerned about demand, as policymakers may divert attention away from clean energy to more pressing concerns.

“However, the short-term interruption to production in China has highlighted the need for diversified supply chains and strengthened the case for localised manufacturing in Asia, Europe and the US, especially for batteries.”

The research group has offered an “optimistic221; estimate of a 4% decline in the gigawatt-hours of battery demand throughout the year.


Oil price crash will challenge appetite for renewables investment

Coronavirus has wreaked havoc across global power industries, particularly in China, the world’s biggest energy consumer.

Oil and gas markets have been particularly hard hit, with falling demand caused by quarantine measures and a slowdown in travel, economic and industrial activity sparking a crude oil price war between key producers Saudi Arabia and Russia.

As investors reacted to the news of the stand-off earlier this week, oil majors suffered significant losses to their market value – something that could squeeze their spending budgets and have a longer-term impact on renewables investment.

Speaking to the Financial Times earlier this week, International Energy Agency executive director Dr Fatih Birol said the oil crash would “definitely put downward pressure on the appetite for a cleaner energy transition”.

“Observers will be quick to notice if governments’ and companies’ emphasis on the transition dies down when market conditions become more challenging,” he added.

“Low energy prices will make the economics of energy saving less attractive due to cheap oil and gas, and this will definitely not be good news.

“These issues are big issues — coronavirus, market conditions — but these are temporary. Maybe in a few months, maybe longer, the market conditions will recover, but our climate challenge will still be there.”

[waldron] 13/3/2020 13:56

nice Gym

you will go far my son

[gymratt] 13/3/2020 13:51

Just had another nibble. With a 3--> 5 year view, can't go wrong ,IMO.

[waldron] 13/3/2020 13:41

Stocks surge after worst day since the 1987 market crash, Dow jumps 1,000 points
Published Thu, Mar 12 20206:05 PM EDT

Updated Moments Ago

Fred Imbert
@foimbert
Yun Li
@YunLi626
Eustance Huang
@EustanceHuang

[eodfire] 13/3/2020 12:53

Topped up here. Divi not changed since ww2. Imo, I think the share price will look a lot more healthy in 6 months to a year with cv and oil price war passed. Good luck all holders. Top up on the dips as they say.

[montyhedge] 13/3/2020 12:37

Weak pound of course helps U.K. oil companies, with the oil price.

[crossing_the_rubicon] 13/3/2020 12:14

Poikka,

I fear

"The alternative explanation for the higher death rate is that Italy's is an overwhelmed health service"

this is the main reason but sure, Italy has an older demographic than UK....

but Iran has a far younger demographic than UK and its getting walloped and that is even under their under reporting...

[kkclimber56] 13/3/2020 12:13

Am I missing something but is it not simply a matter of replacing longer term equity financing at 10%+ with shorter term financing at far lower cost?

[sarkasm] 13/3/2020 12:02

SOUNDS RISKY BUT

what cost cheap debt to not pay future divis

borrowing getting cheaper by the day

especially if one believes all will come right before year end


kkclimber56
13 Mar '20 - 11:53 - 11021 of 11021
0 0 0
Does it make sense for shell to borrow to fund buybacks given the current yield of 12%

[kkclimber56] 13/3/2020 11:53

Does it make sense for shell to borrow to fund buybacks given the current yield of 12%

[sarkasm] 13/3/2020 11:32

did you mean DO NOT CRY OVER SPILLED OIL

or

WE SHELL B buybacks or not

we have not be terminatored