Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 01/9/2020 08:11

Gold giving us a nice tail wind. License ..... where is it. It's going to send Ulysses into orbit - 175p one week after receipt I'd say.

[tightfist] 31/8/2020 16:14

Hi bomber; yes, I look forward to them too. Sprinkled with salient facts, presented in a logical fashion and conclusions - classic BB examples of less-is-more! tightfist

[ppvn] 31/8/2020 10:41

I do enjoy your posts bomber. Obviously I wholeheartedly agree too.

[bomber13] 31/8/2020 09:25

As you can see from the link below , the record gold price in Brazilian Reals is more than helping Serabi overcome COVID 19 ramifications .

The Q1 2020 gold price averaged R6909 per oz , Q2 averaged R9182 , and with 2 months of Q3 in the bag the average to date is R10120 for the third quarter . Moreover , today's spot price is over R10500 per oz .

When Serabi promised similar results in Q3 compared with Q2 around mid-August , the gold price was some 5% lower than it is today , so this should reassure the market that EBITDA in Q3 should be at least the same as the US$6.2m earned in Q2 , which would equate to just under US$16m of EBITDA for the first 9 months of 2020 .

With the ore sorter back on song in Q4 , and the workforce back to capacity , one would expect a more normal quarter's production of over 10000 oz , which at current spot gold prices should mean EBITDA of US$8.5m to Serabi in Q4 , and a total for the year of US$24.5m . Not a bad result given a mill breakdown in February , and having to work with 65% of your workforce for 6 months of the year .

Prior to the coronavirus , Serabi was forecasting 45/- to 46/- oz of gold production in 2020 . Assuming that these numbers are now very much achievable in 2021 , and taking a gold price of R10000 per oz , and AISC of US$1100 , Serabi's EBITDA in 2021 should be around US$36m . This compares with its current Enterprise Value of US$65m ( @95p ) , which equates to an EV/EBITDA of just 1.8X .

Bearing in mind that the above rating is based purely on the Palito complex and ignores both the new Coringa mine ( > 38/- oz pa @ AISC of US$852 ) , which should come on stream in 2022 subject to imminent permit approval , and any exploration success on Serabi's highly prospective acreage , one cannot help but think that this company must be one of the cheapest organic growth plays in the market .

[kennyp52] 31/8/2020 08:52

Let’s hope the longevity of Covid has meant many now have immunity . Still reporting cases in U.K. but very few going into hospital ... nothing on most critical care units ... so what’s that all about ? 🤔

[borisjohnsonshair] 31/8/2020 08:36

Covid infections in Brazil lowest since May and deaths lowest since April. Trend down and rate of improvement accelerating. We have a perfect storm of good news coming and all the while we are pumping cash. I don't believe in TA for SRB but it's kinda nice that that's also pointing up big time. I'll take it when it's positive ha ha.

[sherry35] 29/8/2020 15:51

tightfist, In follow-up to your comment "practicalities of co-working between Serabi and a potential Major", I believe it comes down to which company has the economical goods whether it's SRB, AA or both. Lets hope it's SRB which will give them bargaining power in the farm-in. I'm currently in this situation with MMA and a major known as Rio Tinto. You may have heard of the major ;)
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I'm wondering if AA got access to some satellite geophysics. This is not uncommon. Do you think AA has to commit to exploration work on the permits to keep in good standings?
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It appears from the Cabral Gold presentation, referenced in one of your prior posts, that AA permit ownership is west, south and south-east of the Palitao complex. See slide 7.



The map does not clearly define SRB's mineral permits - just the mine locations. So, "Other Permits" would include SRB's mineral permits. So, I'm left with the impression that SRB's permits rub up against AA's permits give or take a Lara oddity.

The thing to remember is slide 7 is not a living document so the accuracy of the mineral permit ownership is changing. AA could have acquired some of the "Other permits" or even better, SRB is acquiring the permits. I think SRB is working on permits north and north-west of the Palito complex. No proof.
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The links on the Lara Web page, at the bottom, are dead. I'm certain SRB has probably reviewed all the documentation and drill cores. A acquisition like this involves a few months of due diligence before inking a contract.
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I'm enjoying the researching and discussion. Enjoy your weekend. Go grab a G&T and relax.

[tightfist] 28/8/2020 22:31

Hi Sherry, thanks for reply post #358. Scanning through the AA report I couldn't see the source of the Au credits either. But it was sufficient to remind me why I choose to invest in relatively straightforward and focussed minnow businesses!.I am intrigued by the AA tenement to the immediate NW of Serabi's tenements - I wonder what is known and how significant it is in the grand scheme of AA things? It also makes one wonder about the practicalities of co-working between Serabi and a potential Major..Here is more info on yesterday's tenement acquisition, formerly known as Lara's Fofoca South:hTTps://www.laraexploration.com/our-projects/brazil/fofoca-south-gold-project/.Have a good weekend, tightfist

[kennyp52] 28/8/2020 20:21

In your dreams trader536 ... in your dreams

[trader536] 28/8/2020 19:17

Kenny my good friend, narrow vein mining typically produces huge volatility in grade, production, and AISC figures, and is therefore notoriously high risk. The whole SRB operation is reliant upon a single piece of mechanical equipment which could easily breakdown and cause a catastrophic collapse in the share price.

You could wake up one morning to find the SRB ore sorter broke down or the mine closed due to the spread of covid.

In my horse race I can move the finish line to where my horse is winning. Which other horse race can you end when your horse is in the lead?

[kennyp52] 28/8/2020 18:05

Difference with GRL is its like a bet on a horse . You can win handsomely or lose the lot . Not even got a license let alone a production plan and how far away is sales ? You could wake up one morning trader536 to find GRL in receivership .

[borisjohnsonshair] 28/8/2020 17:21

Maybe some more attention now and license next week!!! 150p by Friday

[cyberbub] 28/8/2020 16:41

Bit of a disappointing finish, but it is a Friday afternoon... Let's hope we can break the 100p for good next week!

[borisjohnsonshair] 28/8/2020 16:32

I'll take that. Great day. Happy long week end all, except one

[borisjohnsonshair] 28/8/2020 16:32

Ha - I was joking you clown. You've got no shame. Everyone knows you've failed here - it's had an awesome day and I did a top up for lower than the closing price. Win win win me, you lose.

[tiger60] 28/8/2020 16:05

TBH if someone had said this will close over year highs at the start of the day I would of snapped their arms off (not just their hands!).

Sherry why rush when you are on 400K a year and allocate yourself a share option with no exercise price!

[sherry35] 28/8/2020 15:27

I'm smelling pump and dump. Look at the high volume and tight trading range for the previous day. Is it possible that somebody unloaded some shares at a 10p profit? Add the new posters's "just hold on" comments on this blog, yep, pump and dump.

I don't see substantial move out of this stock until year end. I'm personally disappointed in the progress over the years. I'm in another Au miner that is still drilling above and below ground. Still on track for 100K Au oz. this year. It's time for new CEO that can make quicker decisions and execute an aggressive plan. From where I sit, I don't see 100K Au oz. production until 2022 with the current executive team.

As for the permit, we have directors and GM with experience in investing and mining operations in South America. One would think they would be able to influence the GOV to print a permit. The C19 excuse is getting old in my books considering the Brazil C19 numbers are improving.