Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[davethehorse] 14/6/2024 08:06

Free falling...

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 07:51

SQZ Ex-Div in less than 2 weeks - 1st of 2 Annual Dividends for 14p

At today's price of 140p a yield of 10%. Just based on the upcoming dividend and a full year Dividend yield approaching 20%

Assuming share price drops a further 14p from current share price of 140p when SQZ goes ex-div Enterprise Value for Mid-Guidance 43,000 boe/d a day is a paltry US$532 million nearly half of 2023 revenue of US$928 million and less than half of forecast 2024 revenue!!!

Enterprise Value at a share price of 126p for 43,000 Boe/d net cash SQZ is US$532 million - INCREDIBLY LOW CONSIDERING NEGLIGIBLE DECOMMISSIONING COSTS AND TAX ASSETS VIA TAILTRASH DEAL.

SQZ as a whole is now worth nearly 35% less than what it paid for Tailwind. THIS WHEN FLEGG AND SQZ BOARD SHOULD HAVE BEEN COGNIZANT THAT LABOUR WAS FAR AHEAD IN THE POLLS AND THEIR O&G POLICIES WERE ALREADY ANNOUNCED. Bonuses and shares should be clawed back from Flegg, Management and the SQZ Board!!! In a just world MF should be behinds bars!!!

SP-> 126.00p
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week low of 140p on 14 June 24-> -10.00%
SQZ Current Share Price vs 52 Week High of 271p on 18 Sep 23-> -53.51%
Brent-> $82.50
British Gas Prices (Next Month)-> £83.50
Shares Outstanding-> 393,468,408
GBPUSD-> 1.273
MarketCap GBP-> £495,770,194
MarketCap USD-> $630,867,572
Cash GBP [Including GBP27.5mn of Decom security deposit reimbursed in 2024] per FY 2023 Results-> £291,000,000
Cash USD (31 Dec 23)-> $370,297,500
Debt (GBP) (31 Dec 23)-> £213,000,000
Debt (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $271,042,500
NET CASH (USD) (31 Dec 23)-> $99,255,000
NET CASH % of SP/Market Cap-> 15.73%
Net Cash Component of SQZ Share Price-> 19.82p
Enterprise Value (In USD)-> $531,612,572
2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> 43,000
SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> 45,400
Production Actual 2023 [Guidance 2023 Mid-Point (40-45kbpd)]-> 40,121
Enterprise Value/Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance Production [2024 Guidance 41-48kbpd]-> $12,363
EV/Barrel SQZ YTD Production [1 Jan to/Including 14 Apr 24]-> $11,710
EV/Barrel Actual Average 2023 Production-> $13,250
Decommissioning Provision (Per FY 23 Results)-> $148,284,425
EV/Barrel Mid-Guidance 2024 Production including Decommissioning Provision-> $15,812
(9p+14p) 2024 Full Year Expected Dividend Yield-> 18.25%
SQZ Net Payout Yield (Dividend + Buybacks (2024 GBP 15Mn) + Special Dividends) -> 20.37%
SQZ + Tailwind 2P Reserves as of 31 Dec 23-> 140,000,000
SQZ Combined Enterprise Value/2P Reserves-> $3.80

[ashkv] 14/6/2024 07:36

Tom Paul12 A few off the top of my head recentish recollections as to why I and most of those who are objective view IEA with a huge pinch of salt...

1) Can't even forecast yearly demand so future demand forecasts extremely low confidence. I caught Jeff Curie on Bloomberg TV H2 2023 describing how IEA's monthly reports have for the first 6-7 months of 2023 with each new monthly iteration revised upward full year 2023 demand. I verified the same and you can do so from the below link!!!



2) IEA forecasts out of line even with left leaning US government forecaster EIA. And of course the industry ->

3) Just this week a very non-realistic forecast of peak oil. A counterpoint / analysis of the forecast ->

4)Recently stating demand for 2024 is static to down while sneakily upwardly revising up prior year demand :)


IEA very much part of the liberal entrenched establishment Matrix!!! :)

tompaul13 Jun '24 - 14:52 - 6449 of 6474
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ashkv

Be careful with the !!! as you might run out of them. I would be interested to know why the IEA is held in poor regard.

[nhb001] 14/6/2024 07:26

Talking of climate hysteria.

[wolfofhounslow] 14/6/2024 07:22

All profits goes to taxman No value for shareholders

[cashisking76] 14/6/2024 06:56

Standard Chartered: Oil Markets Will Soon Face Significant Supply Deficits

StanChart has forecast 1.68 mb/d growth in 2024 and 1.41 mb/d in 2025.

StanChart has reiterated its previous assessment that not only can the markets absorb the extra barrels by OPEC+ producers but that a deficit is likely to appear in the latter part of the current year and carry over to 2025.

Following the post-OPEC+ meeting selloff, Standard Chartered pointed out that there’s no justification for selling at a pace that even surpasses during the pandemic.

[888icb] 14/6/2024 00:26

Climate Hysteria
Climate Hysteria is a term used by a lot of well regarded US commentators and I much prefer it to socialist climate crisis and climate emergency. Let’s start with some facts. More than 80% of global power is produced by fossil fuels and that is not going to change anytime soon. It is completely impossible for renewables to replace fossil fuels for decades if ever. All these so called fact checkers employed by the left wing media like BBC ITV Sky should be able to announce that the UK being renewable only by 2030 is an absolute impossibility and a lie. Sun not shining as happens every night and wind not blowing and there is very little renewable power and fossil fuels have to kick in to keep the lights on.

I am a big fan of renewables and in these summer months with my solar panels and Tesla Powerwall I take very little from the grid and supply it on occasions. In the winter it’s a very different story and the solar can’t fully recharge the battery.

My point is that we have to take a balanced and realistic approach recognising that Renewables have an important part to play but they can’t do it on their own. Destroying the energy security in very troubled times that we can have from the North Sea will be an act of economic sabotage by Starmer and Miliband( remember what a left wing climate nutter he was). They are a danger to this country just remember how relying on Russian gas in Europe sent our energy prices sky high.

This alone should make sure that people don’t vote for the socialist Labour Party or anyone else that would result in a Labour Government being returned.

Before a previous election when there was a possibility of a Labour victory The Sun had a headline “ Will the last person to leave Britain please turn the lights out”. Well just remember if Labour try and implement Great British Energy wasting £18.6 Billion the lights will be going off regularly as renewables only just can’t keep the lights on.

[yasx] 13/6/2024 22:41

That is how I see it Nigel - and with an acquisition sentiment will change

[nigelpm] 13/6/2024 22:21

Lots of emotion on here today but reality is it's ridiculously cheap now.

[sbb1x] 13/6/2024 21:35

Cons and Labour are hell bent on destroying the uk oil industry, only reform will change it

[yasx] 13/6/2024 19:45

Wally,

That is exactly right - the UK is not on a different planet or universe to the other countries.

That is why it is all too clear that this is just a scheme (a scam is more appropriate) implemented by the elites to destabilise UK/Europe etc. There is no logic to it.

However, as long as the public put up with it then the bandwagon rolls on.

[wallywoo] 13/6/2024 19:33

China and India have both opened dozens of new coal power stations in the last year. Which emits 60% more greenhouse gas than gas power stations. Population is 41x that of UKs 70 odd million (1.45B for India and China).


UK people need to understand that our oil and gas reserves make a tiny difference to global warming. Completely dwarfed by extra emissions in other countries.


We need to get away from this notion that stopping oil and gas production in the UK will save the planet. It is completely insignificant. We need to sensibly manage this resource over the next 30 years. Not quickly destroy the industry with tax and regulatory requirements. Closing our coal power stations has already put us streets ahead of others in reducing emissions.

[sawney] 13/6/2024 18:42

If Shell hint again about shifting to the Nasdaq...Ed's honeymoon period will be over pretty damn quickly...

[kibes] 13/6/2024 18:32

The wild eyed and crazy Ed Miliband is determined to make a name for himself as the man who shut down the North Sea. (They have a similar crackpot in Ireland who has successfully shut down oil and gas development there). I put him in the same camp as the Just Stop Oil protestors. It will end in absolute disaster of course as grid Net Zero is completely impossible by 2030, even if we wanted to do it which we don't. The Labour Party will be able to bamboozle the electorate by blaming '14 years of Tory rule' for a few years, but people aren't going to wear it when the lights go out!

[yasx] 13/6/2024 18:17

CC,

It would be remarkable if this hit 100p even considering the actions of the Govt. That would only be likely if global markets were to collapse imminently.

The yield at the current price is bound to attract market participants fairly soon.

[creditcrunchies] 13/6/2024 18:12

Talk about catching a falling knife it's literally crashing to 100p after XD if this trend continues. They urgently need a strategy to exit the UK

[cashisking76] 13/6/2024 18:00

When looking at fundamentals for both O&G industry and then Serica Energy, I strongly believe that today, SQZ is easily one of the most undervalued and oversold UK shares trading; Oilers are generally undervalued (especially in the UK markets) but current valuations of couple of UK Oilers (HBR, SQZ..) is undeniably mouthwatering/hard to resist in my humble opinion, please always DYOR!

[oilinvestoral] 13/6/2024 16:42

Who could've predicted this was going to happen! SMHAlways be careful of eager beaver optimists wielding their trusted spreadsheets (reality isn't created on excel)!

[davethehorse] 13/6/2024 15:54

Could be soon too

[wolfofhounslow] 13/6/2024 15:40

SP closed below 145Next stop 120's ouch

[sawney] 13/6/2024 15:27

On April 8, 2024, Sawan expressed concern about Shell's London listing as well as broader U.K. capital markets too, telling Bloomberg: "I have a location that clearly seems to be undervalued. If we work through the sprint [Shell's turnaround plan] and we are doing what we are doing, and we still don't see that the gap is closing, we have to look at all options....
He's also known to be fan of the New York Stock Exchange having told the BBC early on in his stewardship of Shell about the warm welcome extended to his company stateside at an investors' meeting where he laid out plans to cut costs and maximize profits. "The welcome we had there was exemplary. The Shell flag was waving next to the New York Stock Exchange flag," he said.
Sawan also added that the officials he had met there underlined his feeling that the U.S. was more supportive of oil and gas companies. "They said we continue to value a company that provides us the energy we desperately need......"


Can't imagine Shell are feeling particularly positive towards the Labour Party and the FTSE today...