Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 21/10/2020 08:44

Hi BJH,.Thanks for your reflections on Brasil, you have a positive perception too. My old boss used as his mantra "Perception is Reality" - once I had acknowledged that it was the OTHER person's Perception that was important all became clear - Bolsonaro's impact is a likely case in point. .Regarding TTM here is Stockopedia's info:"Understanding TTM (Trailing Twelve Month)TTM when applied to financial statements data means "Trailing Twelve Months". What this means is that when there has been a recent interim results announcement, those results are incorporated into our computations to create a more up to date 'trailing twelve month' period. This should be contrasted with the last annual results data (which so many financial websites use) which can become very out of date as a company reports through the year"..In the case of SRB it seems as though the data providers (outsourced to by Stockopedia) simply added H2 2019 to the H1 revenue for their TTM revenue. However, they show a revenue forecast which is 9% higher than TTM and we have just-cause to believe in that? Their PPE is 3.5 and a PPEG of 0.1..Regarding the share price there must be a bevy of low PPE miners out there at present (look at Chip's ADVFN Gold thread?). How do SRB/SBI mark themselves out as the investment of choice - which ADDITIONALLY has a very credible and fundable growth plan? (I could ask the same of HUM and CMCL - and ATLN which is a lot more edgy). Queue a drum-roll for the enhanced SRB PR campaign that we all seek......Cheers, tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/10/2020 07:46

Yes, how is ADVFN calculating our PE at 20!! Yahoo states 10 but PE (TTM) - whats the TTM mean? Q2 was good but the AISC high. That was still US$6M, with lower output, no use of ore sorter and lower gold price. This quarter should be US$7M and Q4 US$10M. With Coringa annual circa US$75M!!! So we will be at PE1 unless the price rises!!!! It should rise 400-1000%. What doesn't make sense???

[ppvn] 21/10/2020 07:35

Hi Tightfist,

I'm personally with you wrt the business environment in Brazil. Its certainly getting a lot better (since the carwash scandals etc), though could see why things like licensing could be a concern to some investors. We've both been here some time though, and the reality certainly seems to be that Serabi have been treated fairly, perhaps due to the fact they do seem to be a good corporate citizen (which again, is something I personally think is a good thing!).

Whilst there is obviously the human toll of covid as you say, and agreed that every death is an individual tragedy, I think you're also right that these things will pass. The cynic in me also thinks that the workforce on the ground is perhaps likely to be less affected than the average population (i doubt many of the workforce would be in the "most vulnerable" category for example).

Who knows the exact reason for the seeming under-rating of serabi at the moment. As with anything, time should cure all. The reality imo is that going forward they should be making nearly $40mm net annualised putting us on a p/e of just under 2 currently. And that's without Coringa and all the rest. Certainly will be interesting to see what that blip in 6 months will look like!

[tightfist] 20/10/2020 18:49

Hi PPVN,Personally I am actually quite positive about Brasil, I had some very positive business dealings/affiliates there - but that's not relevant to the question Melody posed in #848..In the wider world I think that Bolsonaro's antics will have had an adverse instantaneous impact on prospective investors/new money. Fast-forward 6 months and hopefully it's all just a blip on some charts in the Western World - however, grieving families in Brasil itself..Cheers, tightfist

[borisjohnsonshair] 20/10/2020 17:50

He's nowhere near your mum.

[pastybap] 20/10/2020 16:31

Believing you are "Smarter than the market" will be a quick route to ruin. Good luck to you.

[borisjohnsonshair] 20/10/2020 16:26

Yep - I'm as baffled but I am often smarter than the markets, hence buy low, sell high.

[ppvn] 20/10/2020 16:00

Don't worry about it. Gold about to embark on its next leg up.

Don't understand what isn't simple about valuing this company. Producing an increasing amount of gold, efficiencies of scale will bring costs down, POG way up, it surely isn't rocket science. Brazil may be Brazil, but bottom line there are a lot of very successful companies that operate in far, far more risky jurisdictions.

Anyway - roll on results day.

[trader536] 20/10/2020 15:03

Q3 delay suggests MH is busy putting lipstick on the pig

[trader536] 20/10/2020 14:29

Get extra toilet paper in for Q3 results, you'll need it.

[tiger60] 20/10/2020 10:29

I think SRB themselves stated Qtr3 would be inline with Qtr2 production rates back in the summer.

[tightfist] 20/10/2020 09:53

Feels to me as though they are drip-feeding the news flow. My positive speculation is that they are awaiting reporting an event regarding completion of the enlarged camp/personnel - of course, it could be COVID-related.....

[borisjohnsonshair] 20/10/2020 09:53

The results aren't late. They've been later & earlier. They'll come soon enough. By Friday I suspect. I fail to see how they can't be better than Q2, as the only thing making them worse would be news worthy.

[tiger60] 20/10/2020 09:16

On the macro front the announcement of the next US stimulus plans (pre or post election) will be the next catalyst to push gold back up to $2,000. And if democrats win the Presidency and Senate then the stimulus will be even higher than touted at the moment (although generally seen as bad for equities as a whole - looking for a Biden win but no senate majority to maintain the status quo - i.e. nothing will get done thus reinforcing the equity market). Whereas a contested election result would result in chaos in the markets

On the micro side it is interesting that at a time we are expecting Qtr3 production figures they release the new acquisition of land rights - I wonder what the thinking is? Why not a joint release?

As to risk - anyone remember Norseman Gold or even Diamondcorp - the risks are high especially as a one site producing operation but the potential rewards are also high.

[tightfist] 20/10/2020 08:23

Hi Poieo, thanks for your direct response, one has to think laterally for a logical reason why the share price us where it is! We could all engage in group-think and Confirmation Bias - but the share price is stubbornly resisting us - at least for the time being! Maybe the 76p CL shares are still being off-loaded? Or just a steady trickle of impatient profit-taking after the last 18 month's rise, reinforcing this tightening formation whilst we await the Q3 results that hopefully will also cover the enlargement/repopulation of the mine camp..Regarding Coringa M&E funding they seem to now have several options open to them, so personally I am not too concerned about that. I still think Brasil is an issue; Bolsonaro's recent flamboyant COVID antics did not help the national PR (and a potential investor's flip response) in my opinion..Cheers, tightfist

[melody9999] 19/10/2020 15:42

Guys - thanks for the measured feedback. Added

[sherry35] 19/10/2020 15:36

I like the acquisition terms on the Sao Domingos leases. Very good terms especially with cash flow increasing dramatically in 2022 with Coringa Au production ramping up.

[sherry35] 19/10/2020 15:30

I think this is great news. For the past 3 years I've been wondering about economic Au deposits west of SC. You can can see artisanal operations on a Google satellite map. So, when does SRB/SBI acquire the exploration license or >> mining license << for the area between SC and Sao Domingos? If the mining license is still valid, can SRB add more production Au ounces to the roster?

[ppvn] 19/10/2020 15:19

I'm thinking at least $700 margin per ounce. Aisc should be $1150 or below and sold price should be at least $1850.

[borisjohnsonshair] 19/10/2020 13:26

Gold rising nicely.