Segro Share Discussion Threads

[aspers] 01/4/2009 13:38

Peel Hunt short on a load more....looking good for 10p by next week!!!

[r0n] 01/4/2009 11:37

The only reason they have come down is due to RI qualifying investors selling they' re holding so they can purchase at 10 pence/ share thus icreasing they're shareholding for an efficient outlay . The share price is gonna shoot back up again as this company have loads of Dosh .

[hooley] 01/4/2009 11:27

76 & 77 There's no reason why they shouldn't fall back to 10p in the next few days - after all, there will be plenty of forced sellers. However, who's been buying all the stock that has come out since the rights issue was launched? My own theory is that the chances of a cheeky bid, at 30p, may appear soon. Those with short positions would be toast. If any real estate company got a bid, the current huge discounts to assets value in the sector would narrow sharply. Segro has a NAV of over 40p, indicating a 60% plus discount. At the top of the market 2 years ago they were standing at a premium to NAV.

[aspers] 01/4/2009 11:08

OK now done some research, I see the RI shares come to market on 7th April, I can only guess by then we should see a fall towards 10p or am I dreaming.....going to sell now and await the outcome of the next few days!!

[aspers] 01/4/2009 10:42

there is some talk that these will fall towards 10p by the 5th April....why is that???

[hooley] 01/4/2009 10:38

74 You can sell the old - now xd - from today and you will get the divi paid early May.

[aspers] 01/4/2009 09:44

very confused here today....normal for me I guess.....I bought at 23p, today I should ensure my divi of 5.4p, so therefore should I sell today in the hope these fall towards 10p on the 5th April or would it be better just to continue to hold??????

[hooley] 01/4/2009 09:29

68 Paydate for new 6th April. MMs making forced sellers pay?

[aspers] 01/4/2009 09:28

Hooley...thanks for that but you quote old and new....these are the old and I guess SGRN the new, what is the differance, these shares SGRO are still good I guess????....sorry for being a pleb but somewhat confussed!!! Am I still OK to hold these or should I be selling???

[hooley] 01/4/2009 09:21

69 & 70 With the new at 5.4p the old should now be 15.3p - new free of stamp. I guess the mm's don't want any more new - which explains the discount? The old are ex the dividend of 5.4p today. You held the old yesterday and the divi's yours. You sell from now on xd and will be paid the divi on 9th May.

[jchen] 01/4/2009 08:44

if sell today, still get divi? or have to wait till friday? anybody advice?

[aspers] 01/4/2009 08:35

Bought these a few days back at 23p.....I understand the divi is 5.4p so why the fall to 16p this morning....have I lost out on some rights issue by buying only a few days before ex div day???

[skyship] 01/4/2009 08:21

Hooley - assuming an 8% asset fall in Q1'09, that would knock c.£360m off the net worth, ie c.6.5p from 44p = 37.5p. Still well North of the KBC figure of 32p. For the moment I'm prepared to accept that 32p as the post rts 31st Mar'09 figure; and did so when I topped-up my nil paid rts yesterday.

Hard to explain the continuing price discrepancy of 12.5p when there is only a 10p call?

May join you Hooley and further accumulate today!

[matthewa] 31/3/2009 17:14

I wouldnt want to have to pay 5.4p out for divi ouch! Hence shorters closing in the auction spike.

[hooley] 31/3/2009 14:59

65 The shorters are lurking, so after today the old go 5.4p xd. No reason why the old and new should not be the same price bar the absence of stamp on the new. Given the present price for the old of 22.5p, it should open at 16.9p. Until the pay date of 6th April is reached, the selling will continue in the new. At 14p fully paid the shares look statistically cheap. A prospective dividend yield of about 10%, assuming a 1.4p payout, and at a discount of 68% to an estimated NAV of 44p looks tempting. As I said earlier - see 64 - there's nothing in the price for a bid. The shorters will need to buy back later and have helped create a worthwhile buying opportunity on a year's view. The heavy selling by the original holders, unable to take up their rights, should cease from the first day of dealing on 7th April. In the meantime, I intend to accumulate.

[robizm] 31/3/2009 12:41

I think the ords will drop more than the divi amount on Wednesday. A lot a people dont have funds to take up rights so selling nil paid and shorts flying in from every where, this may go lower in short term.

[hooley] 31/3/2009 10:48

61 The net worth at 31/12/08 was £2bn. The rights has raised £0.5bn of new equity. There are 5.68bn shares, including 5.24bn new. The division sum means 44p a share pro forma. With about £2bn net borrowings, the 77% ratio disclosed in the rights document checks out.

[skyship] 31/3/2009 09:48

I must say, I still don't understand the massive discrepancy between the ords and the new. The ords are 22.5p, strip out the 5.4p divi and the XD price s/b 17.1p; yet the new stand at 4.5p + a 10p call = 14.5p!

It makes sense to sell the ords & buy the new nil paid as a straight arbitrage operation; which may be why we are seeing short disclosures. There would seem to be little sense in shorting SGRO generally as the covenant renegotiation + the Rts makes SGRO's survival almost guaranteed. As they themselves state, their new covenants can withstand a further 30% fall in property values!

At the moment I've only bt a 2.1% allocation in my SIPP; but am likely to at least double that once I've got my head around the true rts-adjusted NAV.

The rts statement revealed a further 3% asset fall in Jan'09; and Feb/Mar will certainly have taken another 3%-5% off that figure. But there is now very strong evidence of buyers returning, so the asset falls may well have stabilised at last.

[r0n] 31/3/2009 09:46

What does NAV mean ? anyone.

[skyship] 31/3/2009 09:28

Can anyone point me to an authoritative post-rights NAV position. As I posted yesterday, KBC Peel Hunt's estimate is reported by the IC as 32p. Where does this 44p come from?

[hooley] 31/3/2009 09:24

Who's been buying all the new which have been sold since the first day of dealing? Now that the £500m of equity finance is in place and the loan covenant level has been raised to 160%, it's time for a bid. NAV is about 44p a share, so a cheeky 30p offer might succeed. My guess is the Chinese might have a go - they've got too many US dollars. If not Segro, then Land Secs or British Land. A bid in the sector would set it alight.

[skyship] 30/3/2009 16:19

Potential buyers should either buy the new now & pay the 10p call; or alternatively buy the new fully paid. In both cases you save the iniquitous stamp duty.

[robcoo] 30/3/2009 13:08

Has anyone seen any analysts' comments on whether or not to take up the rights?

[skyship] 30/3/2009 10:46

According to the IC: KBC Peel Hunt f/c ex-rts NAV of 32p & a divi of 1.4p.

So buy the SGRN @ 4.15p, pay the 10p call and you're in at 14.15p for a 10% yield and an admittedly highly geared NAV-discount of 56%.

Seems value to me!

[typo56] 30/3/2009 07:52

I think that the rights issue backlog might be a more significant effect than the dividend.