Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[golden prospect] 28/4/2021 09:04

In the interest of balance, the company is debt free, cash rich, cash generating, year on year improvements expected plus cash for $5m drilling. Everything to play for.

[tiger60] 28/4/2021 08:52

It is hard not to lose patience here. The exploration results whilst seemingly great have generated no sustainable momentum to the share price and even if we get a positive update each month there seems to be no guarantee this will be reflected in the share price

Obviously the lack of audited accounts and the discrepancies found are hanging over us. I expect the fees for the lawyers and forensic accountants will cost at least double the reported $80,000 missing.

We need to get clarity on this and have the accounts published as soon as possible. If we get into late May/early June without them then we will see some detrimental pressures on the share price

I believe in the potential for corporate action this year but with a guidance production of 33,000 - 36,000 and Coringa only online mid 2023 at the earliest many potential investors maybe thinking that there is no need to park their money here just yet whilst so many other sectors are rising. It is a question I have asked myself.

I really think the finance director has to go. I also think that the remaining management should reflect their believe in their words by buying shares. Why wouldn't you if you believe that the company is undervalued to its peers by multiples of the current SP?

I stay as I believe we will beat guidance (but an unambitious target was set) and as stated above the potential for a tie up with a major (praying for a resource with open pit potential - that is the game changer). I would also like to see on Crux and BRR a more challenging exchange and for them to ask the hard questions (address share price performance, missing guidance, etc.) although that would upset their symbiotic relationship. Basically they are glorified adverts

The secondary consideration is the direction gold is taking. The Fed wording today will give a better insight into the tapering and take on inflationary pressures. Expect them to still maintain their stance that any inflation is transitory yet there is mounting evidence to challenge this. However, the 'hard' evidence will take time to appear and it looks like only then will it be acknowledged. At that point it will be too late for the Fed and the dollar. But at the moment it is a matter of opinion and gold pricing is following Fed lines.

All in all after re listening to all the Crux and BRR interviews over the last 2 years it is hard not to be more than a bit cynical when you hear more of the same. Step up, be proactive and go back and agree the JV.

[trader536] 26/4/2021 13:45

Boris my good friend check out the GRL chart, WOOOOSH!!!!.....


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[plat hunter] 26/4/2021 12:55

Lol Aimsurfer... I agree but to cut hairs, they're a refiners first and foremost. Anyway, it's doesn't distract away from the fact that you are right. I think that has already been played out now though, the cost and frustrations of whcih falling at the feet of long term suffering shareholders.



Fortunately for me, i'm not a long term suffering shareholder over there (yet) and hopefully like a weathered sailor, looking out to sea, I have managed to make the most of a changing tide. Time will of course tell though.

[aimsurfer] 26/4/2021 12:42

Only problem with HUM is it's run by jewelry store owners who are clearly learning how to operate a mine on the job. Plenty of lessons learned by now I hope. Have a position there myself.

[backinblack80] 26/4/2021 12:38

millwallfan, thanks for the response. Re point 5, hopefully,Brazil has turned a corner as death rates and cases seem to be falling.Interesting to note.. Brazil's confirmed Covid 19 death rate per million didn't get as bad as it did here in the UK...if you believe in such data

Point 6 - put this accounting issue to bed!

Cheers Chip! I'm an avid reader of your thread..

[plat hunter] 26/4/2021 10:52

HUM is my baby, backed up with a little CEY for something to trade around.HUM's, net cash starting to grow exponentially now too, won't be long before the market wakes up to that one imo.

[chipperfrd] 26/4/2021 10:19

An alternative method to test for under-valuation is to compare against other producer stocks in the PM sector.

Here are the 10 cheapest stocks out of a table of 60 PM producers using the aggregate sum of 5 important metrics. SRB is currently 3rd.

Updated 26/04/2021
Stock name ...... Code .... PER ... PBV .... PSR .... Ev/EBITDA .... PCF
Medusa .......... MML . ... 1.7 ... 0.69 ... 0.59 ......... 0.4 .... 1.5
Hummingbird ..... HUM . ... 2.9 ... 0.64 ... 0.57 ......... 1.3 .... 2.7
Serabi .......... SRB . ... 6.9 ... 1.02 ... 0.98 ......... 2.8 ... 10.6
Mandalay ........ MND . .. 17.3 ... 1.18 ... 0.90 ......... 2.6 .... 6.0
Shanta .......... SHG . .. 10.5 ... 1.08 ... 1.22 ......... 2.3 ... 14.4
Goldfields ...... GV .. ... 8.5 ... 1.61 ... 1.58 ......... 3.5 .... 9.5
Eldorado ........ EGO . .. 18.1 ... 0.52 ... 1.84 ......... 4.1 ... 10.4
Regis Res ....... RRL . ... 8.2 ... 1.55 ... 1.74 ......... 3.0 ... 13.0
Centamin ........ CEY . .. 12.0 ... 1.45 ... 2.26 ......... 3.6 .... 5.8
Kinross ......... KGC . ... 6.9 ... 1.38 ... 2.19 ......... 3.6 ... 13.0

Average 60 stocks ..... .. 47.4 ... 2.08 ... 5.81 ........ 9.8 ... 16.2

PER is Price/Earnings
PBV is Price/Book Value (ie Net Assets)
PSR is Price/Sales
Ev/EBITDA is Enterprise Value (ie MktCap+Debt-Cash) / Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation & Amortisation
PCF is Price/Free Cash Flow

Chip

[millwallfan] 26/4/2021 09:42

BiB. IMHO there are just 5 heavily interrelated major factors to be considered to answer your question .
(1). Can they increase ASAP the volume mined and processed from current 31k towards the promised 100k
(2) price of gold - will the analysts projection of $2,000 plus be sustained
(3) what can they do to reduce the AISC quite a lot (which will increase margins)
(4) the success of further exploration to increase the JORC
(5) the impact of COVID - the national response needs to improve dramatically.

So if you (and other individuals) take a balanced view on points one to three you can calculate a fair baseline share price. Then assuming some decent new finds at (4) ADD some further value for the future potential but this will involve market sentiment on other factors including point five.
Point five - watch the world news - needs some major changes and investment in testing and vaccination.
All IMHO

[backinblack80] 25/4/2021 22:47

Cotton4/tightfist, do you think this stock is undervalued?

[tightfist] 25/4/2021 13:56

Hi Cotton, comparatives with 2020 is a tricky subject for most stocks this year! For a pure Q1 vs Q1 with SRB we have the 18(?) day mill breakdown in February to contend with.....Ho hum, tightfist

[cotton4] 23/4/2021 16:24

difficult to get financials for qtr1 without comparative figures.

[tiger60] 23/4/2021 16:20

We are much more likely to get the financials for Qtr1 and get an insight into AISC

[borisjohnsonshair] 23/4/2021 16:07

Don't wanna be out of these babies for the weekend. The audit might be ready Monday morning.

[trader536] 23/4/2021 13:02

Good post, well thought out.

[oapknob1] 23/4/2021 09:49

Been stopped out wants in lower ? ;-)

[plat hunter] 23/4/2021 07:58

Really Boris, what started to sway your mind...theft, bad accountancy practices, risk of suspension, zero accountability, zero transparency or was it something else entirely?I wouldn't rule out the latest drilling results to have had a decimal point in the wrong place either... 3.50 grams rather than 350. There's zero credibility here with this BOD.

[jonshevlin] 22/4/2021 18:24

Another board destroyed by tw@ts

[trader536] 22/4/2021 16:21

Wow another leg down, this is in the days biggest losers list, worst performing gold stock on my list, well done blockhead Boris 😆😂🤣

Covid is killing the young in Brazil...

[...]

[tiger60] 22/4/2021 16:20

'It’s pretty clear from the chart that this will bounce off 70p to 135p'

i think I need that golden retriever as a guide dog....can't see it myself