Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 22/5/2019 08:23

Agree with all of you! I am not concerned about the final Coringa payment but I am still thoughtful about the impending PEA and the total cost of getting Coringa to commercial production and reaching 100kpa overall. Maybe spend on the acquired Anfield plant will be minimal - maybe not. And it maybe not optimal-for-purpose; SRB have/will move forward in sustaining higher mill grades from narrow veins.

[ppvn] 21/5/2019 21:22

Agree with both of the above, in particular the coringa final payment being the sticking point currently. I'm not overly concerned due to the fact the long awaited cost reductions seem to finally be coming to fruition, and they have a pretty healthy cash balance at the moment. Couple that with the fact that they've been able to access debt in the past and successfully manage repayments gives me a bit of (perhaps optimistic?) comfort that shareholders shouldn't be damaged by the final payment.

I think also that the remaining balance has put some people off so the historic low liquidity has dropped further - then Anker disposing of shares dropped the share price by 50%. Finally I guess that Garraway will begin selling again in the 40-50p range? They don't appear to be sticky holders and having presumably bought City Financial out at a discount may just be looking for a quick(ish) buck.

But yes, my personal view is that Serabi are in their present guise worth at least 3x the current SP, and if Cindarella or the other anomalies turn up some surprises could be significantly more. In the coming two years that could increase much further - if they get a couple of million oz in resources proved up and get near to 100k production per year it'll be a different prospect altogether.

I'm not convinced they will look to pay any sort of dividends in the coming years since they seem to be building a portfolio of mines in the area, but they obviously seem to think there is a major discovery yet to be found. I'm happy with that potential.

[ironstorm] 21/5/2019 19:26

I think you are making some fair points.

As it will is SRB is an anomaly.

I think it’s Coringa hanging over the price at the moment.

Once that starts to move your £1 should be history.

[pakenham] 21/5/2019 18:49

I've ben watching this for five years - I used to think it was a good buy at well over 100p equivalent - very little has changed since then and I have finally bought some in low 30s. Currently on a run rate basis fro 1st quarterlies it seems to be operating on a pe of not much more than 3. It has great upside if gold does move north. LOM seems very long too unlike some goldies. Over the next weeks and months production should increase too with better grades. The forward plan is to more than double production. Currency improvement too and stable jurisdiction - I would like to see the company do more pr to explain how undervalued this is - something I understand they are doing and hope to expand the share register significantly. I think this should currently be trading at between 70 and 8op on the profits it is currently making which gives it a pe of considerably less than 10. With expansion planned my longer targets are well above £1. Any thoughts?

[ppvn] 21/5/2019 15:13

Hi,

Something I hadn't discovered last week but have just had a good read through is the comprehensive management discussion that was published last week. It contains far more detail than the RNS and is a good read though at 43 pages it may not be for the easily bored! Ore sorter is in the country, interesting points to note re. the Coringa final payment, Cindarella progress, etc. It also talks about the difference between Palito and Sao Chico ore; they may be able to upgrade the ore sorter in time to colour scanning which would enable them to sort the Sao Chico ore too. I found it interesting and very positive, despite the share price

[cpap man] 21/5/2019 08:50

KAV



Some nice words in the morning note from the highly respected mining analyst John Meyer at share price Angel ref: LSE:KAV / www.kavangoresources.com /Tw*tt*r = #KAV



Kavango Resources (KAV LN) 3.6p, Mkt Cap £5.7m – Laws of probability to be rewritten after Kavango strikes mineralisation in first and second drill holes under Karoo sand in Botswana

Kavango, which is exploring for a large-scale bushveld igneous-type mineralisation reports results from a second drill hole in Botswana.

The team which are highly experienced in the geology of the region have used geophysical data and remote sensing to establish drilling locations.

Remarkably, the first drill hole hit mineralisation under the sandy Karoo sediments
Even more remarkably the second drill hole is reported to have also hit mineralisation including copper in chalcopyrite with a 1.5% XRF gun reading. X-Ray Frequency gun readings are not considered to be reliable due to their potential for miss-reporting but we do place some value on the readings when in the honorable hands of Messrs. Foster and Moles.

The first drill hole hit a 200m zone of intensely altered rock with indicative cobalt values of up to 0.9%, averaging 0.2% cobalt and >70m of elevated copper, zinc, lead and nickel values.

Conclusion: Kavango is worth watching and we await results from drill core assays. While we never doubted the skill of the geological team we are surprised and impressed to see two sets of mineralised results in so short a time frame. Well done team!

[tightfist] 20/5/2019 21:41

Hi Sherry,I (and the Greenstone director?) would be looking for any new Options to be priced at 72p plus, possibly with additional performance conditions attached. IMO we have to focus the ED's on share price delivery, not a gravy-train.Cheers, tightfist

[sherry35] 18/5/2019 02:24

A bunch of executive stock options expired today. Perhaps its time to issue some new options. Do you think the share price is low enough for the strike price?


Filing
Date Transaction
Date Insider Name Ownership
Type Securities Nature of transaction Volume or Value Price
May 17/19 May 15/19 Williams, Melvyn Direct Ownership Options 52 - Expiration of options -65,000
May 17/19 May 15/19 Swett, Felipe Direct Ownership Options 52 - Expiration of options -50,000
May 17/19 May 15/19 Rosselot, Juan Eduardo Direct Ownership Options [Amended Filing] 52 - Expiration of options -50,000
May 17/19 May 15/19 Line, Clive Malcolm Direct Ownership Options [Amended Filing] 52 - Expiration of options -150,000
May 17/19 May 15/19 Hodgson, Michael Jonathan Direct Ownership Options [Amended Filing] 52 - Expiration of options -200,000
May 17/19 May 15/19 Harvey, T. Sean Direct Ownership Options 52 - Expiration of options -80,000
May 17/19 May 15/19 Banados Lyon, Nicolas Ramon Direct Ownership Options 52 - Expiration of options -50,000
May 17/19 May 15/19 Alegria Olate, Hector Aquiles Direct Ownership Options [Amended Filing] 52 - Expiration of options -50,000

[smoothtosmooth] 17/5/2019 23:32

The market cap is wrong here everyone else is reporting 18.77 these seem cheap

[tightfist] 17/5/2019 15:34

And some are using a Core and Satellite approach.....

[loganair] 17/5/2019 09:45

Traders are Buying and Selling to make pennies while Investors are Buying to Hold for major gains in the medium term.

[king_baller] 17/5/2019 09:31

Who the hell is selling this at a market cap below £20 mil?! Have they not read the Q1 update on Monday?! Re: gold - The trade war is getting ratcheted up, soon past the point of no return. War is close to breaking out in Middle East. Could go on a good run from here.

[loganair] 17/5/2019 09:10

One reason I like the Russian gold miners is as soon as they're become profitable they start paying a dividend, often 50% of profits.

[tightfist] 16/5/2019 22:48

I hadn't foreseen a dividend in the next few years. Maybe I am prejudiced by other micro-goldies behaviour but MH seems to have lots of ideas on how to spend our cash on exploration and expansion (and acquisitions?) at reasonable RoI's - and remember that the two executives have negligible shareholding's.....

[loganair] 16/5/2019 22:28

I think in the medium term, anyone who paid less then 50p per share will do well and make a good profit with their investment in Serabi.

I'm also hoping in 2021 when Serabi are forecast to have an eps of 15.07p they'll start paying a dividend.

[tightfist] 16/5/2019 22:05

Hi PPVN,Your recollection re Tailings stockpile is the same as mine - but if it generates cash in 2019, it's all grist to the mill!The ore sorter should be sustainable over the years; I heard that whilst the Palito ore is sortable the Sao Chico ore is x-Ray optically different and may not be so amenable to sorting?Investors who pay extra for Level 2 access can see who leading the Bid and the Offer on AIM so you get an insight to who is willing to do the deal. Maybe another poster can shed some further light - I think that there is possibly another UK market (NEX?) SRB is sometimes traded on? Thought: I don't know if this gives any clues to the overhang shares activity? On top of this there is some delayed reporting today where it looks like someone made a killing on the spread.Cheers, tightfist

[ppvn] 16/5/2019 19:31

Hi Sherry,

We don't really get that degree of clarity this side I don't think (or that I'm aware of!). Usually with these juniors its houses like peel, winterflood etc though to the best of my knowledge.

One last thing; "paid a bit high?!" Oof if only!

[sherry35] 16/5/2019 15:48

Hi PPVN - Indeed your side of the pond got a nice bounce. Is there any particular MM or trading house stand out over the past two days of trading? Any of them that deal with investment inst. such as Sprott Asset Mgmt or JP Morgan (da boyz manipulation club member)?

[guyswonga74] 16/5/2019 15:48

I have also bought in today. Maybe paid a bit high but agree this is very undervalued gold play. Should easily get back over year high of 60p plus

[king_baller] 16/5/2019 14:54

I’ve opened up a position here this afternoon. By far the most undervalued gold miner I have come across. The upside is huge.

[ppvn] 16/5/2019 09:30

Hi Tightfist,

Yes, that's my understanding too. I believe the tailings pile (and this is just from memory) was 40k tonnes at a grade of c. 3g/t. My understanding was that the pile would be around a years worth of supply.

So it looks to me like the pile is around 1 years worth, or just enough to supply until the ore sorter is live.

Hi Sherry, I was rather hoping you'd see a bounce on your side of the pond too but I guess you didn't fall quite as dramatically as us in the first place. Looking solid again today here though so fingers crossed for you! Wrt the resource base, I think that's really important but it is difficult to get a huge mine life in hard rock. They seem to be doing well with it though. If they can prove up a load of veins then that's great as when they get to 100k or so, if they have a couple of million oz proved up they start being a much more attractive proposition from a balance sheet (potential acquisition?) perspective.

[tightfist] 16/5/2019 07:16

Hi PPVN, if I understand correctly, the scrubber is life-limited by depletion of the tailings stockpile as opposed to the ore-sorter which is of (to be proven) ongoing value to the Palito operation. How many ounces are still held within the Tailings?Good to see positive progress and volume on the share price front! tightfist

[sherry35] 15/5/2019 19:25

PPVN - All positive progress made by SBI executive team with more production costs reductions to come . I like your statement "ounces in the ground being proved up". SBI's book value will be based on the resource calculation and the operations. They need to prove up to 2M to 3M ounces.

[ppvn] 15/5/2019 13:59

Thanks Loganair, decent numbers.

Exploration upside, ounces in the ground being proved up. Definitely bullish here even if some large holders have been selling.

[loganair] 15/5/2019 13:52

A year ago Serabi said they're hoping to get the AISC down to $1,000 with in a year and further down to $950 per oz a year later.

Forecast eps for year ending:

2019 - 04.29p
2020 - 11.25p
2021 - 15.07p