Severfield Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 05/2/2019 07:33

01/02/2019 | 6:29 p.m.
The EUR / CHF pair is attracting our attention these days as volumes are historically high in the retail market, a factor that is often a predictor of squeeze.
Since a few sessions, the Euro Franc Switzerland is the second most treated pair *, just behind EUR / USD, the leading pair in the foreign exchange market. The sizes engaged by retail investors have never been greater since the famous floor of the SNB, previously set at 1.20 CHF. Positions at 96% short *, that is to say, betting massively on a decline in the price, with an average entry price of 1.1340 CHF. A configuration that imbalances available liquidity and dries up order books, mainly when the currency market is the least active.

* figures collected from several online brokers, constituting a representative sample of the market of speculators, acting mainly on a very short-term horizon and with a strong leverage effect

The last time such extremes were found, against a backdrop of extraordinary volumes, was early 2019. The phenomenon was even double since both the Yen was totally abandoned while the Australian Dollar was attracted the almost unanimous favor of private traders. Result: 98% of the retail market was long AUDJPY and a simple warning from Apple on the content of its quarterly results in Asian session, the least liquid period of the day, has plunged the pair of 8% in minutes. A flash crash and a wave of margin calls later, prices found the impetus to return to their original level in just a few hours.

Graphically, in case of squeeze, the pair could temporarily delete several successive levels at 1.1475, 1.1548, 1.1623 and 1.1704 CHF. This will depend on the context: catalysts, available liquidity, behavior of the Euro intrinsically, activity of the SNB. The Swiss National Bank has never hidden regularly intervene in the market to buy euros and press the franc down. She would certainly be one of the big winners of a flash crash of the Swiss currency.

Finally, we are not trying to predict the future here. We do not claim that this or that event will occur. We simply evaluate a probability and find that the conditions are largely met to be wary of the behavior of the pair in the days or even weeks to come. The market must find a balance and liquidity books. One way or another.

A long squeeze would trigger margin calls on a large proportion of retail accounts, a profitable event for counterparties before a return to the previous level.

A decline in the pair right now would, however, allow private traders to cash profits, a scenario also possible, a credible hypothesis but the probability infinitely lower, especially given the volumes engaged at this stage by the professional industry .

[ariane] 03/2/2019 08:32

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.1405CHF
+0.0024+0.21%

[waldron] 01/2/2019 16:45

1.1404CHF
+0.0023+0.20%

[waldron] 30/1/2019 07:00

1.1389CHF
+0.0019+0.17%

[florenceorbis] 29/1/2019 09:39

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.1345CHF
+0.0008+0.07%

[waldron] 28/1/2019 09:15

EUR CHF 1.1317 -0.0011

[sarkasm] 26/1/2019 09:25

EUR CHF 1.1331 +0.0001

[waldron] 22/1/2019 16:11

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.1330CHF
-0.0006-0.05%

[waldron] 15/1/2019 09:06

EUR CHF 1.1266 +0.0017

[the grumpy old men] 14/1/2019 11:19

EUR CHF 1.1265 -0.0021

[waldron] 13/1/2019 09:32

EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.1284CHF
-0.0037-0.33%

[waldron] 11/1/2019 16:47

EUR / CHF 1.12777 -0.39%

[adrian j boris] 11/1/2019 08:10

1.1327CHF
+0.0006+0.05%

[sarkasm] 09/1/2019 10:14

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.1229CHF
+0.0001+0.01%

[waldron] 09/1/2019 08:41

EUR CHF 1.1242 +0.0015

[waldron] 09/1/2019 08:40

In the red
Central bank faces loss of CHF15 billion
This content was published on January 9, 2019 8:46 AM Jan 9, 2019 - 08:46
SNB President Thomas Jordan

SNB President Thomas Jordan looks back on a weak annual results following a bumper year in 2017.
(Keystone)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) says it expects to report a loss of about CHF15 billion ($15.3 billion) for 2018, mainly because of a weak performance of foreign currency positions.

In a report on provisional annual calculations, the SNB said on Wednesday that the federal and cantonal authorities would nonetheless still benefit a CHF2 billion payment – two-thirds of which will go to the 26 cantons.

Observers said the annual result was widely expected as the SNB reported a loss of nearly CHF8 billion in September. The leading Swiss commercial bank, UBS, on Monday estimated the central bank loss at CHF14 billion.

“After taking into account the distribution reserve of CHF67.3 billion, the net profit will be in the region of CHF47 billion,” the SNB said in a statementexternal link.

The result allows a dividend payment of CHF15 per share, according to the bank.

A detailed report on the annual result is due to be released at the beginning of March.

Last year, the SNB reported a record surplus of CHF54.4 billion.
SNB chairman Thomas Jordan
SNB meets government
Swiss franc still highly valued, but no policy change

The Swiss franc, investment in arms, and the housing market were some of the issues the government discussed with the SNB chairman.
This content was published on November 7, 2018 12:32 PM

swissinfo.ch/ug

[waldron] 02/1/2019 15:56

EUR CHF 1.1224 -0.0089

[la forge] 01/1/2019 17:27

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.1218CHF
-0.0037-0.33%

[florenceorbis] 27/12/2018 08:50

EUR CHF 1.1303 -0.0011

[waldron] 26/12/2018 11:56

EUR CHF 1.1270 -0.0043

[florenceorbis] 22/12/2018 06:59

EURCHF:CUR
EUR-CHF X-RATE
1.1300CHF
-0.0008-0.07%