Shaft Sink Share Discussion Threads

[muckshifter] 23/12/2014 13:21

Thanks Calahan, and ferrism. I've always regarded bulletin boards as a forum for sharing knowledge, rather than trying to influence the share dealing of others for your own benefit, which seems to be the norm here on advfn, unfortunately.

For years I only posted on tmf, because that was where I found posters who gave valuable insight into things such as the oil exploration industry, and banking, where I lacked knowledge, and I responded by posting anything useful that I could - usually related to the construction industry. The idea that "research" consists of reading the opinions of journalists, tipsters, and company analysts, is laughable, imho, but you can get real insight from the posts of intelligent people within an industry.
Regards.

[calahan] 22/12/2014 14:26

muckshifter

I too am one of the read-only crowd that RT refers to. And like ferrism and RT, I too would like to thank you for your input and analysis on SHFT (and the sector in general) that you have been providing. And even though I long ago sold out of SHFT and chalked one up to experience, I continued following this thread solely to read your posts. And this is despite having no intention of ever investing in SHFT again, or likely even the sector.

But I continued to follow because I am always appreciative of someone with obvious knowledge who is willing to share it (and for seemingly no purpose other than to enlighten others). As this not only increases my own understanding of the subject matter (even if I never intend to make use of this knowledge), but for potentially future purposes, it also gives you some excellent points in my book in relation to the eternal 21st century struggle of "is this random guy on the internet talking wisdom or rubbish?". And so the knowledge you've displayed could easily be beneficial to me in the future should I happily come across you again on an investment forum. So you also have my thanks for making a potentially future task easier for me.

And finally, I thank you for your posts because they serve as a good example to me of someone who 'obviously knows what they are talking about', and in doing so makes it easier for me to find such posts in the future (due to having an additional example for comparison). I place good value on such posts given what a rare and precious find they can be, not least due to having to swim in an endless, bottomless ocean of trash to find them. Since 'finding someone on the internet talking rubbish' might well be classified as the worlds easiest task (ever?).


So please know there are people who do (and have) appreciate your posts on this thread, and the undoubted effort you put into writing them. And even if nobody posts to say as such, or if people post to berate you, rest assured that there is very likely a silent majority who are undoubtedly thankful for your posts, and thankful to you for sharing your knowledge and insight. Even if, like me, they are not actually invested in SHFT, nor have any intention of doing so in future. People might be thankful for your posts for a variety of different reasons, but know that they are thankful none-the-less.

Thank you for all your posts muckshifter. Very much appreciated.

(and now I must return to my silent way of internet life)

[ferrism] 22/12/2014 13:10

I would be one of those 5-10, RCT. I appreciate muckshifter's candour and clear analysis even though I no longer hold SHFT. It's good to know someone is prepared to do the work for the benefit of other holders.

[rcturner2] 22/12/2014 11:43

ms, according to advfn, there are about 5-10 readers for every poster, so there will be a lot of people who have read your comments and won't have replied.

[papillon] 22/12/2014 11:33

You'd have to be a brave man to buy SHFT, bearing in mind it's parlous financial situation.

[rcturner2] 22/12/2014 08:06

Muckshifter, many thanks for your analysis on this thread. I have found it particularly useful over time.

[muckshifter] 19/12/2014 15:02

Forgot to say that apparently the shaft contractor is scheduled to begin mobilisation mid May, which would mean that tenders must be well on their way towards submission by now. But I believe there was an RNS from Sirius the other day indicating a likely delay to planning permission, which would unfortunately push commencement into the beastie mating seasons with lots of potential consequences.
Share price looks a bit shakey on the graph above, obviously shft have to survive their current troubles first.
Regards.

[hedgehog 100] 11/12/2014 18:08

Muckshifter,

Regarding your blatant lies and trolling on TGL: you really should get some treatment for your very severe mental problems - for your own sake.

Your dishonesty though is probably incurable, considering your advanced age.

It's sad though that you are so thick that you believe that intelligent posters
are actually taken in by your dishonest nonsense, or indeed are interested in it.

[muckshifter] 01/12/2014 11:36

A few thoughts for shft holders. I believe that work on tender submissions for the shafts, certainly for the critical two big deep ones, at Sirius’ York Potash site, are underway. On the main site there are two big shafts up to 1500m deep, two much shallower smaller ventilation shafts and a requirement for a major starter underground space for initial processing and transporting to the docks of the potash, which will presumably also be used as the starting point for the material transport tunnel. Thyssen are involved, as I would assume are shft. This is why I half expect an announcement about a JV with O’Rourke, to give the client confidence in the shft bid, no matter what the result of the arbitration with Eurochem might be.

The ground at that main site is very wet, and there is a major aquifer deep in the shaft lines, and also some expanding clays at very deep levels, I believe, but I don’t think there is anything which would prevent the shft system from working. It does, however, make me wonder how shft thought they could apply the same techniques that they had used in Boulby 40 years earlier (just down the road), to what I think were entirely different conditions at the Eurochem site.

If shft survive their current cash crisis and the arbitration, the York potash job would potentially be a great one for them to win, as there are also three other shallower shafts on intermittent sites between the minehead and the docks, although not on the same scale as the two main shafts. Always assuming of course that York Potash get planning permission, after perhaps a minor hiccup or two, and the cash needed to pay for the project.
Regards.

[muckshifter] 20/11/2014 18:08

Interesting times for shft coming up. Tenders are out for the site preparation contract, which will include access and platform preparation for the mineshafts, at the Sirius York Potash mine, aiui. I believe planning permission is due for determination in January, with the award of the preparation contract needing to be very soon after that for various environmental reasons.
This project originally used shft’s work to fix the budget for the main shafts, iirc. If PP comes through on time, which I doubt, the intention would be to mobilise shaft work mid 2015, I believe. So the contractor’s pricing exercise for approximately six shafts will probably be underway now, together with consideration of financing options by Sirius.
My understanding is that three shafts will be wide and deep ones through the main aquifer, which would be the ones shft would be most interested in presumably.

If you remember the 2013 AR, shft mentioned that they were discussing a design JV with Laing O’Rourke for these shafts, but it hasn’t been mentioned since. L O’R is a very big contractor in Oz and the UK, with the sort of financial muscle that would reassure Sirius if they were a “jointly and severally” liable JV partner with shft in tendering for the construction of the deep shafts. These tenders are coming at a time when shft are on their knees and probably could not get any more bond facilities in their own right. Bond requirements will almost certainly be severe, and required, for these shafts as the key elements of the critical path for the project,.

So, if shft survive their current cash crisis, watch this space for an announcement.
Regards.

[muckshifter] 23/10/2014 12:10

A terse, but not unexpected, RNS, indicating that shft are having trouble achieving all they needed to do as part of the loan / convertible issue. The original announcement made the deal look a real “dogs breakfast” with far too many approvals, agreements, etc to be finalised in a relatively short timespan, imho. Then approx. five weeks later the amount of the loan was increased by 40%+ which no doubt meant further negotiation / approvals in terms of collateral pledges etc..

We are not being told what the cause of the delay is, out of umpteen possibilities. But the timetable now looks very tight to complete the issue of the convertibles before the 21st November specified date for repayment of the loan, with failure to achieve that date perhaps triggering the 20% payment to Hillside, which would be £1m. If that occurred, I believe it would most probably mean that Hillside would be asked to take a further tranche of convertibles as payment, which should effectively put them over the 50% mark in terms of ownership on conversion. Either way it’s a further £1m cost to shft if it gets triggered.
Regards.

[hedgehog 100] 22/10/2014 18:44

22/10/2014 07:01 UKREG Shaft Sinkers Holdings Plc Funding Update

"The Company provides an update with regards to the proposed GBP9.2 million issue of convertible loan notes (the "Convertible Loan Notes") announced on 22 August 2014.

Discussions with potential investors are continuing and the Company is preparing a circular to convene a general meeting to approve the issuance of the Convertible Loan Notes. However, the Company will not now be ready to post the circular to shareholders by 22 October 2014 as previously expected. The Company now expects to post the circular by 5 November 2014."

[muckshifter] 08/10/2014 11:16

Hmm, three deaths on three different contracts in under two months for this size of company looks ominously like the relegation of the importance of safety procedures, in the face of a desperate financial situation.

Hope not, and I hope there are no more incidents, as a death on the job is both a tragedy amongst the crew, and a blow to productivity for weeks.

[hedgehog 100] 03/10/2014 16:30

01/10/2014 07:00 UKREG Shaft Sinkers Holdings Plc Funding Update and Impala 17 Tender

"The Company announces that Hillside International Holdings Limited ("Hillside") has agreed to expand the quantum of funds made immediately available to the Company from GBP 3.5 million to GBP 5 million under the terms of the non-interest bearing loan facility (the "Hillside Loan"), previously announced on 22 August 2014. In addition, the Company has agreed a further GBP 3.0 million bank guarantee facility in relation to its contract with TNK Kazchrome JSC. The facility, which requires the Company to hold deposits in the bank, will run for the entire life of the Kazchrome project and is secured against the assets of Shaft Sinkers Kazakhstan LLP.

Preparations to raise up to GBP 9,200,000 by way of a proposed issue of convertible loan notes (the "Convertible Loan Notes") are continuing and will be amended to reflect the increase in the Hillside Loan. It is intended that part of the proceeds of the Convertible Loan Note offer will be used to repay the Hillside Loan entirely and Hillside will, accordingly, subscribe GBP 5,000,000 for Convertible Loan Notes. In all other material respects, the details of the Hillside Loan and Convertible Loan Notes set out in the announcement of 22 August 2014 are unchanged.

The proposals relating to the Hillside Loan and Convertible Loan Notes are subject to regulatory and shareholder approvals. The Company intends to post a circular to shareholders by 22 October 2014 and thereafter to complete the refinancing package by November 2014.

As announced in April 2014, the Company and Impala Platinum Limited ("Impala") revised the terms of the Impala 17 contract to more equitably share risks between the two parties following significant losses incurred on the project by Shaft Sinkers. The revised contract terms covered the period until October 2014 in order to allow Impala time to retender the contract. Shaft Sinkers participated in the retender process but has been notified by Impala that its bid was not successful and the Company's work at Impala 17 will therefore terminate on 15 December."

[ga11amar] 17/9/2014 19:06

no interest.

made 20%. the payoff of the court case win are now massively dilute. not worth the punt

[ga11amar] 17/9/2014 19:06

no interest.

made 20%. the payoff of the court case win are now massively dilute. not worth the punt

[nehpets81] 10/9/2014 11:18

Hedgehog - Yeah, I am not in a position to risk another £7,200 on this punt.

Buywell - As sad as the news is, I can't see that it will have a particularly material impact on SHFT. Fatalities are not unknown and that Impala contract has been a bit of a disaster in general in recent times so the impact of any stoppages wouldn't be as bad as at some others.

[buywell2] 08/9/2014 14:20

Another legal case perhaps ?

[21trader] 08/9/2014 08:54

Sold out on that news today.

[hedgehog 100] 07/9/2014 16:49

Price Price Change [%] Bid Offer Open High Low Volume
11.50 0.25 [2.22] 11.25 11.75 11.25 12.00 11.25 135,038
Market Cap. [m] Shares In Issue [m] Beta EPS DPS PE Ratio Yield 52-Wks-Range
5.46 47.50 0.32 4.14 - 2.78 - 24.38 - 5.88

"In the event that GBP9,200,000 is raised by way of an issue of Convertible Loan Notes and in the event that all Convertible Loan Notes are converted into ordinary shares in the Company, the percentage of voting rights represented by these shares would be equivalent to approximately 78%."

With 47.5M. shares currently in issue, that means potentially 215.9M. shares in issue, giving a market cap. of £24.8M. at the current share price of 11.5p.


With SHFT currently at 11.5p, and the convertible loan note offer next month at an effective subscription price of 5.5p, the offer is at a greater than 50% discount to the current share price (ignoring the time value of money - the notes can only be converted after a year, and within three years).

And with current shareholders receiving priority, and with a subscription of EUR 5 million of notes available to them, there should be a good chance of shareholders receiving at least some allocation they apply for.

The issue price is £7,200 per note though, which is more than many retail shareholders would wish to subscribe.