Serabi Gold Share Discussion Threads

[kinloch] 18/4/2017 21:12

Agood rise on tsx to-night look for blue to-morrow.

[kinloch] 18/4/2017 14:37

The potential is being recognised here after a long wait.Present gold price is the driver coupled with good management and sound direction an interesting period ahead with respect of output increases.

[bsg] 18/4/2017 11:32

Don't you think this may only be a blip due to geopolitical events?

[tightfist] 18/4/2017 11:29

Hi Hraj,

It finally looks as though the SRB word is spreading – a game of patience!

Here is the February BMO conference presentation:
hxxp://1ab2g8adc2a2np23a4ey1nch.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/Serabi-Gold-Marketing-presentation-BMO-Feb-2017-final.pdf

Reviewing that I am intrigued by slide 7 (estimated cost of adding 60,000 Oz = US$12m – presumably this is the drilling costs?) and slide 28 where “… subsequent production increase, targeting 100koz using positive cash flow. Equity financing would accelerate this growth”.

I was really looking for the production growth funding to come from reintroduced Debt and Cash Flow – rather than dilution based upon a lowly MC of £42m. Hopefully the plan is to get to 60,000 Oz in 2018 before any equity financing.

If dilution is zero/minimised and Cash Costs are maintained I am looking for a lot more than 10p in due course; first step is to complete a Cup and Handle formation and break 7p.

Cheers, tightfist

[hraj] 18/4/2017 08:51

Superb.. Still want 10p here..been waiting a long time to see this move.

[bigdazzler] 18/4/2017 08:35

Nice positive action recently I'm still positive this will run up towards the 7p mark.

[hraj] 13/4/2017 09:30

Nice one tight fist..i value youre input plz keep it coming.
We are seeing thid creep up the radar slowly. Gold today hit 1290.. Can see 1300 taken out however what price have we hedged at.. And why have we not paid the debt to sprott early.. I assume there must be something else e.g. negotiations for further loans as you have mention.

[tightfist] 13/4/2017 09:08

Here is a link to yesterday's brrmedia 6 minute interview with MH, reviewing the Q1 results (which includes the national Carnivale holiday euphoria). Mike goes on to mention a forthcoming technical report, and towards the end speculates about plant investment at Sao Chico and "60-70,000 Oz at the very least":https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/58ee068dad2a006c3094c879/serabi-gold-first-quarter-2017-operations-updateWhen is Serabi going to get on investor's radar screen!?Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 12/4/2017 18:51

Hi Hraj,Since end 2014 they have increased shares in issue by 16% which is OK by me. In 2016 SRB reduced net debt by $10m, and increased fixed assets by $8m so with underlying cash generation (coupled with re-increasing debt) I am hopeful they can fund organic growth without any further dilution. That depends on how aggressive they want to be? Gut feel says one more mill at Palito (2017?) followed by a new process plant based at Sao Chico (late 2018?) would take them well on their way to 100k - I haven't attempted a cash flow, however! Obviously that depends a lot on PoG over the next 18 months.Cheers, tightfist

[hraj] 12/4/2017 13:42

Hi Tightfist.. I hope if more debt is taken on then we don't dilute.. sick of dilution.. and this has seen its fair share.. it used to be 0.4p before they consolidate and brought the price down from 40p to 6p.. never really recovered since.

[tightfist] 12/4/2017 09:23

Hi Hraj,Yes, an excellent update this morning on both the operational side and the exploration progress.They are gradually(!) working their way through the surface stockpile and tailings which is suppressing their head grade for the time being - once that feed tapers-off we should see production increasing and moving the run-rate well beyond the 40k guidance.(Other than re-stating their bottleneck) I see no clues on their next investment in process plant capacity. With underground development running well ahead, surely an announcement on mills, circuit, etc has to be imminent? Looks to me as though Mike wants to be in a situation to maybe approach both Sprott (preferred?) and Fratelli to take on some fresh debt and gear-up, alongside deploying organic cash generation.Finally even the share price seems to be awaking from it's slumbers - not before time!Cheers, tightfist

[ironstorm] 12/4/2017 08:48

Still feeling positive on srb after this update which starts to derision the EOY numbers.

I do get the feeling that target guidance was set to be beaten.

And Gold looking perky - trying to get above that 1300.

[hraj] 12/4/2017 08:47

excellent market update this morning.. the company continues to make excellent progress.. the gold price continues upwards..and the real hasnt really moved in the last quarter. technically speaking we are above 5p. and need to hold onto the 5p to see 5.5-5.7 short term(heres hoping).

[tightfist] 12/4/2017 07:40

IIRC they have rolled-over the last $1.3m of the Sprott loan until August, rather than paying it down from cash.

[king kong dong] 12/4/2017 07:36

what debt figures are you referring to hraj?

[hraj] 05/4/2017 10:48

yes very quiet indeed tightfist.. thanks for the above, simply not much to add at the moment.. the share price is still in limbo land. I just wish mike delivered his promise of clearing the debt. the real seems to have stabilized at around 3 to the dollar, doesn't look like much movement there even though gold has strengthened.. heading towards may sell and come back in sept.. so i don't think we will see any movement here now until the end of the year.. may just drift lower again, the chart is indicating sidetrend.. but could be mistaken as volumes are very low recently.

[tightfist] 05/4/2017 09:20

Wow, it's quiet around here! Here is the latest 31st March Hodgson interview:https://www.brrmedia.co.uk/broadcasts/58dd0d20e742d95c634a2082/serabi-gold-results-for-the-year-ended-31-december-2016It looks like steady progress ahead, reinvesting their increasing cash flow for organic growth, with modular Capex and operational leverage. The valuation does seem weak, a game of patience? Hopefully some sparks will fly before we get a madden dividend?Cheers, tightfist

[tightfist] 30/3/2017 10:46

Hi Cotton, IronStorm,

I follow SRB quite closely so I was not surprised by today’s positive results, but to a more casual observer I think they would be attractive. Paying-down debt and increasing cash balances by $10.5m (£8.5m) by an (almost) debt-free miner with a MC of £33m is pretty useful; Net Assets have increased by 35% during 2016. (I note the remaining Sprott loan has been extended to 31/08/2017).

This cashflow provides lots of scope to finance organic growth, and there is increasing confidence that they have the tenements and geology to invest in. Hodgson seems to be quite effective at purchasing secondhand plant and installing it effectively (on a shoe string?); I wonder how cheaply they could start the creation of a new processing facility at Sao Chico?

I like their reduction of unit costs by 13% in local currency, and the continuous rise in grade from Sao Chico. However, within Finance Expense there is a hefty charge of $1.3m for gold hedging activities – I don’t recall news on that before, though I see that they were also hedging in 2015. Was it a condition of the Sprott loan?

For me Hodgson has a good record of delivering and his words “…..I am very confident that the probability of successfully increasing our production over the next 12-18 months is high” are good enough for me, backed by circumstantial evidence such as “…identified a number of significant anomalies that appear larger than Sao Chico itself”.

Flat production for 2017 is not inspirational but a growth path to 80,000-100,000 Oz. over the next four years is outlined for the patient investor.

Finally, the Chairman’s comments read to me as though they may become a bid target? As yet there is no brrmedia update.


Cheers, tightfist

[ironstorm] 30/3/2017 08:08

They have cleared off most of the debt and now have net cash. Their production last year was excellent.

So they are now in a good position. This years target looks set for them to be able to beat it.

Now if the real position changes and the pog continues strengthening that will turbo charge them.

Whilst recognising your concerns over new finds I feel much more positive.

[sleveen] 30/3/2017 08:04

Completely agree C4.

Stagnation this year with potential production in 2018/19

[cotton4] 30/3/2017 07:35

Although 2016 has been a good year financially, the short term outlook is disappointing. 2017 forecast production is on a par with 2016 at a higher aisc, due mainly to the strengthening of the Real. As it stands forecast production of 100,000 ounces has been pushed out by a year and this target depends on the outcome of further exploration activity.(A bit miffed that the delay, due to wet weather, was not notified to shareholders by way of rns).I would question increased production targets without further capacity, by way of a new production facility at Sao Chico, which may be eventually funded by way of current cash flows, a new issues of shares or more likely a combination of both. Concerned that existing debt has not been cleared.
IMO, the future of Serabi hinges on new discoveries, which in fairness to Mike and his team, do exist but until that is clear, I will tend to avoid Serabi in the meantime. All, of course imo and dyor.

[kinloch] 23/3/2017 13:12

Something going on lets hope it gets this share price moving.

[tightfist] 22/3/2017 14:53

PoG on a roll and not a single SRB trade all day! Comatose, or what?

[kinloch] 20/3/2017 20:43

could they be short of stock looks like trades to-day were buys but marked as sells.
we shall see.

[kinloch] 16/3/2017 20:04

Could get a move up as the tsx has moved up twice this week.