Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[sherry35] 27/11/2020 18:05

tiger60 - I think most of us on the this board will not dispute the statement ¨"continued failure to meet forward statements". The question is "What is the BOD's plan to remedy this situation?". I for one would vote out MH and CL. Given their salaries, AND NO SKIN IN THE GAME in the form of shares, this is a living dead company with no prospect of being bought out. As tightfist noted in one of his post, the farm-in candidates has been been removed from the presentation.

WE NEED CHANGE.
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What's the plan?

[tiger60] 27/11/2020 10:23

The plan is out there but it is one with little short term reward. The question should not be what is the plan but what can they do to drive more immediate short term value to shareholders. However, management would argue they will deliver shareholder value by developing at a pace cashflow allows with Coringa timelines out of their hands whilst they await the 2 licenses required. Even when they come they will need to raise funds/take on debt so a delay may help to reduce the quantity of the funding needed if cashflow continues to stay positive.

The plan maybe too long term for some but it is there. Whether you agree with it is another question. Some may suggest that there is more value firming up resources and prioritising the exploration work but it is all a juggling act. The gold market bull run is not infinite. It is a shame there is no way to align higher production to 2021 H1 timelines but there is no way to achieve this but it will focus third parties interest on the so called minnows if their resource base looks attractive


My main gripes are the drip feeding of the scale of the setbacks caused by Covid and looking back over the history of this firm the continued failure to meet forward statements. Both MH and CL have been at the helm for many years and maybe too comfortable on their 400K and 300K salary plus share options. There needs to be a shake up in terms of performance and accountability. At this precise moment we are going backwards. Some may argue they got through this year on sheer luck - the combination of favourable FX rates and the price of gold and that would not be too far from the truth.


Gold price will drive performance short term. I expect a bounce to align to the realisation that a substantial stimulus is still required in the US. Yellen appointment will help but the Senate may have other ideas. To me it is not if it will happen but the size of the package. Lets hope for that to come soon.

[kennyp52] 27/11/2020 09:53

It needs to be clarified sharpish as they are potentially misleading the market ATM in my view . We have no idea what to expect now ... and yes ... what is the plan ?

[tiger60] 27/11/2020 09:14

I am sure the 34-37K was an oversight. We should expect 33,000 per last official guidance. what I would like to understand is Peel Hunt's relatively low prediction for 2021. I was looking around for the detail but can't find the substance upon which this is based.

[sherry35] 27/11/2020 04:43

kenney - I know the 2nd link is June. Zerohedge owner/author has a nasty tendency of predicting outcomes. His only failed prediction is the future demise of Tesla. Tesla seems to defy the law of gravity with it unique accounting practices and tax credits.
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What's the plan?

[kennyp52] 26/11/2020 21:19

Sherry .. the 2nd link is June,2020 !!

[kennyp52] 26/11/2020 21:16

If they are guiding 34k-37k for 2020 then that would be over 9k Oz in Q4 . Has it been clarified if this is an error ? If not then we were looking for the ore sorter to improve production and we know the grades are there . A 10k Oz quarter ?? This is only what we were looking for anyway prior to Covid . Clarification needed .

[borisjohnsonshair] 26/11/2020 17:31

You got it Bushwacker. Love yer man!

[millwallfan] 26/11/2020 16:35

Sherry. Seems a fairly balanced and realistic forward looking view. Shame SRB will not have sufficient time to ramp up output to benefit from the peak price. However, assuming the projected 2022 price does materialise at around $1800 if serabi can get aisc down and well below $1000 then with production anywhere around or above 80,000 oz whilst I cannot in any way reconcile with the $28 posted above I have long held the view that the share price ( with other things being equal) should get to the more realistic £3-5 range. A significantly enhanced jorc would of course open up greater opportunity but then again a crash in POG or heaven forbid a mining accident would be detrimental.
All IMHO

[sherry35] 26/11/2020 16:19

Here is article predicting 2021 Au price. At least they didn't mention $10K or $15K US Au oz. like some twits are writing.

[tightfist] 26/11/2020 12:06

Not yet, I will post a Mello link as available.O/T: Please see my perspective on consolidation benefits on the ALTN thread

[king suarez] 26/11/2020 11:06

Is there a video of the presentation available (yet)? Thanks

[king suarez] 26/11/2020 10:11

So you're saying there's a chance we might squeak above 80p by the end of 2021?

[borisjohnsonshair] 26/11/2020 08:36

Gold bounced on big 1,800 support. Will now rise to 2,500 by end of 2021. SRB with US$1,500 / ounce FCF will have 100,000 output. US$150M. Could easily double with the highly probably success of exploration say US$250M. X 8 for MCAP = US$2B. Share price circa £28 per share.

[redtrend] 25/11/2020 18:12

In terms of why down in Canada, not sure but seen Peel Hunt revised down guidance:

hxxps://www.mining-journal.com/gold-and-silver-news/news/1400010/serabi-battles-covid-19-headaches

"Analysts at Peel Hunt revised down its forecast gold production for the Brazil-focused miner by 9% for 2020 - to 32,700oz - and by 18% for 2021 to 36,900oz."


Did no one ask about the guidance in the Mello Presentation of 34-37k Oz gold for 2020 which doesn't seem to match earlier statements Q4 2020 would be circa 8k Oz, which on top of 9 months production of 24,748Oz up to end Sept 2020, would bring us to only 32.7k Oz.

Getting to that lower guidance alone of 34k Oz would mean Q4 2020 quarter of 9kOz+, which can't be right?

[tiger60] 25/11/2020 17:55

Seriously, are you trying to attribute the rise to the event? Tiny volume 31K bought and sold

[borisjohnsonshair] 25/11/2020 17:18

Why is it down in Canada

[davidosh] 25/11/2020 17:03

Nice to see the shares up 5% today so must have been a positive response to last nights presentation. Good luck to all and hope you enjoyed the event.

[tightfist] 25/11/2020 16:24

Hi Cotton, only one question last night was from me - CL omitted the SC processing part of my question which MH then answered. I found the response was quite useful; a processing at SC (or not) (which could involve concentration, Ore Sorting and/or cyanidation) decision was indicated around end 2021, once they have a lot more drilling results at Pal. and around SC. Useful to temper back short-term expectations?.Cheers, tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 25/11/2020 14:37

It's clear that by the time Coringa is in production, they'll be 2-4 more similar 40k / year mines lined up. 200,000 ounces / year realistic by 2024. That's around the time they can prove up the US$1B open pit mine. US$2B company - £20 a share.

[cotton4] 25/11/2020 08:23

Tightfist - Was it you who asked questions during the q&a session?

[borisjohnsonshair] 25/11/2020 08:15

Big spender from the presentation last night!!!

[sherry35] 24/11/2020 16:11

For your reading pleasure





Has digital gold replaced physical gold? If it has, does it trade exactly like the paper on the COMEX. And, is the digital gold backed by physical gold <<bars>>.