Seneca Growth Capital Vct Share Discussion Threads

[barryrog] 27/8/2004 23:38

following on from the above,if it is not a done deal and the shares trade normally on tuesday,they could well rise to a level that is higher than the bid discussion value and that would be an impossible situation for the directors to manage.

[barryrog] 27/8/2004 23:31

edmund,
very well spotted.
of course at the initial stages of a potential bid situation you don't advise the shareholders to take no action.you also don't move that quickly to advise the number of shares in issue under rule 2:10.
am i right in assuming that the directors holdings plus Rab exceed 50%?
if i am right,they wouldn't need shareholder approval to proceed.
i think this is a done deal.

[alexiskb1] 27/8/2004 21:58

Consensus Forecasts Year Ending September 2005Turnover (£m)Pretax (£m)Tax Rate (%)Eps (p)Dps (p)Cash Flow (p)Net Asset Value (p)Consensus25.77.604.30.900Standard Deviation0000000Brokers1101100Year Ending September 2004Turnover (£m)Pretax (£m)Tax Rate (%)Eps (p)Dps (p)Cash Flow (p)Net Asset Value (p)Consensus36.14.202.90.600Standard Deviation0000000Brokers1101100 Broker Forecast - Insinger de Beaufort (Recommendation : ) Forecast Date: 29-06-2004Year Ending September 2005Profit Pretax (£m)Tax Rate (£m)Undiluted Eps (p)Dividend (p)Cash Flow/Share (p)Net Asset Value (p)7.604.30.900Year Ending September 2004Profit Pretax (£m)Tax Rate (£m)Undiluted Eps (p)Dividend (p)Cash Flow/Share (p)Net Asset Value (p)4.202.90.600Year Ending September 2003Profit Pretax (£m)Tax Rate (£m)Undiluted Eps (p)Dividend (p)Cash Flow/Share (p)Net Asset Value (p)-1.70-2000 ACCOUNTS     1999 2000 2001 2002 2003turnover£m1.6124.289.9838.70514.849pre tax profit£m0.0891.1671.9261.423-1.738norm earn per sharep0.1071.2942.15-0.214-2.177FRS3 earn per sharep0.0971.2942.0621.362-1.296div per sharep000.5160.5840intangibles£m000-3.9213.616fixed assets, investment properties£m00000fixed assets, other real estate£m00000.161fixed assets, plant£m0.0210.0370.0790.1040.094fixed assets, other£m00000fixed investments, related companies£m0.050.05000fixed investments, other£m0.0010.00100.1380.138stocks£m3.4065.6527.56932.51950.632debtors£m0.1780.782.7870.4310.819cash, securities (short-term assets)£m0.1190.1340.13800cash, securities (liquid)£m0.6230.4442.4821.1310.083creditors, short£m-2.066-4.052-7.062-22.956-45.949creditors, long (borrowing)£m-1.317-1.417-0.738-1.11-1.052creditors, long (1 year's tax)£m00000creditors, long (other long-term payables)£m0000-1.418creditors, long (deferred tax)£m0000-0.03creditors, long (other provisions)£m00000creference shares/minorities - redeemable pref. shares£m000.12500preference shares/minorities - other pref. shares£m00000preference shares/minorities - minority interests£m00000ordinary capital/reserves£m1.0151.6295.2556.3367.094market capitalisation£m0010.7511.01810.009

[edmondj] 27/8/2004 20:56

One thing I find amusing/intriguing is the final sentence in yesterday's announcement: "Shareholders are advised to take no action".

Maybe I am reading too much into this, but I can't recall any situation where this is stated IF the approach is truly "early stage". It only tends to appear when the offer is real.

Otherwise, I find the notion of a board/advisers telling shareholders to "take no action" is preposterous. We are grown up enough to read the situation and make our own judgment about capital allocation. Clearly Honeygrove is on the block and a hedge fund that needs to beef up its performance in the second half is holding 24% or about a third of the fully diluted share capital. I'm not getting carried away with this, just holding firmly, but I wouldn't argue with anyone who sees this share as a quality punt, afresh, on a bid.

Am I over-reacting to this "Shareholders are advised to take no action" matter? If it's not indicative it certainly seems comic!

[barryrog] 27/8/2004 17:18

ukhawk,
only when it reaches the formal stage though

[ukhawk] 27/8/2004 17:14

Think the rule 2:10 announcement has to be made following on from the original takeover talks disclosure. With RAB involved though there's a good chance there will be a deal.

[barryrog] 27/8/2004 16:49

Rule 2:10 announcement just been issued.
looks like a deal is on.

[alexiskb1] 27/8/2004 16:26

has he left? doh, you mean if its taken over. sorry my brain is worn out from my watching PHTM.L pay my rent today!

[ukhawk] 27/8/2004 16:24

Well I'm sure Rivers will be in for another takeover being one of the "ex-Honeygrove" guys.

[alexiskb1] 27/8/2004 16:19

im in... just a small punt im afraid, not having DMOR!

[barryrog] 27/8/2004 16:12

potential bid situation,y/e forecast sept 2004 of £5.4m profit,3.1eps giving a p/e of 3.5! Last chance to get in before the long weekend

[alexiskb1] 27/8/2004 16:08

sorry, i didnt realise it was a takeover - just saw the BB post on top of the pack in the FBB's and recognised the name - and posted straight away, theres no way in hell he will divulge that sort of info to me... so sorry...

[ukhawk] 27/8/2004 16:06

Alexis, you tease !

[alexiskb1] 27/8/2004 16:04

oh bloody hell , just seen RNS. damn ive got no spare cash. Sorry guys, i cant ring up out of the blue... sorry to get you hopes up.. no way would he tell me whats going on... its only future prospects etc that i may be able to get...

[greengiant] 27/8/2004 16:03

ukhawk - still got 200k in GLD. Happy here

gg

[alexiskb1] 27/8/2004 16:00

do i have until next week?

[alexiskb1] 27/8/2004 16:00

any chance of charts- news etc at the top...

let me know if i can do any research on this group! ( legal research! )

[barryrog] 27/8/2004 15:59

hey alex,
get an update on the potential bid situation.
you could make a killing in these shares.

[rbf] 27/8/2004 15:58

Quite a lot of buying over the past couple of hours & no recorded sales....... yet the price remains very static at around 11p.......

ummmmmmmm

[alexiskb1] 27/8/2004 15:56

Honeygrove - boss is married to a mate of mine ...Rivers is his name - ex army officer... might have to study this stock - didnt know they were listed. Just built a massive great place here in tunbridge wells

[ukhawk] 27/8/2004 15:55

Well, I had a few of these tucked away, but bigger top-up today. Didn't really expect to get in at 11p.

GG, we meet again, still in GLD ?

[greengiant] 27/8/2004 15:55

Well worth it IMHO.

gg

[barryrog] 27/8/2004 15:50

greengiant,
topped up this afternoon,couldn't resist 11.05p

[edmondj] 27/8/2004 15:43

That applies to smaller players too, in fact any size housebuilder. Limited space in the UK and worsening planning procedures mean the sector can only get cannibalistic.

[ukhawk] 27/8/2004 15:38

Well there's always two ways to look at it. Growth through aquisition may be the way to go at this stage in the cycle for the bigger boys.