Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 09/5/2024 07:09

Looks like it Croas - that's exactly why you have a buyback in place.

[croasdalelfc] 09/5/2024 06:07

Is someone offloading into the buyback - 381000 bought yesterday in one transaction . There have been several at 100k over the last few days

[mickinvest] 08/5/2024 15:14

IF they can get around £300m pre-tax profit, the question is what tax they will pay on that taking into account an estimated capex of £180m and Tailwind tax losses?

They'll probably need gas price to bump into at least 80p average and oil $80+ before hedges but I'd guess EPS will be far higher than the 29p in recent results. It would also see net cash increasing again with the lower taxation. You then have the bogeyman of Sir Keir threatening to reduce the capex tax deduction going forward so difficult to make forward projections but would be good to see someone give it a go?

[return_of_the_apeman] 08/5/2024 13:59

What are these "lots of investors" reasons for thinking this is a value trap?

SQZ paid out 23p in dividends during 2023 which were covered 3.27 times, what do you think the coverage is forecast to be this year?

Tia

[wallywoo] 08/5/2024 10:35

With such a high dividend (14p around 7% of the share price), it makes sense to buy as many shares as possible before these go XD on the 27th June. A £15m buyback and a average share price of 190p, works out about right at an average 200k shares a day. It's interesting to guess what the share price will be once this goes XD. Lots in investors currently thinking this is a value trap.

[bountyhunter] 08/5/2024 06:39

on 7 May 2024, it purchased 381,119 ordinary shares

not so small with shares being repurchased daily

I guess there are some parameters being applied to the repurchased shares behind the varying amounts.

[sawney] 08/5/2024 06:21

So looking at today's RNS...why are they buying in such small random amounts...?

[mrscruff] 07/5/2024 19:57

The answer is to cut the dividend to provide a buffer for M&A and buybacks. The windfall TAX is forever and we and the company need to adjust to this environment.

[bountyhunter] 07/5/2024 18:01

78% but that would be factored into the sale price and as you say Norway has political stability.

[thedudie] 07/5/2024 14:33

Kibes - that is a bit my feeling as well but I am no expert!
There are some advantages to Norway but they aren't transformational imo.

As I understand it the capital allowances act more immediately so 78% is refunded pretty much immediately in the current accounting period. On the flip side the capital allowances are higher here. The current allowances here will of course be cut once Labour are in power - maybe by removal of the unjustified( to Labour!) EPL tax break who knows maybe back to 40% ie well below the Norwegian model.

By far the biggest advantages would be stability - Hasn't been negative changes in Norway for 30 years apparently.

During Covid they were supportive encouraging companies to invest - any projects sanctioned between 2020 and up to end of 2023 seem to enjoy continued enhanced capital allowances now up to production start. So buying assets with recent sanction would be highly effective.

Other than that you only have to look at Acker BP and VAR ENERGI results to see the effect of their taxation. Var 2023 results give a flavour - 6.8B USD in revenue, giving 3.5B USD Op Profit which results in a 2.7B USD Tax payment and a Post tax profit of 610million USD.

All subject to correction etc...

[kibes] 07/5/2024 12:01

Tax rate at 75% in the UK is too high. So the answer must be to buy assets in Norway, where the tax rate is 78%? I don't get it.

[bountyhunter] 06/5/2024 18:59

In answer to my own question 20 December 2022. A bit later than I thought.

[bountyhunter] 06/5/2024 18:47

Interesting, I see that Serica has been the worst performer over the last couple of years since February 24 2022. When was the Tailwind acquisition first announced?

[melton john] 06/5/2024 18:14

Unlocked FT article

[mick_oi] 06/5/2024 17:41

hxxps://x.com/SericaEnergyplc/status/1787360369301745685



FT article posted by Serica on twitter first thing this morning: Windfall tax weighs heavy on North Sea producers

[oilinvestoral] 06/5/2024 15:51

SQZ had cash of ?456.849m and shares in issue of 272.953m so 167p a share.-----------Thanks Stemis So cash alone is almost the same as todays share price (18p/ share lower than todays Sp)Anyone want to hazard a guess at what assets flowing at 26,000 BOE would be worth (even at 50p / therm for gas)? 100p / share? 150p / share? 75p / share ? I rest my case!

[loafingchard] 06/5/2024 15:36

And they were never going to hand all of it over as a special divi, not in a million years.

[stemis] 06/5/2024 15:07

As at 31 December 2022, 3 months before the acquisition of Tailwind, SQZ had cash of £456.849m and shares in issue of 272.953m so 167p a share.

[oilinvestoral] 06/5/2024 12:56

“Serica would probably be sub ?1 without the deal. No?”


NO!!!! Because the more than £450!million in the bank and the fewer shares in issue would’ve been close to or more than the current share price! ALL other assets valued at ZERO!


Even at low gas price BKR Erskine et al must be worth something !!!!

[nigelpm] 06/5/2024 12:09

Totally agree al. This would be a super acquisition.

[bountyhunter] 06/5/2024 11:03

If they had returned the cash pile to shareholders as I advocated at the time of the Tailwind acquisition (and not made that deal) we would now have around £2/share including interest in the bank and hold the shares for free.
But we are where we are and looking outside of UK waters is sensible so long as not funded by cheap equity, but what is the tax rate in Norway, isn't it also very high? I suppose at least that would be a known and factored into the price and avoid the political turmoil of the UK.

[officerdigby] 06/5/2024 10:57

For the anti Tailwinders.Of which, initially, I was at least bemused by it!You'd have to say with the current gas price and tax environment, Serica would probably be sub £1 without the deal. No?How much revenue oil vs gas now? Maybe the gas price situation will turn around.Maybe, finally, real grown up green policies will be introduced? Low carbon local gas - will become political - it is possible. Just not now in the middle of political election year. The greens would have to get real. Imagine climate protestors focusing only on LNG imports. Campaigning for local gas (less CO2) - could it happen? Lols.Don't see point of buy back, but note that it is minimal.Hopefully, get some assets outside UK, now.

[bountyhunter] 06/5/2024 10:37

Thanks td.