Seraphim Space Investment Share Discussion Threads

[the millipede] 20/1/2022 10:03

The problem with Spire is share price is dropping like a brick and seems unrelated to wider market falls.

I bought at the start of the month thinking the falls were likely related to crystallising losses at end of US tax year (which is calendar year) but clearly that was totally wrong!

[the millipede] 20/1/2022 10:01

Also, found this, written yesterday, on a U.S. chat board (Yahoo Finance) about Spire Global. Author is Ethan.

Writing this for myself as much as anyone else, so I can revisit my investment thesis next year and hold myself accountable. Spire's risk/reward is now reasonable. At fair market value by either looking at the sum of its parts or take private valuation. $161 million for ExactEarth, ~$100 million in remaining cash on hand & 120+ Lemur satellites in orbit. (estimated cost to replace $100 million?)

$45.2 million in annual recurring revenue + $18 million (ExactEarth) = $63 million+ annual revenue. Orbcomm bought in 2021 for $1.1 billion at 5x revenue. Hawkeye 360 just raised $145 million series D at a similar valuation. Just not going to do $145 million in 2022 as advertised, but $70 million seems realistic.

To rise going forward, the rotation of SPAQ holders and PIPE sellers will have to be completed over the next year to holders that are focused on future earnings, not liquidating or YOLO strategy. This year could bring new customers for their data from the Space Force weather commercial opportunity and price increases for their maritime data given the acquisition.

Also, although interest rates are rising in general, their cost of borrowing could really go way down for SPIR compared to the cost of capital it was paying of 11%! on some loans from when it was a private company.

Could drop to $280 million market cap, but just as easily rally to $420 in the near-term.

Entered position to build a portfolio around maritime data.

[the millipede] 20/1/2022 08:59

Who knows. I suspect the next NAV will be a reduction compared to the last one (September 2022).

The holdings are, generally, quite speculative , so in the short term, prices might be volatile, but some have the potential to generate substantial revenues over the next 12-24 months. ArQit, for instance, has developed a (possibly the only) cyber security system that can repel attacks from quantum computers and already counts BT as a client. They say they have $1bn in potential pipeline contracts.

[davidro77] 19/1/2022 19:16

Heading for sub float price at this rate!This is one I actually got right, was in at 100 and exited at 125 shortly before the drop started. As said below, with listed holdings declining seemed a weird disconnect that this had held up like it did and now appears to be playing catch up. Liked the idea, but now the market has turned against the sector probably not going to recover any time soon

[the millipede] 19/1/2022 15:10

Worth a look. There is also a webcast on Spire’s website.

[jonwig] 17/1/2022 20:36

The reason for making a reduction in the share premium account (10/01) is to create a distributable reserve. Since SSIT has negligible income, this would mean essentially a return of capital.

This possibility was floated in the prospectus, but does it send a signal that they can find no better use for their funds than returning them to shareholders?

[the millipede] 11/1/2022 11:40

Should perhaps add I like the holdings. I now own Spire and Arqit, but I bought them at current price direct, not a 20% premium based on the price of end September (which was higher than it is now).

[the millipede] 11/1/2022 10:53

Yep. Spire Global has been dropping for a few months. Arqit seems better but is now falling since rising off the back of its latest announcement.

Fairly sure both down on their levels around the end of September, when SSIT last published its NAV.

I like the idea here but can’t see how a premium is justified, when listed holdings can easily be traded directly and private equity usually trades at a discount. Not to mention half the NAV still held as cash.

[jonwig] 10/1/2022 17:56

Over the pond, NASDAQ is in correction territory. Any tech stocks not profitable are being hit hard. (As is biotech and healthcare, surprisingly!)

I won't post negatively about SSIT (or I'll get into trouble...) but it's worth going into details of the main individual holdings.

[the millipede] 10/1/2022 17:52

Wonder what the next NAV will look like?

The listed holdings seem to be falling off a cliff.

[quepassa] 06/12/2021 13:58

Today's RNS .


ICEYE.


hXXps://www.iceye.com/our-story

"Every square metre every hour"

[jonwig] 03/12/2021 14:10

Well, good fortune. I won't mind being proven over-cautious.

[quepassa] 03/12/2021 13:33

An estimated 1,400 satellites have been launched this year 2021 alone.

The industry is growing exponentially and space junk is unlikely to stop it.

[quepassa] 03/12/2021 13:25

Ah yes, that career politician and former PM of Denmark whose other stellar (excuse the pun)written works include "From Social State to Minimal State".

As far as the Kessler Syndrome is concerned, that's what has fueled the sensationalist hollywood movies like Gravity. But NASA, ESA, Musk, Bezos, and other major non-western Space Agencies don't seem deterred, judging by the accelerating pace of their launch programmes.

Space is a big big place. Incomprehensible.

And even if there some junk in near orbit , there are plenty of Space Junk and Clean Space programmes like the ESA initiatives.

If a few satellites get taken out by space junk, it is insignificant in the scheme of things. Satellites are now literally being launched by the bucket-load and the price of them is small nowadays compared to before and they are very replaceable.

a lot of the Kessler syndrome stuff has to do with propaganda and is put out by certain space agencies against other major non-western space agencies. they want you to focus on space junk while the real action of launches goes less noticed.

the rush to space has never been like this before. a little space junk isn't going to stop it.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[jonwig] 03/12/2021 12:45

The author, Anders Fogh Rasmussen is a former NATO Secretary General. Neither a hack nor a Hollywood mogul.

The prospectus does not mention Kessler, nor the potential collision risk (except as a positive for LeoLabs), nor the potential problem of insuring satellites.

I suppose I'm just saying that maybe my risk appetite is getting more limited, and I'm happy to take a profit of 20%-plus.

[quepassa] 03/12/2021 12:19

someone has been watching too many hollywood space disaster movies.

just another small challenge along the inexorable journey of technology and mankind into space.

[jonwig] 03/12/2021 08:48

FT article:

Russia’s anti-satellite test is a wake-up call to mankind
Without better regulation of space, we risk turning Earth’s celestial neighbourhood into a junk yard


The Kessler Syndrome: debris collisions can spread exponentially (cf Covid) rendering LEOs unusable and uninsurable. Huge amount of data needs satellites; disruption would set human progress back 50 years. (Kessler not mentioned in SSIT prospectus, but dates back to 1976!)

For me, just a bit too concerning - have sold out.

[jonwig] 25/11/2021 07:10

$12.5m investment in Astroscale:



"Our orbital highways are already polluted with more than 23,000 pieces of debris larger than 10 cm in diameter and hundreds of millions that are smaller. With up to tens of thousands of satellites launching in the coming years, these pieces of debris endanger a flourishing ecosystem in space.

That’s why we exist – to develop the technology and ensure policies facilitate on-orbit servicing and active debris removal to secure safe and sustainable orbits for generations to come."

[jonwig] 20/11/2021 07:30

The Guardian has an interesting article about space debris, which includes this picture:

[ec2] 19/11/2021 18:11

My decision following the investor call was to sell out. Can't complain about the 25% return since floatation. I certainly agree with the manager's enthusiasm, but on the current premium, I feel the shares may now drift/slide until there is a decent rising NAV for the share price to latch onto and correspondingly track.

[jonwig] 19/11/2021 12:02

Well, they certainly tell a strong story, and fully expect to deliver 20%-plus a year. Strong suggestions of a further fundraising next year.

[ec2] 19/11/2021 10:14

Thanks for the additional clarity. Lots going on across my assets this morning so only time for a very quick speed read of the RNS first thing. Waiting with interest for the investor call at 11.00 before I make a hold/sell decision.

[jonwig] 19/11/2021 08:31

EC2 - as the pdf shows, the invested assets have risen by 50% over the time period!

The apparently slow rate of investment is because they are evaluating potential assets in a "beauty parade". The candidates will be too early stage for quick decisions.

[ec2] 19/11/2021 08:26

I'm disappointed by the NAV and the large amount of remaining uninvested cash. Positive is that the assets that were invested have risen by 6% over the quarter equating to 24% p.a. if the same level of performance can be maintained. Think how that would look if the fund was fully invested.