Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[74tom] 06/8/2019 22:51

@Tightfist, thanks for the reply - shame that PH keep their notes private - nothing on research tree either. It will be interesting to see how revenue performs vs those forecasts.

Re. Synergies, I read it in the original Coringa completion RNS;

hxxps://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2017/12/22/1269841/0/en/Serabi-Gold-plc-Completion-of-acquisition-of-the-Coringa-gold-project-Brazil.html

The sixth benefit of the acquisition is;

“Serabi considers that scope exists to reduce capital and operating costs at Coringa by utilising Serabi's existing gold processing facilities at Palito.”

You’re right though, the PEA metrics can’t come soon enough.

[74tom] 06/8/2019 22:38

Gold’s rally has room to run with Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BofAML) projecting that the yellow metal hits $1,500 an ounce next year with the potential to get as high as $2,000, according to the bank’s latest report.

“We have a relatively conservative 2Q20 forecast of $1,500/oz, but in this scenario, we see scope for gold to rise towards $2,000/oz,” BofAML said in a report published on Friday.”

Imagine $2k gold with $1k AISC and 80k production, $80m gross profit - we can dream!

[tightfist] 06/8/2019 22:38

Hi 74tom,I don't have direct access to PH data - I tried and was rebuffed.I am using Stockopedia data. This shows a consistent tp of 140-142p over the last three updates/nine weeks.More importantly 2019 revenue forecast has risen 9% to £55.4m (mainly PoG increase, I expect) whilst 2020 FY has actually been reduced 26% to £67.6m (IMO increased PoG offset by reduced production increase?). I anticipate this reflects a progressive timing slippage expectation with Coringa commissioning?We are all awaiting the SRB PEA target metrics. They certainly need to generate synergies but I hadn't foreseen ore-trucking as a realistic proposition after SoP - for cost/distance and capacity reasons. Confirmed by the ongoing refurbishment of on-site process equipment?Onwards and hopefully upwards! tightfist

[74tom] 06/8/2019 21:33

@Tightfist, do you have a link to the Peel Hunt note? I can only see a target price reduction from £1.40 to £1.30? Even then it’s 120% higher than today’s close.

The Feasibility study for Coringa had an AISC of $783, average gold price of $1250 and FX Rate of $3.2 / Brazilian Real. So it’s safe to say it would cost substantially more than the $22m we agreed in Dec 17 if we were to purchase right now. And if they can generate synergies by processing the ore at Palito then group AISC could be substantially lowered from its current $1021...

[tightfist] 06/8/2019 17:02

74tom,Exciting share/company but take a look at PeelHunt's recently reduced forecast. With hopefully Palito Ore Sorter (H1) & Coringa to come on stream in H2 2020 the RUN-RATE may be doubled but IMO I doubt the FY production will.Does anyone have access to official forecasts? I guess we will get a PH revenue update next Wednesday? tightfist

[loganair] 06/8/2019 16:12

and 5,860 BRL to the oz.

[datait2019] 06/8/2019 16:11

Sub 50p soon

[1kiwi] 06/8/2019 15:46

Oh my giddy GOLD! $1470s again, alot closer to 1500s than 1400s for a couple of days now

;)

Theres Gold in the box!

[littlepuppi7] 06/8/2019 15:43

Logan - they are guiding 40 - 44,000, so your estimate would put them pretty much bang in the middle.

Financials on the 14th, expecting some good forward looking statements considering they are getting about 200 USD more per ounce than last year :-)

Its come at just the right time as well..

I think the seller is still about.. Once they are fully cleared this is 100p

Why on earth sell at 60p though with so much to offer.. They must be desperate for cash.

[littlepuppi7] 06/8/2019 15:42

Gold through 1470

[tightfist] 06/8/2019 15:11

Agreed, my other long term Asian goldie is about 80%. My 85% BRL figure was specifically SRB.

[loganair] 06/8/2019 13:02

SRB have always over estimated their forecast full year gold to be mined.

After the second quarter production update it seems to me SRB will produce between 40,000oz and 42,000oz of gold for the full year.

AISC can be reduced to $1,000 with the average price for the gold mined around $120 to $150 higher then last year.

[74tom] 06/8/2019 12:49

We really do have the perfect set of fundamentals

ASIC decreasing: $1021 for Q1 vs $1093 for 2018. Interesting to see what H1 averages

A 2019 gold spot in BRL that continues to appreciate. Q3 PAT will be exceptional if current levels are maintained.

Production forecast to increase to 24,000 Oz in H2, and more than double in 2020

A growing cash pile, $12.2m at 31/03, comfortably on track to make the final Coringa payment at the end of Q4.

So much upside from a £35m market cap in a relatively stable jurisdiction!

[loganair] 06/8/2019 12:10

As well as JP Morgan, HSBC now forecasting bond yields will be lower for longer.

Goldman's now expecting 3 Fed rate cuts this year, 2 more to come.

[cinoib] 06/8/2019 11:08

Surprised we have not edged up a couple of p this a.m. as gold finished strong overnight and has just gone possertive for the day.

[loganair] 06/8/2019 10:57

tight - For miners on average 70% to 80% of their expenses and costs are in local currency.

[1kiwi] 06/8/2019 10:47

Stocks experience biggest daily losses in 2019, as trade-war takes ugly turn

All signs point for now, at least, that we are experiencing a significant escalation in the US-China trade-war.

hxxps://www.ig.com/uk/news-and-trade-ideas/stocks-experience-biggest-daily-losses-in-2019--as-trade-war-tak-190805

[tightfist] 06/8/2019 10:38

Hi, Zak's webcast was on 14th July when I have PoG at around $1,417? Recently I understood that SRB costs are now ~85% in BRL; I anticipate that costs in Brasil are escalating disproportionately?

[loganair] 06/8/2019 10:13

SRB reports that 80% of their expenses and costs are in local currency and the price of gold closed yesterday at a record level high 5,809 BRLs per oz.

[tightfist] 06/8/2019 10:08

Just copy the link to RHS of www and it worked OK for me. Usual Zak Café simple stuff, SRB is 2/3 way webcast through..He has projected the top edge of a rising parallel channel using 25th June as the last high. That's his logic anyway, result is OK by me!

[1kiwi] 06/8/2019 10:01

QS99, excellent point there mate! I believe it was around $1437

[qs99] 06/8/2019 08:52

What POg was Zac Mirs 90p target based on? Couldn’t follow link

[1kiwi] 06/8/2019 08:49

Morning all,

Escalation of trade war continues