Seplat Energy Share Discussion Threads

[dukedosh] 25/1/2016 11:09

The worries here for me is the high debt level in this low oil price environment and the on going attacks to pipeline infrastructure by the locals we keep hearing about. Apart from that, they are doing ok.

[whiskeyinthejar] 25/1/2016 07:56

Looks really good on first scan. Don't see pioneer mentioned.

Overall production up 41% ahead of guidance, gas up 119%.

I don't know any other small oily which looks to be doing so well just now.

[dukedosh] 26/10/2015 15:25

This from RBC earlier:

Outperform Speculative Risk Target Price 150 Price 77

SEPLAT this morning published numbers for the first nine months of 2015, which included Q3/15 production and revenue beats that flowed down to the bottom line. We expect the stock to outperform its peers today.

Earnings: Production in the first nine months of 2015 averaged 40,012boe/d, which indicated that output in Q3/15 averaged over 54,000boe/d (we were forecasting 51,600boe/d). The company benefited from a marked improvement in uptime of the Trans Forcados System, the oil export system was down for only two days during the third quarter; the company achieved record levels of output of 56,415boe/d in September as gas sales grew. Nine-month revenues of $420m beat our $391m forecast, and combined with lower cost of sales than we anticipated, the company announced an operating profit of $115m for the Q1-Q3/15 period, including $44m in Q3/15, which beat our forecast. Profit after tax totaled $69m or $0.12/share ($0.08 forecast).

Cash: SEPLAT ended Q3/15 with cash at bank of $445m - $343m of cash-in-hand and $102m of restricted cash – which fell below our $500m forecast primarily because debt repayments ($75m) and capex ($98m) in the year to date exceeded our forecast. Gross debt at the end of September of $925m, was below our $946m forecast. FY15 capex guidance remains unchanged at $168m. The outstanding NPDC net receivable as at 30 September was $461m, down from $504m at mid-year; the reduction came primarily as a result of the agreement signed between SEPLAT and NPDC in July whereby gas revenues attributable to NPDC’s interest in OMLs 4, 38 and 41 are offset against the balance of arrears.

Dividend: In a nod to a tough year, which has been partially offset by a stronger Q3/15 performance, the Board has agreed an interim core dividend of $0.04 per share ($0.05 forecast). The dividend will be paid on or shortly after 17 November to shareholders on the register at the close of business on 29 October.

Outlook: Given the potential for unscheduled downtime, management has kept FY15 production guidance unchanged at 32-36,000boe/d; but this looks readily achievable as gas sales continue to ramp up and additional oil export and storage capacity is commissioned; our current forecast is >40,000boe/d. The company continues to benefit from a limited amount (17,000b/d @$52/bbl) of oil price hedging in Q4/15. As stated previously, SEPLAT is currently engaged with NIPC on Pioneer Tax ‘compliance testing’ and it expects an outcome during Q4/15; management considers itself to have met or exceeded all conditions and a positive update would send the stock materially higher.

[keith95] 24/10/2015 17:55

Indeed .... wonder if SEPL has managed to take out AFREN for a snip?

The lows are still getting higher by the looks ;)

[whiskeyinthejar] 23/10/2015 16:28

Seplat website says Monday 26th for Q3 results.

I hope RBC don't dial in a day late for the conference call ;) Oops.

The gas numbers should be interesting imho. And receivables should have declined as they made progress with NNPC on a deal.

[dukedosh] 23/10/2015 15:50

This from RBC earlier today:

Seplat Petroleum (SEPL.L): Q3/15 Results – 27th October

Seplat is scheduled to release its Q3/15 results on Tuesday and we expect the company to host a conference call and webcast. We are forecasting net production in Q3/15 averaged ~50,000boe/d, reflecting a continued increase in production capacity from OMLs 4, 38 and 41; however, reported sales will depend upon export pipeline uptime and the company’s to export via alternative routes. Current FY15 guidance is 32-36,000boe/d, which we also expect management to update for increased production across these licences. Based on Q3/15 average Brent of ~$51/bbl, we expect gross revenues to be ~$146m and operating cash flow of ~$24m. At the end of July, Seplat had $29m in a new escrow account in London, pending agreement of terms of the Newton Energy transaction; management may provide an update on the deal in its results.

[whiskeyinthejar] 11/10/2015 19:52

NNPC have been using ALL revenue from exports to fund joint ventures for last 5 months. Nothing from exports going to government coffers.



"A monthly financial and operations report released at the weekend by the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), detailing its activities in the oil and gas sector from January to August this year, has revealed that no single dollar remittance was been made into the Federation Account from Nigeria’s take-ins on its crude oil and gas that were exported in the last five months."



"It explained that subsequent months of April, May, June, July, and August had zero dollar transferred to the Federation Account as all earnings from export crude oil were diverted to offset the monthly Joint Venture (JV) Cash Calls obligations of about $615.8 million as appropriated by the National Assembly."

[whiskeyinthejar] 11/10/2015 19:28

Chart The Day No.2: Seplat Petroleum: Falling Wedge Target At 114p
By Zak Mir | Sunday 11 October 2015

"While we may not quite be at the feeding frenzy level in terms of the recovery in oil & gas plays of all shapes and sizes on the stock market, I would venture to suggest that we are not too far off from this point yet. The daily chart of Seplat Petroleum illustrates some of the issues that investors are facing in this space, with the starting gun on the latest phase of recovery here being a narrow bear trap reversal to start October from below the former August 67.25p floor and a temporary new low for 2015.

Since then the past few sessions have developed a weekly close back above the 50 day moving average at 8.249p, with added momentum provided by sharp bullish divergence in the RSI window and a RSI bounce off neutral 50, something which should continue to guide the shares higher. Just how high they could fly is suggested by a combination of the top of a falling wedge formation in place on the daily chart from as long ago as December, and the 200 day moving average at 114p.

The likelihood now is that especially while there is no break back below the 50 day line one would expect to see an acceleration to the upside. The timeframe on a possible move to the 200 day line zone is regarded as being the next 1-2 months."

- See more at:

I can't get the chart to show, but try



I'm not a huge fan of his site, but there you go.

[riggerbeautz] 09/10/2015 21:14

Needs a run up to 100p area for me, then might add on any sort of pullback.

[keith95] 09/10/2015 18:46

.. chart says higher low .. just .... so fingers crossed ;)

[ncp3] 01/10/2015 14:26

FYI

Coverage article 29/09/2015

[...]

Coverage article 30/09/2015

[...]

[keith95] 28/8/2015 22:59

.... bought more today :)

[dukedosh] 26/8/2015 21:41

Good to see you too WITJ.

Here's an interesting take on the oil situation.

Brent crude will rise to $85 by year-end: Analyst

[dukedosh] 25/8/2015 23:22

Eric Nuttall, portfolio manager, Sprott Asset Management on BNN today lays out a very interesting and bullish case for oil and energy stocks.

[riggerbeautz] 24/8/2015 21:32

Duke, often lurking around and I'm doing ok despite the odd Nigerian trauma!

These did better than BP. well close enough. That says a lot about what's happening in this sector, no way can the BP. divvy stack up at this rate, something will give. Sorry for off topic, but just trying to illustrate SEPL like BP. tied in to market carnage until it stops. And "when" will it re-rate could save a small fortune if the timing is right.

[dukedosh] 24/8/2015 21:23

Hi RB. Nice to see you're still around.

When indeed, is the big question we would all like to know the answer to. FWIW and IMO, looking at the EIA numbers and comparing this with '86, for me the big difference is well depletion and the amount of over supply in time terms. Well depletion is now double it was back then. Current stocks are merely a matter of a couple of weeks, back then it was several months. With world wide exploration cut backs being announced by just about every reporting company, logic suggests this oil "blip" cannot last very long, maybe another year to 18 months at the most and then I expect a massive upward spike as shortages will eventually kick in.

Back to SEPL. This stock may well get tarred with the same brush as other oilers, but it has prolific long life reserves. When it re-rates, I expect it will quickly, which takes us back to that magic "when" again, I suppose!

[riggerbeautz] 24/8/2015 20:58

Hi Duke.The question is when though? In a full on bear, everything just goes one way, regardless of quality. Some of this could be forced positions too.

Agree with the logic though, but this is being judged as an oiler and treated the same as others.

[dukedosh] 24/8/2015 19:27

Nice find WhiskeyInTheJar, this news is indeed a big deal for us and would have been marked up sharply on a more normal day in the markets.

I had a couple of stink bids filled today. Never thought I would see this fall into the 70's. However, we seem to be on a sound footing here, better than most I would say, so I expect a quick recovery once positive sentiment returns to the sector.

[whiskeyinthejar] 24/8/2015 18:29

Remember Seplat deal to supply gas to Azura power plant from its Oben facility?


SEPLAT to boost power supply with $300m gas plant


"Avuru reaffirms that a ”fifteen-year gas supply contract for power plants will underpin the expansion of Seplat’s domestic gas business."

Anyway, tokay the federal government has finally signed off its backing for the construction of the 450 megawatts (MW) Azura-Edo Independent Power Plant (IPP).

Finally, 450MW Azura IPP Gets FG, World Bank $237m Partial Risk Guarantee


Topic is a bit dry, but I think this is a big deal for Seplat and gas in longer term. 15 year gas contracts are excellent tonic for weak poo imo.

[whiskeyinthejar] 14/8/2015 10:31

Rubbish. Seplat made $34m profit for $53 per barrel oil in H1.
Since Q1, costs have fallen and gas production has doubled.

[fxdealer3] 14/8/2015 10:11

Seplat is unprofitable with oil at this level ....it barely made profit h1 brent $10+ higher ......if oil falls to $20-$30 then alot further downside to approx 30p


Fx

[riggerbeautz] 13/8/2015 17:51

Post 157

"Yes, not really any surprises, results pretty much as expected. Good news about the growing gas revenues, onwards and upwards from here."

Is that reverse psychology, the share price certainly in reverse, oilers are big losers at minute, suppose not as bad as AFR, bet the bond holders must be kicking themselves they didn't deal now.