Shaft Sink Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 23/5/2013 15:21

FFS - give it a rest both of you - we're not interested! Take your squabble elsewhere and keep this board free for informed and intelligent posts about Shaft and their market.

[wylecoyote] 23/5/2013 05:24

HH, what is wrong with you? Muckshifter has his point of view and you have yours...this is only a BB. You have to justify your own position and attempt to discredit muckshifter by making 3 times as many posts and finding superflous details in old posts (do you have obssessive manic condition ?). Yup took out a short before the results, don't have to tell anyone, it was a risk and could have back fired. The removal of the dividend enabled me to keep the short open.

[ivyhuang] 22/5/2013 23:23

COOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL............................................................down

[muckshifter] 22/5/2013 19:22

Hello again Hedgehog,
Again you try to deliberately "misinterpret" posts of mine. The post you refer to on IOF thread absolutely did not call the people there trolls. If you really think it did, rather than you are just doing your regular twisting of facts, you should read the posts on that board again, carefully.

And I haven't suggested that shft employees have been guilty of corruption or false accounting, I've said that I believe they stand accused of corruption, and false accounting is possible at many levels in this industry. In terms of the "blame game" between IMR and shft in response to accusation of corruption, aiui, by Eurochem, I've made the point that I don't believe either could have acted without the full knowledge of the other, particularly as the present CEO was both a shft executive director and an employee of IMR at the time of the negotiations.

And again, you can't resist personal attacks and twisting of other peoples words, rather than dealing with facts, can you. You have to call me a mendacious deramper.
Regards.

[technofiend] 22/5/2013 16:43

When prices move big on no news that is often indicative of insider buying or selling.

That said, it's not as if those insiders are always right.

I still think this could go lower but I expect it would take some drastic negative news to do that. It last reached the levels right after the Eurochem claim was announced and the strikes and rioting miners were kicking off in South Africa.

[hedgehog 100] 22/5/2013 16:27

SHFT's market cap. is now just £14.37 million at 30.25p - an absolute steal at these levels!

I predict a strong rise as bargain hunters move in.

Any shorters should be badly squeezed.

[wylecoyote] 22/5/2013 14:40

Rather predicatable really, have it short from 43.00p. May buy from 20.0p.

[technofiend] 22/5/2013 10:42

9% down today.

People are selling in anticipation of news coming?

[buywell2] 22/5/2013 10:18

dead cat confirmed .....

buywell2 9 May'13 - 11:57 - 1953 of 1961 0 0 edit

The recent bounce was of the 'dead cat' variety it would seem

[cocomac0] 21/5/2013 19:22

Yep......... totally fed up of muckshifters comments now, there's absolutely no way I believe him when he says he has no financial investment in the company. He must spend hours and hours on this company and it just is not credible what he says about no financial interest, only personal interest.

He's damaging to the share price of a company I am invested in, and it's made all the worse for the way he's tactically negative about it, not too much at once, also maybe taking a slightly different tone at the end of a post to soften the negativity, and to disguise it a little. He's also a bit of a smartypants who knows he knows more than almost anyone in the BB about mining, he uses this to his advantage by going into details nobody really understands to give his opinions more weight, and to make it hard for anyone to take on his arguements with any real authority.

Come on mate........ put your cards on the table and show your true colours, or just get lost please. Stop bashing a share price I'm invested in. Your comments regarding this year being a question of survival are really over egging it.

Cheers. Peace out.

[hedgehog 100] 21/5/2013 19:15

FTSE 350 Mining Index NMX1770:




Shaft Sinkers:




It's interesting to note that SHFT at 33p is near the bottom of its medium-term trading range, which for about seven and a half months has been a range in mainly from the low 30s to the high 40s.

The dip to below 33p in October, which like now was on low volume, was prelude to a strong rebound.


For much of this period SHFT has performed broadly comparably to the FTSE 350 Mining Index NMX1770, which obviously consists of significantly larger companies, which is I believe a testament to SHFT's operational turnaround and quality.

SHFT is actually in the support services sector but can't escape poor mining sector sentiment entirely. But this should recover, and quality shares such as SHFT should be the beneficiaries.

Its secure income on long-term contracts means that it has far more secure revenues than a drilling company like CAPD, and in time this should be rewarded by the market.

[hedgehog 100] 21/5/2013 18:44

A reminder of some recent expert technical anaylsis on SHFT, from ADVFN's respected chartist Melfaraj on his thread "Faraj List of Exploding Stocks 9.10 (FAR9)":


melfaraj 25 Apr'13 - 06:43 - 1376 of 1460 0 0

"hedgehog:shft

first i thought you were being plain rude or pulling my leg, but no. the company started life towards the very end of yr 10. it has not done well as the stock has crashed badly and now lain in the doldrum near the bottom at support level.
the chart is saying investors are keeping calm awaiting results. pretty nothing much is happening.
there are however expectant investors following the stock keenly as betold by the volume spikes here and then which have seen the stock propelled to new height, but nowhere to levels of its heydays.
i suggest you wait and see. but there is strong support at current levels. so i do not expect a disaster from current levels to happen."

[hedgehog 100] 21/5/2013 18:16

'Muck-smearer',

Your points about companies potentially 'faking' their accounts, concealing losses etc., could potentially apply to any share in the stockmarket, presumably also the ones you hold. It therefore isn't an argument for not investing in SHFT, but an argument for not investing in shares at all ... or at least diversifying, as such occurrences are very rare. That suggests to me that you are biased, and have an agenda, which manifests itself in using classic troll smear and scare tactics.

Most sensible posters should filter out your bilious nonsense, but I personally will not as I feel a responsibility to rebut it as and when necessary to help more gullible readers.

You complain about me supposedly being too positive (although you're clearly biased), but in all of your numerous and often lengthy postings I only recall you ever saying one positive thing about this company, on a relatively minor aspect!

So why do you appear to be negatively obsessed with a share that you do not own? Your motivation isn't necessarily your own personal finances ... Do you work for a competitor? Or have you had a bad experience with the company in the past ... perhaps even being a disgruntled ex-employee? There seems to me to be an element of obsessive compulsive disorder in your relentless attacks on this company - increasingly desperate attacks now that it's turnaround is well underway.

As someone who has studied accountancy at university I am very comfortable with the company's accounts.

And one must consider the risk-reward ratio: any risk here is in the context of a market cap. of currently £15.68M. (at 33p): which is barely a third of net assets and under a twelfth of turnover, for a highly-profitable and long-established company with about 7,500 employees, fantastic long-term growth profits, barriers to entry, secure revenues on long-term contracts, etc.
But I think that you probably know that don't you.

[hedgehog 100] 21/5/2013 17:48

SHFT's AGM is now fairly close - just two weeks on Friday:

"The Annual General Meeting of the Company will be held at the offices of Jones Day, 21 Tudor Street, London EC4Y on Friday 7 June 2013 at 11.00am."

It should be a good opportunity to quiz management on any issues investors may have.

I don't think that I can make it, but if anyone can I'm sure that we would appreciate a report back please.

[muckshifter] 21/5/2013 12:35

As I'm sure I've mentioned before, shft's accounts are very very difficult to make sense of. With most companies I can understand them although I'm obviously not an accountant, but shft's have me a bit baffled.

What I have noticed though, is that shft also seem to struggle to report consistently. For example, on 1st June 12 they stated that they expected to have a net debt of £4m at the end of June approx 4 weeks later (interims), but the actual interims to end June stated net debt of £8.6m.
Similarly, the net debt at end of 2012 was stated in IMS of 13th February, ie six weeks after year end, to be £2.8m and then in the finals £2.1m.

The shuffling of cash /costs/ liabilities etc. related to Eurochem is also difficult to understand. But, assuming the shft "claim" of £15m against Eurochem represents the full outstanding cost, with profit added, for the Eurochem work after unilaterally taking the advance payment as part payment of outstanding amounts (it was a loan supposed to be deducted progressively as the job was done), the debt position over the last year looks quite dangerous. They have the £15m booked against Euro as an unpaid debt which presumably was incurred in or mostly well before the first half of 2012 , as opposed to £30m of advanced payments on new jobs between August 12 and year end and £23m of "claims" paid since November 12, but net debt is still shown as £7m on 17th May 13 (although I don't think that takes into account the escrow £1.9 – which if anything makes it worse).

The overall impression I get from the accounts reinforces my long stated opinion that it is now a matter of survival for shft. This extract from the year end accounts seems to indicate that without new bank arrangements shft are likely to breach covenants at end of June: "In line with the circumstances during the current financial year the Group will likely require the continued support of its bankers with regard to relaxation of covenant requirements should renegotiation of facilities not be finalised prior to the next measurement date. Based on experience to date, Management have concluded that this is likely."

No mention is made of the negotiations in the latest IMS.

The two major international contracts paid £30m+ in advances last year, without which would shft have survived, I wonder. Shft will have been well aware of that cash need, so I hope it didn't weigh too heavily on their estimators pricing that work, or subsequently their current "pipeline".

If there are any accountants here it would be interesting to hear your views.
Regards.