Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/10/2020 08:14

Yes but that's the market. It's impatient and ignoring sooo much here. Stay cool, but and it'll catch up.

[catsick] 22/10/2020 08:13

Seems a bit silly to be off 12% on a small shortfall due to covid which is a total one off when there are so many other positive things afoot

[kennyp52] 22/10/2020 08:11

Well below our hopes ( and expectations? ) . Inspire frustration as opposed to confidence . Cash waiting for a bottom .

No guidance for 2021 ? Need to get back to more normal mine working before Covid cripples the credibility of this business and Q4 IMO needs to arrest the slide in production .

Very disappointing

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/10/2020 08:06

Buying at the drop from this average news will be money very well spent in a year. Storm in a tea cup. Everything moving towards 100,000 ounces and massive upside exploration. Mebtioned news could be within two months on exploration drilling and Coringa drilling by middle of 2021. That's earlier than expected.

[tiger60] 22/10/2020 08:03

The financials never come with the production figures. These will come in a few weeks. Nothing left to do but wait to see where we are after opening hour.

Down 8p on ig - make that 10

[bsg] 22/10/2020 08:01

I thought some of the other RNS's where to butter us up a bit for average results.

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/10/2020 07:58

They should pay off Coringa sooner and get its value on the books.

[ppvn] 22/10/2020 07:49

Agreed. Burst my expectation of "showing what they can do" and the absence of financial numbers is also disappointing.

I would however temper that by saying that they should definitely be showing positive pnl for the quarter - even though aisc is likely to have risen yet again as you say Tiger, I'd rather hope the outsize move in gold pricing for inventory sold during the quarter would increase their margin from the $400/oz that was achieved in q2.

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/10/2020 07:47

It's annoying as the MCAP ignores Coringa and all the potential of the exploration. It doesn't even fairly value the successful producing mines, however, missing the forecast for output but not FCF, will probably debt the price. It doesn't matter as I'll see out 2021-2024 easily but I would still be nice to be sitting on a larger share price. Maybe the market is wiser and will see the great management through these challenging times, stable output and massive future potential. Surprise me!!!

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/10/2020 07:40

Kinda agree but if they'd said Q3 estimate was to be 7,000 due to Covid staff reductions and rotations, this would be taken as the roaring success it actually is. Everything is in place for an incredible 2021 plus in Q4 probable US$5M FCF.

[tiger60] 22/10/2020 07:36

No not necessarily profitable for the qtr. positive cash flow doesn’t equate to positive pnl. AISC will be higher than qtr2 and with 15% less production that is not what I call marginal. It is unfortunate that this carries on into qtr 4 when previously advised that predicted production would be getting back to pre Covid levels.

It is what it is and will bounce back with gold going higher and 2021 looking good. We may even attract attention with our increasing coverage and expo results.

But not a good day

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/10/2020 07:34

Crux interview says full payment of Coringa from cash flow by end of Q1 2021. Incredibly good. Covid 19 has delayed Coringa but avoided dilution.

[borisjohnsonshair] 22/10/2020 07:29

Not as great as hoped but profitable and ramping up Q4 & Q1. They have full team back on site, so future looks rosey. Q3 FCF US$. Coringa will be 100% paid for from operations by end of Q1 21!! Plus cash for exploration.

[redtrend] 22/10/2020 07:29

Yet they still managed to generate nearly $4m of free cash flow, with cash balance increasing by $1.4m (now $11m) and $2.5m going to Equinox for Coringa payment.

With $4.5m of the $12m now paid and only $2m of the Convertible Loan Notes used, they're going to use significantly less of the CLNs than originally assumed.

[golden prospect] 22/10/2020 07:25

Steady as she goes is fine given the circumstances, but shame production is marginally down from Q2. Market should be looking forward to 2021, though suspect fickle ones will think otherwise.

[tiger60] 22/10/2020 07:08

That’s not good to say the least (7,224 qtr3). Even qtr 4 predicted at only 8,000

[stan72] 21/10/2020 15:37

Dollar going down and down.

[ppvn] 21/10/2020 15:33

For my next trick I'll say it should end the year about $2.3k bojo...

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/10/2020 15:23

Gold going up & up

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/10/2020 13:10

Good message, thanks. "Rude Health".......that's means great health, right?

[tightfist] 21/10/2020 13:09

Hi Bomber,.Organic growth potential: I agree the ongoing consolidation of tenements to the West of Sao Chico is a very positive indicator - the scale of the artisanal mining in that area never ceases to amaze me. And I take PPVN's point about the prospects for future processing at Sao Chico. The brief aside during the 2019 AGM and the similar musings of MH at the start of a recent Crux interview all point in that direction - and I am further encouraged that they have already prioritised the re-start of exploration in that area..Cheers, tightfist

[bomber13] 21/10/2020 12:45

Whilst we await production stats for Q3 followed in mid-November by the financial results , there should certainly be no concerns with the gold price being received in local currency terms ( see 5 year chart below ) .

When Serabi promised us similar results in Q3 to Q2 on 14th August , i.e. production of 8500 oz and EBITDA of around US$6.2m , the average local gold price for the first 6 weeks of Q3 was just over R10000 per oz , which ended up being comfortably below the actual average outcome of around R10330 per oz for Q3 . That figure is over 12% above the R9182 average for Q2 , and well above the R6909 in Q1 . Obviously the average market price and the average price received are two completely different things , but assuming no unforeseen operational hiccups or costs in Q3 , there would appear to be no worries about Serabi's conservative prediction .

The average gold price to date in Q4 is around R10650 , so , if Serabi's operations can stay COVID free , and get back to 10000oz of quarterly production with a full workforce and full use of the ore sorter , Q4 could be a humdinger of a quarter . We await with interest to hear how the newly extended camp facilities and the new longer shift operating basis are working .

By mid August , Serabi had drawn down US$2m from the US$12m Greenstone convertible facility , and paid off US$2.5m of the US$12m owed to Equinox for the balance of the Coringa purchase cost . Serabi also confirmed that they would continue to pay off the balance of the Equinox debt ( US$9.5m ) at a rate of US$1m per month from cash flow . Bearing in mind that net cash at end June was US$9.6m , and that the main permit for Coringa only came through right at the end of Q3 with its associated capex connotations , Serabi's liquidity position should be in rude health .

And if you are looking for an example of that , just look at the two tenement acquisitions made recently West of the Sao Chico mine in a highly prospective exploration corridor . My guess is that we will be hearing a great deal more about Serabi's organic growth potential per se .

[ppvn] 21/10/2020 09:17

Really doesn't matter bojo. Liquidity is a good thing and the more people actively trading the name the better.

Have patience!

P.s. and wrt thinking we are outsmarting the market - I've been reflecting on that point. I don't personally believe that is what's going on - I just don't think this company is really big enough currently to justify "the market" sitting up and paying attention just yet. Its more like POG (petropavlovsk) in the early days imo. That had a meteoric rise until they overleveraged and the wheels came off. Can't help feeling that SRB are going to enjoy the same sort of rise over the next few years, but hopefully with a different outcome!

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/10/2020 09:04

Who the hell is selling!! I don't get it.

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/10/2020 08:49

Very much appreciated. So the Yahoo trailing years PE ratio is half that of ADVFN (or rather the last SRB financial report. This should mean a doubling of value, if the price between that report and now was unchanged. I suspect this will drop further with Q3. With Coringa it will drop substantially