Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 18/5/2018 12:34

OIL SHELL B PLEASINGLY SHELL SHOCKED IF share price STAYS ABOVE 2775 BY END OF DAY

[imperial3] 18/5/2018 11:18

FJ

Thanks for those posts.Keep up the good work!

[fjgooner] 18/5/2018 10:04

Oil, not crypto, is what’s hot now, as Brent crude hits $80

May 18, 2018

While oil pushes forwards towards new heights, crypto currencies linger in doubt.

Saudi gets its wish for $80 of Brent crude.

Two weeks after Saudi said it was targeting $80/bbl oil, Brent jumped on Thursday as much as 1% to $80.18, following the latest drop in U.S. crude inventories and as fears around renewed sanctions on Iran continued.

ZERO hedge, a renowned business site said the jump followed a reported from Goldman titled simply “The case for commodities strengthens ” according to which America’s surging shale output won’t be able to replace the potential drop in Iranian oil shipments after the U.S. reimposed sanctions on OPEC’s third-largest producer.

Crypto stuck, oil unhinged

Bitcoin price sank below $8,000 on Thursday for the first time since mid-April, dropping nearly 5% after trading near $8,300 for the majority of the day, ultimately reaching $7,925, before it recovered above $8,000 today.

On April 18, Bitcoin hit $9,990, but has throttled down ever since then failing to go past the psychological $10,000 threshold.

Not oil.

Benchmark oil contract Brent North Sea hit $80 a barrel Thursday for the first time since November 2014, extending a recent run higher fuelled by tight supply concerns.

Prior to Thursday’s peak oil prices had already been rising thanks to steady demand growth and a landmark deal by oil producing countries, both inside and outside the OPEC cartel, to lower output by 1.8 million barrels per day till end 2018.

Oil is gold

Business Insider (BI), a prominent business site, said Brent crude oil traded up 0.91% to $80 a barrel on Thursday, or nearly 10% above the level at which traders started paring bets that oil would rise.

Brent has gained nearly 52% over the past year.

Goldman Sachs’ commodity strategists, who have been overweight over the asset class since 2016, said in March that there was no better time in the past decade to invest in commodities.

“Goldman sees Brent rising to as high as $82.50 a barrel, with the current rally has room to run, particularly from a returns perspective, as the current fundamental backdrop for oil is now more bullish than expected as strong demand now faces supply disappointments,” BI quoted Goldman Sach’s as saying.

“US shale cannot solve the current oil supply problems. Even if only 200-300 kb/d of Iran exports are at risk by year-end, OPEC is not likely to preempt this loss, only react to it,” Goldman said as reported by Zero Hedge.

“OPEC has never been able to catch late-cycle demand growth to replenish inventories before a recession occurs. And even if growth were to decelerate further, it would take global GDP growth collapsing to 2.5% yoy to simply balance the oil market!”

On Wednesday, the EIA reported that U.S. crude inventories fell 1.4 million barrels last week, while domestic production rose to 10.7 million barrels a day. Despite surging American output, which has topped 10 million barrels a day every week since early February, traders continue to push the price of Brent higher, unconcerned about the torrent of shale production this will unleash.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude ended the day unchanged from the previous session at $71.49 a barrel. WTI earlier hit a high going back to Nov. 28, 2014 at $72.30 a barrel, said CNBC.

By Hadi Khatib

[imperial3] 17/5/2018 22:05

Inevitably.In fact, you can apply that to any share, which has undergone a period of a strong rise.

[chiefbrody] 17/5/2018 21:56

Has to be a pullback sooner or later. Div buyback day in a month. Bit of a reversal will by more shares :-)

[imperial3] 17/5/2018 21:34

Those who took profits within the two previous days must be regretting it today.

[waldron] 17/5/2018 17:16

SO WE MAY YET FINISH THE WEEK IN THE 2775 to 2875p BOX

[waldron] 17/5/2018 17:10

Total
54.5 +1.79%


Engie
14.545 +2.07%

Orange
14.63 +0.76%

FTSE 100
7,787.97 +0.70%
Dow Jones
24,800.95 +0.13%
CAC 40
5,621.92 +0.98%


Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 80.23 +1.17%
Gasoline NYMEX 2.27 +0.62%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.83 +0.50%




BP
584 +1.41%

Shell A
2,730 +1.98%


Shell B
2,805.5 +2.13%

[petepitstop] 17/5/2018 16:58

It's worth repeating; margin x volume.

[the grumpy old men] 17/5/2018 10:39

Major oil and gas project reports reveal the value of collaborative working

Published by David Bizley, Editor
Oilfield Technology, Thursday, 17 May 2018 10:30

Guidelines to help oil and gas companies to collaborate have been hailed a success after two major UK projects revealed the benefits of joint working included a 10% reduction in costs.

The Callater Field and Brent Bravo decommissioning project both applied collaborative principles set out in the Project Collaboration Toolkit, which has been developed by the Engineering Construction Industry Training Board (ECITB) and the Offshore Project Management Steering Group (OPMSG). The toolkit was created to help the UK’s oil and gas industry improve its efficiency in a competitive global market by sharing skills and expertise to keep costs down.

The Callater Field project, which began production of 14 000 bpd in August 2017, was the result of a collaborative effort by joint block owners Apache Corporation, Subsea7 and Quad Way. The project was anchored around open and honest communication between partners and role selection based on need and competence, not on company rank or position. Key achievements cited in the case study report include faster project start-up, more efficient working practices and a 10% cost saving.

The Brent Bravo decommissioning project involved operator Shell and contractors Wood and Stork forming a cohesive team and integrating their operations to work more efficiently. Learning lessons from similar work on the Brent Delta platform, the onshore and offshore teams involved were smaller, due to less duplication of roles across the organisations involved, and more agile, meaning work started within six weeks rather than the typical three-month ramp up. The cost savings were significant: 10% less than the amount originally budgeted and 70% less than the comparable Brent Delta project.

Chris Claydon, Chief Executive of the ECITB, said: “Collaboration on projects is a great way for the industry to stay competitive in what remains a challenging operating climate. The ECITB designed its Project Collaboration Toolkit to enable effective, collaborative relationships in the sector, helping oil and gas companies to boost productivity and keep costs down. These reports clearly show a collaborative approach is helping the industry overcome delays and overspends that have historically hampered effective and efficient delivery of key infrastructure projects.”

Deirdre Michie, Chief Executive of Oil and Gas UK, said: “These significant case studies show the UK offshore industry at its best - in relentless pursuit of smarter ways of working which help to raise our competitiveness to the next level. “They are proof that collaborative working can yield successes across the lifecycle of the basin, from generating efficiencies and cost-savings which drive new prospects across the investment line, to making strides in efforts to reduce the decommissioning bill.

“I’m delighted to support this initiative alongside our Efficiency Task Force, which works across industry to promote efficient practice. With these great examples of collaboration in action I am sure we can look forward to hearing of many more.”

Gunther Newcombe, Director of Operations at the Oil and Gas Authority, said: “Since the OGA issued its UKCS Project Lessons Learnt Report in early 2017 we have seen increased collaboration within the industry to deliver improved project value. It is highly encouraging to see the ECITB Project Collaboration Toolkit being used to such good effect and the OGA will also be ensuring that the Robust Project Delivery Stewardship Expectation is implemented by industry, coupled with improved collaboration with the supply chain using Supply Chain Actions Plans (SCAPs).”

Steve Phimister, VP Upstream; Director Shell UK, said: “The ECITB Project Collaboration Toolkit will help all those involved in projects to realise the benefits of collaborative behaviours in project delivery. The case studies for the Callater Field Development and Brent Bravo Topsides Preparation Decommissioning Projects show what collaboration can really achieve. Whilst maintaining competitiveness, such improvements in project delivery performance and efficiency, as a direct result of collaborative behaviour, are hugely important to securing the future of UK Oil & Gas.”

Jim Lenton, Co-Chair of the Offshore Project Management Steering Group and Managing Director of Integrated Solutions at WorleyParsons, said: “The Offshore Project Management Steering Group were tasked by industry, following the 2015 ECITB project management conference, to create a tool to help our firms collaborate more successfully. This was identified as critical in our drive to maximise economic recovery. The toolkit is the product of this and I’m delighted that we now have a framework that can help industry drive better project outcomes by truly working together. I congratulate Callatar and Brent Bravo in this regard.”

The Project Collaboration toolkit aims to share best practices within the industry and to help clients and contractors to work together to make the industry more efficient and cost-effective. The ECITB and OPMSG are now looking at making the toolkit available to other industries.

[sarkasm] 17/5/2018 09:05

Oil Firms Tap Refining, Retailing -- WSJ
17/05/2018 8:02am
Dow Jones News

Shell A (LSE:RDSA)
Intraday Stock Chart

Today : Thursday 17 May 2018
Click Here for more Shell A Charts.

Petrochemicals, gas stations offer growth, as swings in crude prices roil drilling

By Sarah Kent

This article is being republished as part of our daily reproduction of WSJ.com articles that also appeared in the U.S. print edition of The Wall Street Journal (May 17, 2018).

Major oil companies are doubling down on gas stations, refineries and processing plants, betting on a once-unloved part of the energy business to shore up profits and expand their customer bases.

BP PLC plans to open thousands of gas stations in new markets such as Mexico and India over the next three years. Exxon Mobil Corp. is investing heavily to expand its petrochemical operations, which make products like plastics and the basic ingredients for all sorts of household goods. In November, Royal Dutch Shell PLC started work on a massive petrochemical complex in Pennsylvania -- its first big new plant in the U.S. since the 1960s.

Companies are expected to add 7.7 million barrels a day of new refining capacity by 2023, according to the International Energy Agency. In petrochemicals, it estimates investment in the U.S. alone over the next five years will add 13 million tons a year of new capacity to produce ethylene, the main component of plastic.

American refining, in particular, is booming. Surging shale production has provided plentiful, cheap oil close to the country's petrochemical heartland around the Gulf Coast. Fuel demand is expected to rise. All those dynamics helped drive Marathon Petroleum Corp.'s agreement to buy rival Andeavor last month for $23 billion, a deal that would create the country's largest refiner.

As smaller refiners consolidate, the world's major oil companies are promising that investment in their so-called downstream businesses -- and restructuring efforts they are simultaneously pursuing to improve efficiency -- will add billions of dollars to earnings. The focus on downstream grew amid a period of lower oil prices and concerns over long-term oil demand. Cheaper crude -- the primary feedstock for refining -- boosted margins and profits. Oil companies' "upstream," or oil exploration and development, meanwhile, was suffering from lower prices.

"Upstream at some point was not making money," said Tufan Erginbilgic, head of BP's refining and retail arm. That gave his unit a fresh imperative to "really significantly contribute to group performance, because we have to."

Today, higher crude prices pose a risk that margins from refining won't be as strong as they have in recent years. And all the new investment in capacity could end up swamping the market, analysts warned.

"It remains to be seen the way demand is going to shape up," said Jonathan Leitch, research director at Edinburgh-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

Big companies say the downstream investment is worth it -- no matter where crude prices head. Executives say that integrating the oil they produce with refining and retail businesses can maximize profits, and help steady finances amid the sometimes-wild swings in crude.

Investor pressure also has mounted on the major oil companies to start positioning for an age when fossil fuels may no longer power the world's fleet of passenger cars. Executives are betting their big petrochemical plants can offer diversification. According to the IEA, petrochemical production is expected to be the biggest driver of oil demand growth in the coming decades.

Gas stations, too, are promising new growth. They offer access to emerging markets, where demand for fuel is expected to be especially robust. A geographically wide network of branded, retail outlets also could create new opportunities where the industry now sees threats -- such as electric charging stations.

Last year, Shell bought one of Europe's biggest electric-vehicle charging companies, New Motion. It has teamed up with a group of car manufacturers to install more than 500 fast-charging points at existing Shell stations, across 10 countries in Europe over the next two years.

The rise of electric vehicles is "a reality, and an opportunity," Shell's downstream director, John Abbott, told analysts in March. "We are adjusting our offer to meet this new demand."

BP started its push before oil prices collapsed in 2014. The company was seeking stability after selling off billions of dollars in assets to pay for cleanup fees and legal costs associated with its catastrophic blowout in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010.

It sold off some of its refining businesses but resisted investor pressure to get rid of its downstream unit altogether. That was despite it being an industry laggard. Mr. Erginbilgic, the downstream boss, eliminated a layer of management and ordered up targeted improvement plans at each plant.

"At that time, we were the worst in the industry. Literally the worst," he said. BP says now it is on track to increase earnings from Mr. Erginbilgic's division by $3 billion between 2017 and 2021, doubling the improvement made in the two years from 2014.

Over the next three years, BP sees the biggest opportunity to boost earnings in gas stations. It is doubling down on partnerships with convenience stores, which has boosted profitability at gas stations in mature markets, and is pushing hard into new countries where demand is expected to grow.

BP says it is on track to open 500 retail sites in Mexico by the end of the year, up from zero at the start of 2017. Elsewhere, it is looking to build gas stations in India, China and Indonesia.

Write to Sarah Kent at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

May 17, 2018 02:47 ET (06:47 GMT)

[imperial3] 16/5/2018 22:08

Barclays have a target price of £30 a share.

[imperial3] 16/5/2018 21:48

Fj Your posts are always a fascinating read.I hold Shell and will continue far into the future, with so many positive scenarios,underpinning the share price.

[sarkasm] 16/5/2018 21:47

getting better all the time

shell since youve been mine

[fjgooner] 16/5/2018 21:26

So, to put the likely Brent average of $75 for this Q2 or for $90 potentially in 2020 into perspective, recall from the slides that accompanied the 4th Quarter Results the very clear Shell metric:

Price sensitivity:
+/ -$10 Brent = +/ -~$6 billion CFFO

... along with the commentary in those results ....

"This performance delivered around $28 billion in free cash flow in 2017 with oil at $54 per barrel. By 2020, we expect to deliver between $25 and $30 billion in organic free cash flow, at an oil price of $60 per barrel, real terms 2016. While this outlook is ambitious, our performance in 2017 gives us confidence that it is realistic. We have close to $10 billion in cash flow from new projects still to be delivered in the 2018 to 2020 timeframe, growth across our portfolio and continued cash delivery from operational improvements."

----

So we have:

Oil price of $60 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $25 to $30 billion in organic FCF

Or for current average Brent prices look set to be around $75 per barrel:
Oil price of $75 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $34 to $39 billion in organic FCF

Or for $90 a barrel as predicted by Morgan Stanley above:
Oil price of $90 per barrel, real terms 2016 --> $43 to $48 billion in organic FCF

Is it just me, or does this look rather nice?

FJ :)

[sarkasm] 16/5/2018 20:32

Crude oil to hit $90 a barrel as diesel, jet fuel demand soars, Morgan Stanley predicts

Brent crude oil will average $90 a barrel in 2020 as demand for middle distillates like diesel and jet fuel grows, Morgan Stanley says.
Stockpiles of distillates are nearing five-year lows and refineries are scrambling to satisfy growing consumption, the bank notes.
New pollution rules in the shipping industry will only increase demand for distillates, Morgan Stanley warns.

Tom DiChristopher | @tdichristopher
Published 1 Hour Ago CNBC.com









A worker fuels an airliner in Oakland, Calif.
Getty Images
A worker fuels an airliner in Oakland, Calif.

Demand for diesel and jet fuel will help push Brent crude oil prices to $90 a barrel in 2020, according to Morgan Stanley.

The investment bank previously forecast Brent would average about $65 in each of the four quarters of 2020. Brent hit a three-and-a-half-year high at $79.47 a barrel on Tuesday. It hasn't risen above $90 a barrel since October 2014.

But Morgan Stanley warns that stockpiles of middle distillates, which include diesel and jet fuel, are nearing five-year lows as demand for the fuel grows. Refineries around the world are now struggling to keep pace with consumption, it says.

"Over the next few years, we expect tightness in one particular product — middle distillate — to lead to strength in one particular liquid, crude oil, and especially those crudes that look like Brent," Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley's global oil strategist, said in a research note on Tuesday.

That demand will grow by roughly another 1.5 million barrels a day due to tighter pollution rules in the shipping industry, Morgan Stanley projects.

In 2020, the International Maritime Organization will enforce new emissions standards that will require ships to either install equipment to scrub pollutants from engines or use cleaner-burning low-sulfur fuel. Morgan Stanley says most shippers will opt for the latter, effectively shifting demand from other fuel types to distillates.

Meanwhile, most of the growth in global oil production is coming from natural gas liquids and condensates, a type of super light oil. That's a problem because neither of those liquids are used to make middle distillates, Morgan Stanley says.

According to the bank's estimates, global crude oil output would need to grow by 5.7 million barrels a day by 2020 to meet growing distillate consumption. Morgan Stanley does not think that's possible.

"We see global crude production re-accelerating again, but falling well short of this level. Since 1984, crude oil production growth over a 3-year period has reached this level only once," Rats said.

On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency said it expects oil from countries outside OPEC to grow by nearly 1.9 million barrels a day this year.

The crude shortfall will help push gasoil prices to about $850 per ton, or 25 percent to 30 percent above today's levels, Morgan Stanley projects. That will consequently push Brent to $90 a barrel.
Tom DiChristopher CNBC
Tom DiChristopherEnergy Reporter

[fjgooner] 16/5/2018 19:42

Well, we're exactly halfway through Q2 and Brent stands at an average of $73.35 and sits currently way higher at $79.12, so we could be looking at a Q2 average of $75 or more.

Levels not seen since 2014 Q4.

FJ

[waldron] 16/5/2018 17:28

Total
53.54 -0.61%


Engie
14.25 -3.52%

Orange
14.52 -0.07%

FTSE 100
7,734.2 +0.15%
Dow Jones
24,730.41 +0.10%
CAC 40
5,567.54 +0.26%



Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 78.26 +0.28%
Gasoline NYMEX 2.22 +1.06%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.82 -0.32%



BP
575.9 -0.23%


Shell A
2,677 -0.52%


Shell B
2,747 -0.92%

YET TO CONVINCINGLY BREAK THRU THE 2775 BARRIER

[grupo] 16/5/2018 14:37

Today: Wednesday 16 May 2018
More charts from the Total Exchange


PARIS (Agefi-Dow Jones) - Oil-and-gas values stand out in the European markets on Wednesday after a favorable note from Morgan Stanley. The broker says he prefers oil majors service companies because of rising oil prices and demand in their end markets. Morgan Stanley is buying on TechnipFMC, Tenaris, PGS, Hunting, Saipem, CGG and Vallourec. Saipem leaps 9.3%, TechnipFMC takes 3.5%, Tenaris 2% while the producers Total and Royal Dutch Shell fall back with the price per barrel.


-Philip Waller, The Wall Street Journal ed .: VLV


Agefi-Dow Jones The financial newswire


(END) Dow Jones Newswires


May 16, 2018 08:52 ET (12:52 GMT)