Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 27/8/2019 08:16

72p on the Bid!

[tightfist] 27/8/2019 08:15

Just ticked-up. Be interesting to see how the trading spread evolves during the day....

[tightfist] 27/8/2019 07:56

Hi MWF,Difficult to call; doubtless a lot is already in the price - and we all know how "tight" trading is. There are several potential value-inflection points over the next two years - but what they individually might contribute is anyone's guess, although permitting may be the bigger one? We probably need to attract "new money" to embark on the next leg?.Cheers, tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 27/8/2019 07:32

Down over the pond. Who knows today.

[littlepuppi7] 27/8/2019 07:07

Gold up 5 at 1532. Will we get a super strong start today? I fully expect one.

[littlepuppi7] 26/8/2019 23:57

Lets see what happens tomorrow, this could well be a momentous week for Serabi where true realistic valuation starts to slowly appear.

[millwallfan] 26/8/2019 22:16

Tight-fist. What is you thinking on impact on share price when Coringa pea is available assuming it is ‘good’

[tightfist] 26/8/2019 21:35

Hi 74Tom,I am pretty bullish SRB too. I have taken a look at the latest PH forecast through Stockopedia and the 2019 revenue forecast has just been increased by 5% to $62.9m (average $1,430 x 42kOz?) and by 15% for 2020 to $77.8m (average $1,500 x 52kOz?). This makes sense in that the Ore Sorter should be on-stream throughout the year, but that Tailings throughput will tail-off in H2.... There is some prospective upside from the Ore Sorter and/or the two mine operations? Curiously they are showing no increase in forecast profits?!Coringa will IMO only contribute from Q3 2021 and in this situation I would be thoughtful about year-end revenue rate-of-travel versus year-long average.IMO the weakness of the BRL is yet to be reflected adequately in unit costs.Cheers, tightfist

[loganair] 26/8/2019 21:18

2 and 10 Year US Bonds Inverted most since 2007.

[loganair] 26/8/2019 20:37

To do that the price of gold would have to rise to around $20,000 per oz.

[edjge2] 26/8/2019 20:25

how about if the states reintroduce gold standard?

[kennyp52] 26/8/2019 19:02

If the advice is sell stocks ... then a move into gold either in bullion or via mining stocks is surely likely ... so I am presuming you guys are not advocating selling all stocks ?!?

[loganair] 26/8/2019 18:53

Indosuez - It is time to protect your wealth from the gains made over the past few years.

[sherry35] 26/8/2019 18:51

Let's look at a different way. Let's assume there is a 500,000 oz. gold resource in the ground. At $1500 Au oz. USD and 59M shares, the share price is $12.71 USD. You'll note it doesn't include the value of two turn key producing mines, and another in the construction phase.

The value of this company will be determined primarily by the amount of Au on the mining and exploration permits. The fact that three mines will be in production by 2020E also adds to the value (secondary).

They need to do some directional drilling on the Cinderella find. This could be the source of all the gold in the region.

[1kiwi] 26/8/2019 18:44

Breaking: UBS the world’s top wealth manager urges clients to sell stocks

[1kiwi] 26/8/2019 18:43

Breaking: Iran sends war ship into the gulf, destroyer deployed to safe guard Iranaian flagged vessels

[ppvn] 26/8/2019 18:37

I did a historical search for comparison purposes and the larger miners in 2011 were trading on 14x, smaller ones closer to 10x.

That being said, Serabi at this point have little debt and so that all factors into it.

I'm wildly optimistic here too I must say.

[millwallfan] 26/8/2019 18:24

Thanks 74tom for the clarification of p/e base. However what do you consider as a reasonable p/e for a profitable miner - I used 6 but I believe some consider it may be closer to 10 ??

[74tom] 26/8/2019 18:20

@Millwallfan, P/E ratio is calculated on operating profit before tax, not gross profit so you need to deduct admin costs & depreciation from the £32m. In 2018, admin costs were $5.8m and depreciation $9m, which converted at 0.8 gives £11.8m. So an operating profit of £20.2m. £20.2/59 = 34.2p * 6 = £2.05 a share.

However, given Peel Hunt upped their target to £1.60 on Friday based on our current production, I think their target could be pushing £3 if we reach 80k Oz by next year.

[millwallfan] 26/8/2019 18:12

1Kiwi. I have - but don’t want to be accused of blatant ramping but would welcome comments on the figures I posted above - do others agree these are potentially realistic next year assuming of course pog stays bullish and they really do ramp up production.

[1kiwi] 26/8/2019 18:07

millwallfan, go right ahead and crunch the numbers! ;)

$1750 is not an unrealistic amount, nor is 100,000 ounces.

[millwallfan] 26/8/2019 18:00

I’m not the sharpest tool in the box but if there are under 59 millions shares in issue and we achieve 80,000 ozs in 2020 and we assume a realistic average price of $1500 with total extraction costs even at $1000 and the £ @ 0.8 to the dollar that equates to £32 million gross profit or 54 pence per share. Let’s take a very conservative p/e of 6 and we get to £3 plus. I haven’t even had the audacity to calculate where we would be at 100,000 ozs and average gold at the optimists view of say $ 1750 !!! Someone please take a few minutes to burst my bubble .....

[loganair] 26/8/2019 17:42

The risk-off environment will keep the price of gold elevated next year said ABN Amro.

Trade tensions and global growth concerns will keep markets worried well into 2020, which will make for a very supportive gold environment throughout the year, stated the latest note by the Dutch bank.

“For 2020, we don’t expect a material improvement in the outlook for global trade and in the global economy, said ABN Amro senior FX and precious metals strategist Georgette Boele.

Next year will likely see more global monetary policy easing and negative yielding debt, which are two very important triggers for the price of gold.

ABN Amro remained firm on the $1,400 level for the end of 2019 for gold with prices surging towards $1,600 only at the end of 2020.

[tightfist] 26/8/2019 17:41

I see the rout of the BRL continues, now at 4.15 BRL/USD. I suppose the good news has to pause at some point......