Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[millwallfan] 15/4/2020 21:38

TF. There are some very knowledgeable posters on the AGL thread as well .

[tightfist] 15/4/2020 18:19

Hi MWF,Yes, today was my first really painful day this month - SRB and ALTN have all delivered really well thus far..O/T: Re: AGL, I have no doubts about the core technology, the constant flow of prestigious research papers attest to that. I was enquiring if you had a vision how the Parsortix machines and consumables together with partners were to become part of the mass-market offering. Maybe I should read-up more!.Cheers, tightfist

[millwallfan] 15/4/2020 17:36

Hi tightfist. I am by no means an expert - proven by being £61k down as at today on my portfolio. With regard to Angle from what I can glean their technology is both significantly farther ahead than competitors and also almost 100% accurate. FDA is due by autumn but I guess no-one knows if CV will delay this or alternatively if it will prevent new applications and allow them to focus on progressing existing applications. I acknowledge the arguments that mega pharmas may be anti approval due to self interest but surely the benefits for patients in terms of a no invasive biopsy, easily repeated (especially to identify spread) and individually targeted drug treatment must outweigh everything else.

[borisjohnsonshair] 15/4/2020 16:51

What about ONTX?

[tightfist] 15/4/2020 13:54

Hi MWF,.I too believe in Angle, but sold out for the time being about 6 weeks ago. My judgement was that this market is not a good place to be for cash-consumers and that the FDA decision is not imminent - indeed, currently going backwards? Are you convinced they have a path to monetising at scale the technology, or are you in for takeover potential?.I only hold one cash consumer, Cyan Connode, where the long awaited orders from India could land any day - but I don't suppose CV is helping that one either!.Good luck, tightfist

[millwallfan] 15/4/2020 13:36

Yes I am sure everyone here shares the grief that CV is causing to both close friends and family and across the wider UK and the world. That , I hope remains a constant and is not detracted by our continued discussions and sharing of our investments. I am also invested in Angle (AGL) and that really is a potential win win in terms of incredible benefit for mankind in relation to cancers and a healthy return for those of us prepared to put money into the research. Worth some research for those of you not aware.

[borisjohnsonshair] 15/4/2020 11:23

Agreed re the world, my comment was only related to our update.

[tightfist] 15/4/2020 10:19

Tragic days! - this is only about money....

[borisjohnsonshair] 15/4/2020 09:46

Nice breather - 80-90p next week. Happy days.

[tightfist] 15/4/2020 09:00

Hi Kenny,.Good summary. Negatives? Mine remoteness (currently a massive plus, but usually a substantial negative); they seem very dependent upon MH as our cheer-leader?.Take care! tightfist

[kennyp52] 15/4/2020 08:24

My summary view of SRB simplified as much as possible .... cash generating to the point of closing in on covering all debts, resource improving all the time for drill results, reasonable production given the mechanical issues, new equipment is far more efficient and is likely to drive a substantial increase in production for the rest of the year if the mine stays open and no breakdowns, POG now generating significant margins and with production increase potential in play then AISC is also likely to fall. Negatives?

[borisjohnsonshair] 14/4/2020 23:42

You are spot on and saying what I've said for over a year. Target 500p from me.

[tightfist] 14/4/2020 22:44

Hi,.I suppose the most extreme view one can take is potential Resource Nationalisation, or shades of..In many mining countries we are IMO on the brink of unprecedented economic grief whilst PoG may be warming-up for a very strong upwards run. Will this situation be sustainable or stable? Maybe it will only be a passing phase? tightfist

[millwallfan] 14/4/2020 22:29

Thanks tight-fist. Yes - I accept no company develops in a straight line from the fundamentals at today’s point in time. I assumed 30 months based on my memory that the intention pre CV was to get to 100k in two years. As you will be aware some analysts are really bullish on the PoG bull run and possibly breaching historic highs - which if so and combined with some holders belief in the future exploration outcomes significantly increasing reserves and life of mine might offset any emerging negatives. As always only time will tell lol.

[tightfist] 14/4/2020 20:52

Hi MWF,.You invited some feedback - the major aspect has to be the Greenstone CLN's of which around 13m are planned to be issued. After that we could question is 30 months realistic (given Serabi's track record.....) and what will be the ongoing exploration commitments.But apart from the CLN's, all things considered, you are IMO in the right ball park. What other wild cards? There must be a long list for the risk averse....... but I prefer to sleep at night!.Cheers, tightfist

[millwallfan] 14/4/2020 20:23

LME bid chart showing 1694 6 months and 1697 12 months then a fallback. So the quicker we resume full production and enhanced recovery even with aisc just below 1,100 strong income profile to move the company forward

[tiger60] 14/4/2020 20:14

Yep that’s correct just wondering why you mention ‘if minimal dilution let’s say 60 m shares in issue’ when that is the current state, add on greenstone..anyway doesn’t matter

Gold dropping off highs but it is primed for further gains in the months to come

[millwallfan] 14/4/2020 19:53

And 75% held by just 5 funds so only about 15 million with pi’s

[millwallfan] 14/4/2020 19:48

Under 61.5 mill including share options per company website

[millwallfan] 14/4/2020 19:43

T60 the ‘fundamentals page’ on my iii account for serabi shows 58.91 million shares - perhaps that’s out of date.

[tiger60] 14/4/2020 18:35

Great couple of business days for SRB

Millwall have you checked how many shares are currently in issue, and how many post greenstone, plus 2m in treasury?

[millwallfan] 14/4/2020 18:24

I am still struggling to believe the potential ball park figures which I derive from the info posted here and from the company. Let’s be conservative and say over the next 3 years the gold price averages $1,600. Let’s say it takes 30 months to get to the 100,000 oz production. Let’s say with the sorters etc the aisc averages $1,000 then the gross profit is $60 million per annum. Assuming current cash flow can finance most of debts then if minimal dilution let’s say 60 million shares in issue = $1 per share profit. Average p/e for a producing miner is 10 but as operating South America let’s say market values at 8 which would give a share price of $8 which at exchange rate of say 1.25 = circa £6.25 per share. That makes no provision for an increased jorc over that period. Yes there are accepted risks of decline in pog or heaven forbid a mining accident Can one or more of you well informed individuals please shoot me down if I have got any major flaws as this could clear my mortgage lol

[loganair] 14/4/2020 17:08

Gold has extended its rally with prices reaching their highest level in more than seven years on investor concerns that the Covid-19 pandemic will have a devastating effect on the global economy.

Futures are nearing $1,800 an ounce after trading in the $1,400s less than four weeks ago. Prices are now at their highest level since October 2012. Spot gold was up more than five percent on Tuesday at $1,718 an ounce.

Gold appears to have “solid, big-picture, bullish fundamentals in place as deteriorating economic sentiment globally suggests even larger waves of government support will be seen in China, India, Europe and the US,” analysts at Zaner Metals told the Market Watch.

Global holdings in bullion-backed, exchange-traded funds have ballooned to record levels on rising demand, with investors seeking additional portfolio protection. On Monday, volumes in SPDR Gold Shares (the largest such fund) skyrocketed above 1,000 tons to the highest volume since mid-2013.

“Gold’s biggest stumbles during this crisis have been because investors were on a search for cash liquidity to cover losses and margin calls elsewhere, not because their attitude toward gold shifted,” said Christopher Louney, analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

“Even as markets improve, whether temporarily or not, and investors come back, we think gold will also absorb inflows alongside other asset classes. Market participants are aware of the risks out there, and an asset like gold that we have long recommended as a risk overlay stands to receive ongoing support, and we think the firmest support is now at our high scenario,” he added.

Some experts point out that the gold market’s future looks bright at a time of unprecedented uncertainty. “We would expect to see prices over $2,000 by sometime early next year. That is not a surprise, fundamentally either, in the current environment,” Peter Grosskopf, chief executive officer at Sprott said.

[cruxinvestor] 14/4/2020 12:07

Hi guys, here is our latest interview with Serabi Gold on their 2019 figures. Watch here:

The highlight being the cash position of USD$14.23M at the end of the year. Other notable numbers are Net cash USD$5M; the AISC at USD$1,081 up from 2018; EBITDA $17.2M; average gold price received of USD$1,376; total ore mined increased by 8% at average grade of 7%. The company continues to produce free cash flow and the Brazil Real exchange rate is also helping.

We also discuss the Q1/20 Operational Announcement. Feb production was impacted by an unexpected failure of a ball-mill, which was down for 2 weeks. However, the new ore-sorter, albeit in a test period, is delivering astonishing results. Hodgson gives an indication of the sorts of numbers it is delivering and can expect to continue delivering. The quarter ended up only slightly down on production forecast as a result.

Let us know your thoughts here and in the YouTube comment section!

[bomber13] 14/4/2020 11:41

What cheered me up no end in that CRUX interview today was not only the admission that the 26th March RNS was far too clinically worded , which promoted doubt about Greenstone's commitment , but the reassurance that Greenstone is not going to throw a spanner in the works with regard the convertible or its pricing . At this juncture I would rather Greenstone's self-interest in a higher share price was aligned with all shareholders .

It may well be that Serabi will not need to draw down all US$12m of the convertible given cash flow at these gold prices , if they are allowed to do that , but the greater prize to the development of Coringa , and the ongoing success of Palito and Sao Chico might just be the exploration results from those anomalies that have even greater geophysical signatures than the mines themselves . For that we will need lots of cash to drill , and a return to pre-virus normality .

We should get first pass drilling results from the big anomalies West of Sao Chico in the next few weeks , and I did note that Mike Hodgson described them in this morning's announcement as " very exciting " .