I see Full-year results are 3 weeks early this year. Last year results was on 24 April 2024. |
Added to the header: |
Full year results on April Fool's Day!
Fortunately I'm not superstitious :) |
16% Dividend Yield |
I agree Gary. I am sure the odd penny missed will be insignificant in a year from now. I bought in around 143 a few days ago and doubled up today at 140 (as like others I believe this could be the extent of the retrace). At the risk of sounding blaze the huge dividend alone will dwarf any potential losses from mistimed trades. |
LG,
I sold on the 02/01 thinking the technicals were overbought and watched them power on day after day like they had never done before. I have been patient and waited to try and get back in at below my 141.50p sale price but capitulated this morning and re-entered at 143.88p. Since then all they have done has gone down further and I could have got back in, in profit, below my 141.50p exit price. I feel your pain.😂 In the long run hopefully a few pennies here and there won't make much difference.
GLA |
Natural Gas UK GBP (GBp/thm) 131.41 up 4.48 (+3.53%) |
Looks like my last addition at 158 was spectacularly timed - not. Rather hoping that 140 will prove to be the floor. |
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/707101Restart issuing oil and gas licenses in the North SeaI would like the Government to reverse the policy of not issuing new contracts to search for and extract oil and gas in the North Sea and British waters. |
Take it the rigs and infrastructure should handle the winds sweeping towards Aberdeen later, haven't seen anything to say North Sea expects any issues? |
Agree with Mick that the 40K production forecast was disappointing, but heartened by their intent for upgrades, rather than downgrades like last year.
The share ran out of steam (a technical term), a few days back and the tea leaves (aka charts) suggest a fall into the 130's, with the 50sma presently at 137, that is somewhere where I will be looking to re-enter. |
Price of Nat gas is double what it was 12 months.... Helps support very generous returns. Seems a no brainer from here. If it takes years to re rate, then at least we get a great yield while we wait.... As they said in their investor session this week, the sentiment and tax regime is as bad as it can get, so good entry point. Clearly commodity price risk is always there... |
Oh no! That's the kiss of death. |
I don't rate Paul Scott myself (though I know many people do). I thought he was wrong for championing small caps on Stockopedia as they had generally underperformed the main markets for larger caps (and still do). |
Watched that and Paul Hill seemed bullish although Paul Scott never has time for O&G as much as I have time for retail.
What SQZ have been through is a simple phase of High profit, low capex and wrecked the balance sheet with subsequent high tax bills. They've come out of that now and 2024 will be a disaster on the profit side, low production due to outages and onerous hedging on oil that is now finished. As they mentioned in the previous presentation highlighted, it's the oil that gets the tax breaks whilst the gas gets clobbered. They're looking for $75 oil and 82.5p a therm for gas so looks achievable. Think they said they are using oil collars and $96 for 2025 and $80 for 2026 so better than low $60's they were on last year.
I'm looking for upgrades during 2025 for production and a UK government being a bit more relaxed on new fields which should come in the next few months. |
Serica gets a mention here...as well as other small cap investing...
I agree that some backtracking will take place....
Serica 4 mins 50 secs in... |
In the above presentation, at 56 minutes, suggestion from Chris maybe that they'll take Harbour's ?? North Sea assets as he wants to be biggest UK producer? (Martin sitting uncomfortably through it )
Martin suggests Dividend first and will only do share buy backs when share price undervalued, well they started the last lot in 2024 at over £2. |
"I know it's about to get extremely windy and warmer, but even so"
..the irony is that extremely windy will be too windy for most of the windmills to operate! |
I agree with you completely Mick re market drift and dividend return. Assuming there are no hiccups with Q1 production then I would expect to see the share price rise well above your conservative estimate. Any increase above 40k bopd guidance would be a bonus.
I have added today rather than go in fully as the FTSE250 index could consolidate from its recent bounce back. Even so the potential for increased Q1 output and (as you point out) existing shareholder returns should limit further downside risk. I hope to add more in the coming days. |
The presentation 21st January is well worth a watch when you have a spare hour, answers the poor forecast (in my view) of 40k bopd for 2025 and suggests they can start upgrading this rather than the opposite we got last year. The FCF on the oil and gas price is very interesting and if looking for a solid share that can deliver a minimum 20% return compounded over the next 2 years then I'll stick my neck out and expect 47p divi and a share price at £1.65 to achieve that.
Worth mentioning the part they said that there was a $12m underlift in December but they would have cleared the $71m net debt and would have been small net cash without the Q4 downtime.
Edit - Just wish the markets would have a decent wobble of 300-400 points as that seems the main bear point for me as would like to see a sea of red before going in too deep. |
Just started adding here. Can't ignore dividend plus (fingers crossed) the Triton compressor issue is now fixed and we see decent output in Q1.
From their full year trading & operations update (21/1/25):
'Following the resumption of production into the Triton FPSO on 27 December 2024, production has been ramping up. It has been boosted by commencement of production from the GE05 well on the Gannet field (SQZ: 100%) on 11 January. The well flowed 9,000 bopd with a 0% water cut on test, and has been brought onto stable production at a rate of over 6,000 bopd.' |
Oh dear! I know it's about to get extremely windy and warmer, but even so
Solar: 3.2% Wind: 1.1% "Unreliable" Gas: 59.5%
that's live info for now. You can flip the tabs to "past week" and "past year" |
ndisableder supposed to read non-starter |
Any meaningful buyback is a ndisableder given the large shareholding Mercuria has.
If they don't wish to participate in the buyback it just moves them closer to the 30% level for a compulsory takeover.
Again, if that's what they wanted I'm sure there would be buybacks.
Personally, its suits me as I detest buybacks. |
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