Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[ironstorm] 22/1/2021 08:05

Very good news indeed. A good start to the year and the fulfilment of that illusion potential.

What I am most pleased about is the timeliness of this RNS. (Yes I know BoJo called it).

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/1/2021 07:59

The future is incredible with SRB. This will be a US$1-2B operation in a few years.

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/1/2021 07:57

Crazy crazy crazy valuation.

[tiger60] 22/1/2021 07:32

Maybe open pit is a possibility as well

[ppvn] 22/1/2021 07:27

If we aren't near the top of the leaderboard today there is something seriously wrong in the world; £53m market cap at the moment.

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/1/2021 07:11

https://www.lawinsider.com/dictionary/bonanza-grade

[ppvn] 22/1/2021 07:11

Just a bit!

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/1/2021 07:10

513 g/t WTF!!! Average 95 g/t - bonanza grades.

[tiger60] 22/1/2021 07:09

RNS out - expo grades look great

[tightfist] 21/1/2021 23:30

Hi MWF; in the torrid COVID circumstances 2020 was OK in my book. Projecting to make 83% of the final Coringa payment to Equinox from organic cash generation is a far better result than we contemplated and supported 11 months ago through the dilutive CLN's..The delay will heal with time. The dilution from CLN's would not...... Cheers, tightfist

[sherry35] 21/1/2021 21:42

BJH - Donèt discount consumer demand as experienced which hit POG in 3Q2020. Look at this way, every demand source, institutional, gov or consumer, should welcomed to the point there is run on Au. Au shortage good, Au glut bad.

[millwallfan] 21/1/2021 18:51

Tightfist and iron storm. Thanks for your comments. Seems we are all pretty much on the same page with regard to P/E , good reasons as to why it is currently quite low but clear factors within the line of sight to move us towards 7/8 and then closer towards true value. I’m sure most here are slightly disappointed with the past year but when taken in context of the worldwide situation to have substantially just ‘tread water’ should be seen pretty much as a success when so many companies have gone to the wall.
So let’s all hope it’s onwards and upwards from here on, starting with the short term news.

[trader536] 21/1/2021 18:41

Hiya Boris my good friend, did you see the GRL chart? Remember me giving you the tip there at 2p?

The only people getting rich at SRB are the greedy directors. Woof woof!!

[ironstorm] 21/1/2021 16:45

If you are going to value this on PE - you need to take into account their historial financial performance and then you can adjust this based on expected future financial performance - drilling is only relevant how it affects this).

Now financial performance here over the years has been pretty poor so it does not deserve a premium rating. Maybe based on cashflow you might say last year was a better performance. I would say a boring Mining company would trade on a PE of 8 except at a go-go market time. So at best - at the moment I would say a PE ratio of 6-8 is about right.

Now when we hit volumes of 40k+ or can see a clear route to this then you could start to adjust upwards.

Coringa and near term volume increases then looks the way to go - with a very clear route to achieving that.

[ppvn] 21/1/2021 12:55

Easy bojo, I might still be after some more haha

[tightfist] 21/1/2021 11:07

Hi MWF,.An appropriate PER projection is one hell of a question. If you were to press me for a PER projection for SRB, all considered IMO it warrants a fairly rapid build to PER=7 potentially expanding to 10 over the next three years.......if we can build some share price momentum (and Brasil becomes re-respected?)..In case you are not aware, this ADVFN thread takes a view across the Small/Mid-Cap space and you can also appreciate the range of PER's in Table 2:.hxxps://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=21909943.[I suppose when valuing a goldie you can consider lots of influences such as PoG expectations and driving sentiment, seasonality, shareholding structure, liquidity, exchange, management track record-vision-credibility-execution history, jurisdiction & politics, effectiveness of PR, local infrastructure and single mine reliance, resources/reserves and capital assets, farm-in possibilities, funding, use of technology, LoM, grade, AISC, pit/underground (inc declines vs shafts), power costs and availability, growth prospects, dividend, market cap (attractiveness to funds, ETF's), bid potential, etc. etc.]..Any more for any more?.I see the Stockopedia TP rose to 220p last night, as PPVN predicted. However, the other forecasts were unchanged. Looking back to 2020, PH tweaked their FY+1 numbers three times but from the end of Jan to Mid-March - then look what happened...... .Cheers, NIAI, DYOR! tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/1/2021 10:38

Boring - all eyes on the discovery announcement next week!!!!

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/1/2021 07:02

Thanks Sherry. Positive news is positive however I don't believe seasonal demand for jewelry in India & China has a big impact in the price. Gold rising to USD2,100 soon. Will coincide nicely with SRBs output rise to 80,000 and AISC drop to USD950. FCF US$92M / year. PE ration of 0.7 at current price ha ha ha ha. Excluding any exploration success or open pit mining farm-in. It's not inconceivable for SRB to be £10 within 24 months.

[sherry35] 21/1/2021 03:26

BJH - Thsi post is for you. This is good news on the Au consumer side. India is consumer gold consumption, being seasonal, is coming back on line. Hopefully this applies to China as well.

[millwallfan] 20/1/2021 19:39

Tightfist. When I have previously looked at producing miners the average p/e was around 10 so 4.5 seems very conservative. I guess SRB will be discounted to some extent if there is any adverse perception of political or other risks of operating in South America plus perhaps covid concerns?. Have you a view on what a reasonable p/e should be as we move forward in terms of production levels and increased JORC?

[tightfist] 20/1/2021 16:50

Thanks PPVN, I will certainly keep my eyes peeled!.I recall the PH $ revenue forecast has not in the past been particularly stretching, it will be interesting to see the latest numbers when they are uploaded to Stockopedia shortly. I anticipate the raised TP has started to take into account the well-known growth potential of SRB rather than just the current FY forecast. Based on the CURRENT eps forecast of 27c we are only currently awarded a forward PE of 4.5..Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 20/1/2021 12:49

Hi tightfist!

Ah, well in that case it could be stockopedia is lagging somewhat. I'm told the most recent TP is 220p (definitely in the queens). Believe it was updated on 18th so keep your eyes peeled!

Not seen any updated revenue projections at the moment, will ask if there is anything fresh on that front too.

[tightfist] 20/1/2021 12:35

Hi PPVN; Interesting to look back through Stocko. data. Any latest PH estimates are not yet showing, the latest TP is still 184p. It was marked-down in mid-October when the TP was cut from 201p and more significantly the 2021 eps forecast was reduced from 44c to 27c (19.6p). The current revenue forecast still shows at $72.8m (eg averaging 40kOz at $1,820). If they are sustaining these forecast parameters it doesn't strike me as conservative, unless it is 36kOz at $2,020!.It's interesting if PH have now modified their TP - is it 220p (GBP) or 220c (USD) ie 159p reflecting the 2021 production guidance that has been reduced by SRB? And with it the PH revenue forecast?.Coringa NAV soon to go on the balance sheet seems old news to sway the TP?.Cheers, tightfistPS: There is IMO a cheaper gold miner, MML on the ASX - but IMHO the BoD are entrenched, sleepy, gravy train passengers .