Shell Share Discussion Threads

[steve73] 16/12/2017 07:42

montyhedge 15 Dec '17 - 09:18 - 1782 of 1786

I thought the crack pipeline was under the North Sea, but is that right it’s on land, surely that can be fixed quite quickly.

>>>>>>>>>>>..

Monty, I'm pretty sure that it's not "on" land, but buried a few feet down... At least I never saw any evidence of it when I lived up there.

This means it must have been a pretty bad leak to have seeped to the surface, and I'm wondering if they'll need to excavate and inspect the entire land section (although they'll probably be allowed to restart before it's fully checked, as this could take many months - until/if they found anymore leaks).

I'm not sure if an intelligent "inspection" pig can be used to check it internally, or whether this would pick up a small crack.. Do we have any inspection/pigging engineers here?

[pvb] 15/12/2017 20:09

Well... it's one of them thar ADVFN 'Innovations', innit? :-[

[wad collector] 15/12/2017 19:42

Anyone know why all my BB lists have become headed by 5 greyed out nonsense BBs? Haven't changed any settings.

[the grumpy old men] 15/12/2017 16:05

The biggest voices in oil disagree on 2018 outlook
By Grant Smith on 12/15/2017

LONDON (Bloomberg) -- The two most critical forecasts of global oil markets offer contrasting visions for 2018: one in which OPEC finally succeeds in clearing a supply glut, and another where that goal remains elusive.

In the estimation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, production curbs by the cartel and its allies will finally eliminate the excess oil inventories that have depressed crude prices for more than three years. But in the view of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises consumers, that surplus will barely budge.

“Both cannot be right,” said Ole Sloth Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank A/S in Copenhagen. “Whichever way the pendulum swings will have a significant impact on the market.”

OPEC and Russia have eliminated almost two-thirds of a global glut this year as the former rivals jointly constrict their crude production to offset a boom in U.S. shale oil. At the heart of the clash between the 2018 forecasts is whether the alliance can deplete the rest of the overhang without triggering a new flood of American shale.

Late last year, OPEC and Russia set aside decades of rivalry and mistrust to end a slump in global oil markets that has battered their economies. Defying widespread skepticism, they cut oil supplies as promised, and resolved on Nov. 30 to persevere until the end of next year. Brent crude climbed this week to a two-year high above $65/bbl, although prices had slipped to $63.37 as of 11:32 a.m. in London.

Both the IEA and OPEC agree that the coalition’s cuts are working. The surplus oil inventories in developed nations -- OPEC’s main metric for gauging success -- fell to 111 MMbbl in October, from 291 million last November, according to the Paris-based IEA, established in 1974 in the wake of the Arab oil embargo.

Happy New Year?

Where they diverge is on what happens next. OPEC predicts the re-balancing will be complete by late next year as those stockpiles plunge by about 130 MMbbl in 2018. By contrast, the IEA sees inventories remaining steady as new supply growth surpasses gains in demand. It warned OPEC on Thursday that it may be deprived of a “Happy New Year.”

Although both institutions project that demand for OPEC crude will be about 32.3 MMbpd on average in the first half of 2018, their views drift apart as the year progresses. OPEC expects it will need to pump about 34 million barrels day in the second half, while the IEA sees a requirement of just 32.7 MMbpd.

“They live in the same world for the first half of 2018, but divorce into separate universes for the second half,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultants Petromatrix GmbH in Zug, Switzerland. “OPEC believes in strong growth of oil demand; the IEA believes in strong growth of non-OPEC supplies.”

Diverging views

While OPEC expects rival supplies to expand by 1 MMbpd next year, the IEA forecasts non-OPEC to grow by 1.6 MMbpd. The difference partly lies in their conflicting views of the supply source that unleashed the glut OPEC is now battling to clear: U.S. shale oil. OPEC boosted estimates for U.S. crude production this week and now sees an expansion of 720,000 bpd next year. Still, the IEA’s forecast is about 20% higher.

“The uncertainty surrounding shale oil production for next year has resulted in very differing views on the 2018 fundamental picture,” said Tamas Varga, an analyst at PVM Oil Associates Ltd. in London.

When OPEC officials invited a range of experts to brief them on the U.S. shale outlook days before their Nov. 30 meeting, they were dismayed by the divergence of opinions, people familiar with the matter said. One of those experts, veteran crude trader Andy Hall, cited the unpredictability of shale as one reason for shuttering his flagship hedge fund this summer.

Shale limits

Saudi Arabian Minister of Energy and Industry Khalid Al-Falih, speaking at the OPEC meeting in Vienna, rejected the IEA’s outlook for 2018 as excessively pessimistic.

There are signs that the U.S. shale boom is slowing. Drillers may have reached the limits in terms of cutting costs and boosting productivity, and investors are finally insisting that profits are shared out rather than funneled back into supply growth.

Yet analysts from Citigroup Inc. to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Commerzbank AG warn that OPEC continues to underestimate the magnitude of the shale revolution.

American producers are rushing to lock in revenues as U.S. crude approaches $60 a barrel, enabling them to finance a new wave of drilling, data compiled by Bloomberg New Energy Finance show.

“The U.S. alone can achieve almost all of the supply growth that OPEC forecasts globally in 2018,” said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. “So, without question, the IEA’s forecast is more convincing.”

[montyhedge] 15/12/2017 09:18

I thought the crack pipeline was under the North Sea, but is that right it's on land, surely that can be fixed quite quickly.

[fjgooner] 14/12/2017 19:59

@waldron 1779

An excellent article - many thanks.

The key sentence in there, for me, is:

"the economics of complex deep-water projects have got so much better that they now sit lower on the cost curve than shale oil"

Shell's portfolio of deep-water assets really is so hugely impressive. The investments that have been made over the years are now reaping their just rewards.

See the Major projects on-stream section at


FJ

[waldron] 14/12/2017 14:54

Goldman says oil giants poised for best year in decades
By Kelly Gilblom and Nejra Cehic on 12/14/2017

LONDON (Bloomberg) -- Oil’s slump is over and industry domination beckons, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

In 2018, companies from Royal Dutch Shell Plc to ExxonMobil Corp. will find themselves with a surplus of cash to fund dividends, ruling the world of deepwater mega-projects and even coming out ahead in tax negotiations with oil-reliant governments around the globe, according to Michele Della Vigna, Goldman’s head of energy-industry research.

The industry’s success in cutting costs, paired with a low oil price that keeps smaller competitors out of the biggest projects, has created an environment where only major players can compete, Vigna said. That should bolster earnings and return the industry giants to a position of dominance not seen in 20 years.

“It’s a very exciting time,” Vigna said in an interview with Bloomberg television on Thursday. “We’re back to a concentrated market like we had in the 90s,” with the largest companies earning higher returns as the balance of power tips in their favor, he said.

Horrible history

Oil majors had already been struggling for years when crude prices crashed by more than 50% in 2014. Prices as high as $120/bbl just prior to the slump spawned a multitude of smaller competitors, each of which posed a new challenge to majors like BP Plc and Chevron Corp.

“That looked like a great time for the oil sector, but it was a horrendous time for Big Oil,” Vigna said. “Effectively everybody ate their lunch.”

After the commodity plunged three years ago, the market saw an overall retrenchment, with close to $1 trillion taken out of company spending, according to a report from consultant Wood Mackenzie Ltd. published Thursday. Concurrently, banks pulled back from lending to companies based on their oil and gas reserves, which mostly stung smaller players with weaker balance sheets, said Vigna.

That means 90% of mega-projects in the last three years were initiated by the seven largest oil and gas companies, according to Vigna’s analysis. In the prior 10 years, investments in the largest projects were split between 50 companies, he said.

This trend should continue because the economics of complex deep-water projects have got so much better that they now sit lower on the cost curve than shale oil, Vigna said. Big companies will find another benefit from the consolidation of power -- more leverage in negotiations with governments, including on taxation, he added.

New projects, as well as more stable prices, will help boost cash flow and put the super-majors’ finances back on a sustainable footing. Last month, Shell said it would pay its dividend entirely in cash for the first time in two years and BP started buying back shares. Vigna expected more companies will take similar steps in 2018.

“Now that the belt-tightening is done, companies are looking to deliver profitable growth and build for the future,” said Tom Ellacott, a senior V.P. at Wood Mackenzie. “The sector has reset itself to operate at lower commodity prices.”

[chiefbrody] 14/12/2017 12:15

Would rather the £ get stronger. Rate rises (lol) would be welcome on balance.Cheaper living/holidays outweigh my holding in Shell!Be it £1 - $1.30-50, i'm happy to hold Shell for the next decade.

[ariane] 14/12/2017 10:49

becareful what you wish

cost of living may increase especially on imported goods togetherwith interest rates

Not that you care monty,no doubt you have no debts and grow your own food and only
ocassionally pop down the fish and chip shop

[montyhedge] 14/12/2017 10:42

Just hope the £ does not get stronger.Makes profits and dividends lower.

[ariane] 14/12/2017 10:41

And others will be hoping and wishing or wishing and hoping for dividend increases

[waldron] 14/12/2017 04:32

cheers fj

i will be watching capex, debt reduction and use of cash for new projects especially

[waldron] 13/12/2017 07:47

Alliance News

PRESS: World Bank To End Funding For Oil & Gas Exploration By 2019
Wed, 13th Dec 2017 07:19


LONDON (Alliance News) - The World Bank is to end its financial support for oil & gas exploration within the next two years in response to the threat of climate change
, The Guardian reported on Tuesday.

In a statement at the 'One Planet' climate conference in Paris on Tuesday, the World Bank said it "will no longer finance upstream oil and gas" after 2019.

The Guardian noted the development bank ceased lending for coal-fired power stations in 2010 but has been under pressure from lobby groups to half its USD1.00 billion a year spending on oil & gas lending in developing countries.

The World Bank said it will continue to lend "in exceptional circumstance" but only in the very poorest countries and if the project does not conflict with the 2015 Paris climate change accord.

The newspaper said the World Bank is on course to have 28% of its lending go towards climate action by 2020. At present, between 1% and 2% of its USD280.00 billion portfolio is for oil & gas projects, it said.



By George Collard; [e-mail]

[waldron] 13/12/2017 07:18

Royal Dutch Shell Suspends Production on Two Offshore Oil and Gas Platforms
12/12/2017 5:58pm
Dow Jones News

Shell A (LSE:RDSA)
Intraday Stock Chart

Today : Wednesday 13 December 2017
Click Here for more Shell A Charts.

By Neanda Salvaterra



Royal Dutch Shell PLC said on Tuesday it has suspended production on two offshore oil and gas platforms following the shutdown of a major European oil transport node.

The British-Dutch oil giant confirmed that it has halted the flow of oil and gas from its Shearwater and Nelson platforms in the central North Sea as a result of the shutdown of the Forties Pipeline System owned by Ineos, a refining and chemicals company.

Ineos closed down the Forties Pipeline after a hairline crack worsened following its discovery Wednesday, south of Aberdeen, Scotland.

The company said pipeline repairs could take a "matter of weeks," during which Forties would remain out of commission.

The Forties Pipeline System carries about 445,000 barrels of crude a day through the North Sea, some of which is used to create the benchmark crude price known as Brent.

"We are working closely with the pipeline system operator, Ineos to assess the situation," said a spokesman for Shell.

Shell is one of several big firms that has been affected by the Forties closure.

Chevron North Sea Limited said on Tuesday that production has been halted on two of its gas-producing platforms in the North Sea, while BP PLC said Monday that it was temporarily shutting down production in three hubs at the request of Ineos.



Write to Neanda Salvaterra at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

December 12, 2017 12:43 ET (17:43 GMT)

[fjgooner] 13/12/2017 00:23

Re my post 1745 yesterday:

Shell has the relatively small Nelson installation out there as far as I know.

----

Shell also has the Shearwater platform that is affected as well. Both Nelson and Shearwater are now shut so oil via the broken Forties PS and gas via unaffected pipeline systems will remain offline.



Apologies for the omission yesterday.

FJ

[sarkasm] 12/12/2017 20:03

Alliance News

Crude Oil Rally Fizzles On Production Outlook
Tue, 12th Dec 2017 19:42


WASHINGTON (Alliance News) - Crude oil prices tumbled Tuesday amid widespread expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and signal further monetary policy tightening is imminent.

The Fed makes its latest interest rate announcement tomorrow afternoon.

WTI light sweet oil was down 85 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at USD57.14/bbl.

Also denting oil prices, the Energy Information Administration said it expects US crude production to rise by an average of 800,000 barrels a day next year.

The EIA now anticipates US oil prices could average USD57 a barrel in 2018, about USD2 per barrel higher than its previous forecast.

Producer prices in the US increased by slightly more than expected in the month of November, according to a report released by the Labor Department on Tuesday.

The Labor Department said its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.4% in November.

More importantly, excluding food and energy prices, the core producer price index rose by 0.3% in November after climbing by 0.4% in October.

Consumer price figures are out tommorow morning, followed by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at 2pm ET.

Copyright RTT News/dpa-AFX

[waldron] 12/12/2017 17:53

chuckle you from the north, marra

i picked up the craic when working on the motorways with guys from yorkshire

always pulled my leg about me not having travelled no further than watford gap

[2hoggy] 12/12/2017 17:41

No the craic is always here...

[waldron] 12/12/2017 17:36

SILLY ME

I THOUGHT THE CRACKS WERE AT SEA