Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 23:40

Slide 4 is my personal fav Well worth a read if you have nothttps://www.serabigold.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Q1-Results-Corporate-presentation.pdf

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 23:29

Loved the comments as well about how there was a lot of interest in what srb are doing at the moment. They are not the types to make that up. All very interesting and positive.

[tightfist] 24/7/2019 22:15

Hi, Great to hear MH's upbeat brr views and see your thoughts. However I went to check the 2020 forecast and since 6th July it seems Peel Hunt have reduced revenue forecast from £90.9m to £67.2m (according to Stockopedia). This equates to 50kOz @$1,368 (which matches 2019). Any comments anyone?.May in part account for the recent share price pull-back? .Regarding Coringa capex, pending the PEA, it seems sensible to deduct the $5m (already paid to Anfield for the used equipment on-site) which suggests $23m remains; to which we must add the final payment of $12m. They indicated yesterday that they wish to resume drilling on chosen anomalies around Sao Chico, so there will be cost for that too. .Cash, organic cash generation and increased debt may close the gap - we will see. Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 24/7/2019 17:35

Just did a couple more (very brief and simplistic) sums further to the interview from yesterday.

If the ore sorter does get them to 60k oz next year and reduces costs to c.$950/oz, with the POG where it is that's nearly $30mm before costs/taxes etc.

I seem to remember that Coringa needed c. $28mm from the Anfield PEA (will be interesting to see required capex in the upcoming PEA) but having obviously spent a fair amount of cash on Coringa already this year it's pretty close to self sustaining in terms of funding. Perhaps they really can pull it off with a moderate amount of debt. That'd then leave them the following year when Coringa starts production in 2021 with a bit of debt but 100k oz with goodness knows what gold price and hopefully lower aisc.

We shall see.

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 10:27

Gold back over 1425...

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 09:06

Just added another 11,000 odd...

[gregpeck7] 24/7/2019 01:04

Only just finished work and taken the time to listen. Excellent piece. We are so cheap it is ridiculous. Once we can break 60p resistance there will be no stopping serabi. Well done mike and the team.

[ppvn] 23/7/2019 22:51

It does certainly sound that way from the interview doesn't it. Think the decent gold price has meant that they've been able to maintain their cash position despite paying for the ore sorter, work at Coringa, all the development of Palito and Sao Chico etc.

You never know until the fat lady sings, but sounding promising.

[ironstorm] 23/7/2019 19:40

Sounds like good news on financing. No dilution looks like the default option now. Fantastic news.

[ironstorm] 23/7/2019 19:39

37% resource increase at Coringa coming (did we know this already?) as part of the PEA.

[observer007] 23/7/2019 16:13

Interview link

[loganair] 23/7/2019 14:58

CEO MH said "Cash from the gold from the tailings treatment goes straight to the bottom line as profit because there is no real cost associated with them."

[gregpeck7] 23/7/2019 14:52

Will listen later. Very impressed with the efforts they are making to improve investor relations. Well done srb team.

[ppvn] 23/7/2019 14:48

New interview with Mike available on the serabi homepage - talks about current cash balance (c.$12mm) as well as funding options for Coringa - sounds very positive.

[loganair] 23/7/2019 14:32

All good for the Price of Gold:


Charles Schwab - ECB, will go for more QE and are running out of things to buy will only drive interest rates of Euro bonds further into negative territory.

I can easily see the interest rate on German Bunds going to -1.0% or lower as investors know that the ECB will come in and pay more for their Bunds then they paid for them.

Interest rates at -1.0% with nominal inflation at 2.5% or as it seems to me more like 5% to 8% because I see many things being sold in smaller quantities for the same price (18% less for the same price of £2 means a 9% increase in price which is not reflected in the official inflation rate.) This gives a real inflation rate of 3.5% or a great deal higher if using my inflation rate.



JP Morgan - ECB may have to follow the BOJ (Bank of Japan) and start buying equities.

[loganair] 23/7/2019 13:58

Am I looking at a different price of gold to other posters as all I'm seeing and have seen over the past month is gold trading plus or minus $10 around the $1,420 per ounce.

[gregpeck7] 23/7/2019 13:55

Watch that gold price move.. 1425 now

[ppvn] 23/7/2019 12:48

Hi tightfist,

I'm probably not the best person to be comparing your PF against; I break all the rules with regard to concentration risk / diversification etc.

My balance for precious miner stocks is around 80% of my PF; that's balanced across an ISA, SIPP as well as managed fund. So I have 3 miners that I hold in the SIPP and ISA and hold a managed PM fund in another pension which I rotated into in mid 2015. Serabi was around 5% but then when they dropped under 30p I upped that to around 10%, and then the subsequent rise in share price has elevated that to around 20% at today's price. I probably should rebalance but whilst there are other companies I could invest in, when comparing them up against serabi (and do bear in mind I have patience and am happy to wait for 2021 and onward) I'm not sure their growth potential is anywhere near as likely or as good.

The remainder (c.20%) is held in other micro caps that I just have a bit of a flutter on. After a good few years of aim shares and being bitten occasionally I seem to have improved my selections somewhat - I'm much more careful now as to what "jam tomorrow" statements I buy! Ha

[tightfist] 23/7/2019 11:50

IIRC the speculation around the Finance Package completion was by January 2020. What is the current Sprott loan timing? - around the same time? ......To secure the best deals they will want the provisional licence issued beforehand?

[tightfist] 23/7/2019 11:46

Hi PPVN,I am in as deep as I think "outrageously prudent". Out of interest are you prepared to share what '%ages you have in Serabi and in Gold Miners overall? THIS MORNING I am 8+% in SRB and 22% in four other miners - quite different to two weeks ago..Not as extreme as another poster who stated 100% of his share portfolio was in SRB..Cheers, tightfist

[loganair] 23/7/2019 11:43

It seems to me that cryptos are now completely dead in the water in both China and India who have 1/3rd of the worlds population and by 2050 will be the number 1 & 2 economies in the world by GDP.

[tightfist] 23/7/2019 11:34

I agree with an awful lot that is said. I am not sure the promise of Austerity was ever a mass-market vote winner and similarly I only think that thinking people are questioning the value of money.But it's only opinions - interest rates and PoG movements are facts!

[loganair] 23/7/2019 10:57

MoneyWeek - Make no mistake, the US government is ramping up spending in a pretty dramatic way. The deficit (the annual overspend) is already set to hit more than 4% this year and next.

It’s another step down the road to central bank money printing giving way to more direct intervention from governments.

As investors, I don’t think you can underestimate the importance of this shift. After the 2008 financial crisis, debt was the enemy. We kept racking it up, but people weren’t happy or comfortable about it.

Now, that’s changing. After years of quantitative easing by central banks, people are questioning the nature of money itself, and the idea that printing to spend might have consequences. Even the illusion of promising “austerityR21; or “fiscal responsibility”; is no longer a vote winner.

The next batch of elections around the world will essentially boil down to competitions to promise financial benefits to competing sets of lobby groups. You could argue that this has always been the case, but now we’re losing even the pretence that it isn’t.

[ppvn] 23/7/2019 10:53

After the recent(ish) rise I guess a period of consolidation is warranted. Like you I'm here for a good while.

Because the POG only rose really in June significantly the q2 financials won't fully reflect the uplift to Serabi. We have the Coringa PEA shortly but there could be some further opportunities to buy here. The finance package for Coringa is due to be finalised this quarter too, is it not?

If we hang around these levels I might get a chance to pry open the purse strings again. Come 2021 I believe and hope Serabi will be unrecognisable from this market cap.