Serica Energy Share Discussion Threads

[fanshaw] 27/3/2018 20:22

FTSE 100 UP 111.45

Serica - 0.20

Says it all

[fardels bear] 27/3/2018 20:13

See the Yanks are up to their usual stock market tricks again

[captainfatcat] 27/3/2018 18:38

I wonder how much of a factor the Forties Pipeline being shut down over the holiday period played in the wax build up perhaps the wax build up was expediential to static oil in the pipe. Perhaps a section is not buried or poorly insulated.

Hopefully some clarity will be shed on the problem on the 10th of April during the conference call. Fingers crossed the blockage we will be cleared and production online by then as well.

[dunderheed] 27/3/2018 18:01

Actually guys from my 'high level' viewpoint (ahem!) I thought all of the above were correct remedies of possible waxing but I also thought (probably incorrectly) the 'quality' of condensate and quantity included (hence chemical make up) within Columbus product was actually a major inhibitor of the wax deposits and this was specific to Columbus product hence, would have increased negotiation position as it would help to 'clean' as opposed to add to the waxing problems.
Or did I just dream all that up lol!
I am prepared to be shot down!

[bountyhunter] 27/3/2018 17:33

pity they didn't use one of those 'flow through' pigs! this wait for a resolution is longer than anticipated which doesn't help sentiment despite the relatively low proportion of current production affected

[fanshaw] 27/3/2018 16:58

The general concensus is that regular/routine pigging is essential to
prevent wax build-up, so would a 7km pipeline from Columbus to Lomond
or a 35km pipeline to Shearwater be easier to maintain. There is also
time scale and cost factor to be considered

[flyinghorse1] 27/3/2018 16:23

Fanshaw,
Normally there would be a thermally modeled pipeline program (Pipesim/GAP) or OLGA, where flow assurance issues can be predicted.
Pigging (not my specialist area but know enough) frequency would be decided on and strictly adhered to (some pigs are flow thru.
I assume the responsibility is Chrysaor's -its not an area you skimp on, or perhaps they are asleep at the wheel as you dont want your line to become unpigable.
The pipe may be thermally insulated(pipe in pipe with lagging) ,buried,and all modeled around the life of field, and the various condensate WAT (wax appearance temp)simulated for flowing conditions. Inhibitors may also be pumped before going in the line.

As the field gets older flow rates drop (faster cooling) or the various condy compositions change/comingle the original pipe (no idea what was put in) may now be causing more wax precipitation. The goal is to keep the wax in solution not on the pipe wall and to keep pipe clear buy frequent pigging if the initial design cant prevent it.
Perhaps someone with more specific knowledge can correct/ augment this.
FH

[oilretire] 27/3/2018 15:32

Primarily regular/frequent routine pigging of the pipeline

[fanshaw] 27/3/2018 15:28

If there is an anticipated problem with high waxing then the same problems
will occur where ever its linked up too. Ive always thought it was with the pipeline
and not the platform How do other companys manage this problem

[dunderheed] 27/3/2018 15:23

Oh dear Nigel how can you compare the three?
They are completely out of league with regard to comparable mgt. Lol.

[nigelpm] 27/3/2018 15:19

Loaded up some more.

Like SIA and OPHR this is right in bargain territory.

[oilretire] 27/3/2018 15:17

Nowt to do with Columbus really, but on the subject of Chrysaor, they've done a couple of deals over the last few days.

[fardels bear] 27/3/2018 15:11

Oh well, there's nowt in the share price for Columbus so whichever way it happens and with whatever percentage of equity it'll be a nice bonus when it does eventually get developed.

[dunderheed] 27/3/2018 15:00

Sorry or from 'my' (lol) perspective this is the most obvious route assuming the high condensate content of Columbus could 'help' with the waxing issues?
I've taken a very simplistic viewpoint on that though of course and you're right if this cant be solved then other routes do need to be looked at more 'seriously'. Best of luck all!

[fanshaw] 27/3/2018 14:58

chrysaor have done nothing of note since becoming owners of Shells North Sea
operations except having to deal with bursting pipe delays and stuck Pigs.
This would be good PR for them and Govts oil and Gas body plus profitable
and ensuring longer life for Lomond.

[oilretire] 27/3/2018 14:54

lol?? Didn't think it was that ludicrous? :-)

We'll see.......

Very happy if it went elsewhere. OK it's mega delayed, but if it had been tied back to Lomond as originally planned in 2014 or whenever it was supposed to be, it would be suffering the same fate as Erskine.....

[dunderheed] 27/3/2018 14:37

6274 lol obviously but that is probably best route (on what we know now?)

[oilretire] 27/3/2018 14:32

Chrysaor won't be a logical partner if it's tied back elsewhere.....

[dunderheed] 27/3/2018 14:30

FB you're not talking about eog the 'Irish pioneers' r u, as opposed to eog resources?

[dunderheed] 27/3/2018 14:29

I personally think Eog resources would not be interested in continuing Columbus investment and likely to want out, rather than in?
I'd prefer sqz got the partner stuff then could approach Chrys about a (whatever) 50 50 deal rather than 'double think' what Chrys are up to ie sqz be in change of their own destiny.

[fardels bear] 27/3/2018 14:14

I can't see that happening.. EOG isn't for sale..

[fanshaw] 27/3/2018 13:54

Possible Scenario Crysaor takes out Endeavour and Eog
and developes Columbus 50/50 solves a lot problems.

[flyinghorse1] 27/3/2018 11:52

In general I think its positive overall re columbus-Its been unitised, the OGA (i like to think) will have more teeth when it comes to ICOP. Crysaor being EV/Lomond operators ought to be good.

The main issues would appear to be partners-one with no cash and other with the asset not on their public radar despite owning 25%.

There may be sole risking provisions in the licence agreement/contracts that allow Serica to forge ahead regardless. I believe EOG resources are pretty robust, but the project would have to compete for capital over their whole portfolio.

Taking out EOG resources 25% and sole risking Endeavour would be a possibility.