Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tiger60] 24/2/2020 19:11

Hope some of you got your put options. What a day. Now for SRB

[tightfist] 24/2/2020 18:55

Hi MWF,.I too am bullish SRB but I am not quite as Bullish as you. We should exit the 2020 FY on a Palito Complex run-rate of 50kOz pa (NB: assumes tailings are replaced) and I suggested the other day 16kOz from Coringa in H2 2021, suggesting a total of 66kOz. .Regarding potential AISC and cash expense, I suggest you also take into account the cash spend which will NOT probably register on the P&L in 2021, ie prior to Coringa Commercial Production?.Until that point I don't foresee a dividend - but will be delighted to be proven wrong! Of course, a major farm-in may change all of that........Cheers, tightfist

[millwallfan] 24/2/2020 16:52

Thanks all - at least it seems I am in the right ballpark - so more sweet dreams tonight as opposed to nightmares lol

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/2/2020 16:49

Spot on. Several people now coming up with the same numbers I've been publishing for months.

[king suarez] 24/2/2020 16:41

MWF,

That looks about right. Fair value here is currently c£3 a share and at 90k oz production would be £5+ - and that is still cheap, but given some discount due to being in Brazil, rather than somehwhere like Canada, which would command a higher rating imo.

Thing is, SRB is not the only undervalued gold miner, pretty much all producing gold miners appear way undervalued at current gold price.

The risks here are execution risk - will the ore sorter work as expected (looks good so far)

Will Coringa run to plan/budget?

Is the political climate in Brazil safe?

Will the gold price hold?

It's a good bet and as undervalued as others like TSG, SHG, HUM - take your pick really?!

[ppvn] 24/2/2020 16:39

For the next couple of years I guess Serabi will be paying down (to be agreed) debt as well as financing Coringa / possible expansion at Palito. Also, don't forget there will be additional shares in issue from the yet to be approved but likely to proceed Greenstone Convertible debt notes - but yes my numbers are also very lofty.

[millwallfan] 24/2/2020 16:23

Please correct me ASAP as I think I am either dreaming or my o level maths is long forgotten. According to ADVFN there are just under 59 million serabi shares - let’s say 60 million to keep things simple.
Last year we produced over 40,000 oz so let’s say we hit 45,000 this year. Gold is now nearly $1,700 an ounce and consensus is our aisc will be circa $1,000.
So other things being equal, our gross profit should be 45,000 times $700 = $ 31,500,000 divided by 60 million shares = 52 cents = 41pence PER SHARE. Accepting need to retain funds for future investments and exploration surely 4p dividend is not beyond the realms of my dreams and at an average p/e of 10 for producing mines being prudent must give us a share price of £3 plus. Then my dream went into overdrive and I had a vision of 2021 production at 90k ozs and gold continuing its bull run towards $2,000 with an aisc of $900 - then I fainted !!! HELP ME PLEASE WITH CORRECTED ASSUMPTIONS

[sherry35] 24/2/2020 14:24

Could some of the trading be attributed to bots? I've seen this happen on SRB a few months back when the stock ran up 15 cents from the open in the morning and traded down 15 cents (from open) in the afternoon. Same houses, small lot sizes.

[tiger60] 24/2/2020 11:29

The thing is this share is so illiquid any buying, in theory, should result in massive spikes but it is not happening. Equally upon bad news I would expect sharp falls.

At the moment it is creeping up but let’s hope it is the precursor to something more substantial. After reading the market correction correctly it would be a shame not to be fully rewarded

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/2/2020 10:17

Yes - I have kinda hinted the same

[morethanme] 24/2/2020 10:02

The PEA was definitely conservative, with both POG and also the contingency. If Coringa is built without using the contingency, we are looking at $20m build cost vs $25m.

[ppvn] 24/2/2020 09:54

I'm still of the view this current share price is way off. The only thing I can put it down to is that whenever I've tried to buy historically I've only been able to get small clips - buying more than about £5k here at a time was always hard. Would be surprised if £1 isn't passed very soon though.

[cotton4] 24/2/2020 09:52

The current pog kind of makes a mockery of the pogs used in the PEA.

[loganair] 24/2/2020 09:49

The price of gold currently 7,404BRLs up 46% over the past year & $1,686

[borisjohnsonshair] 24/2/2020 08:40

Just look at our AISC for Palito alone in 2020 - 50,000 ounces. We are going to clear over US$25M. That alone puts us in the 250p range.

[tiger60] 24/2/2020 08:13

Got my put showing good traction, gold up to 1678. Only waiting for this to reflect macro economic climate. Hoped for a spike at opening

[tightfist] 24/2/2020 08:13

You now have three accomplices!

[tightfist] 24/2/2020 08:05

First trade of the day paid full Ask.....

[tiger60] 24/2/2020 07:35

Spot gold $1668. 25 up