Secure Trust Bank Share Discussion Threads

[1tx] 21/5/2024 22:47

STB advised in January that a small number of motor finance agreements (circa 5% to 7%) between 2014 to 2017 contained a discretionary commission arrangement.It should also be noted that motor finance is a fairly small part of STBs business.

[p1nkfish] 21/5/2024 12:32

Look over some previous posts. Nothing burger for STB.

[davebowler] 21/5/2024 12:16

Can't see any from Martin Lewis site -

Breakdown of biggest lenders complained to via MoneySavingExpert's car finance tool
Lender (and the manufacturers they work with) Proportion of complaints
Black Horse (includes Jaguar, Land Rover and Suzuki) 16.1%
Volkswagen Financial Services (includes Audi, Seat and Skoda) 14.1%
Stellantis Financial Services (includes Citroen, Fiat, Peugeot and Vauxhall)

8.4%
Santander (includes Hyundai, Kia and Volvo) 8.2%
BMW Financial Services (includes Mini) 7.4%
MotoNovo 6.8%
Mobilize (includes Renault, Nissan and Dacia) 4.3%
Ford Credit Europe
4.3%
Mercedes Benz Financial Services 3.6%
Barclays Partner Finance 3.1%
Alphera 3.1%
Toyota Financial Services (includes Lexus) 2.5%
Close Brothers 2.4%
Northridge 2.4%
Blue Motor Finance 1.1%

[davebowler] 21/5/2024 12:03

Is the vehicle Finance arm affected by the recent adverts in the press to do with mis-sold car finance??

[34adsaddsa] 20/5/2024 16:08

Hold until £10. We'll reassess there. If you're selling below 44% of book value you're a fool.

[p1nkfish] 20/5/2024 13:09

Very likely rate cut start in Summer. The longer they leave it the more of a cut ultimately needed.

Possibly at least 2 x 0.25% this year, maybe 3 x 0.25%.

"Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent said interest rates could be cut this summer"

[p1nkfish] 19/5/2024 08:21

I think this is correct and MPC is behind the curve and rates will have to reduce. Why does it matter? It matters as it can help STB and being too far behind the curve will not help the economy as inflation comes towards target.

Put more simply, the bottom in STB is very likely behind us.

[34adsaddsa] 17/5/2024 18:36

Berenberg reiterated their buy recommendation today with a price target of £14.20.

[34adsaddsa] 17/5/2024 18:02

I very much doubt it given the CEO's recent £80K purchase, he couldn't have done that if he knew of any M&A approaches.

It's just too cheap given the current and expected macro conditions.

I do think it makes a good takeover target. Perhaps Pollen Street's new private equity funds could go for it, or it could slot into a larger lender.

[cfro] 17/5/2024 17:49

The nature and quickness of the last couple of days price action makes you think that someone is running their rule over this but not heard any bid chatter..

[34adsaddsa] 17/5/2024 17:28

This belongs at £10.

[p1nkfish] 17/5/2024 16:44

Have no idea but about time. I dont quite get all the negativity here as being paid ok to wait and they are doing all the right things imho.

[shepc] 17/5/2024 16:25

Bit of a jump? Big order need filling or what

[p1nkfish] 16/5/2024 07:41

If it continues as is, and rates turn down, it's not unrealistic to imsgine this doubling towards £14 with a few staging posts on the way.

By when? Possibly by end 2025.
Just my guesstimate, dyor etc.
I'm often wrong.

[p1nkfish] 16/5/2024 07:20

Steady as she goes TU, as good as could be expected and still progressing towards the £4Bn loan book. Progress on cost savings mentioned too.

[34adsaddsa] 07/5/2024 16:28

CEO & wife just bought over £80K.

[p1nkfish] 23/4/2024 11:58

Swiss CB cut rates mid March, UK will likely do also.
Post 803.
See what the outcome is.

[p1nkfish] 18/4/2024 16:55

Options news release. Know the incentive, predict the outcome?

[p1nkfish] 09/4/2024 17:04

End of tax loss selling for 2023 and potential of interest rate cuts unless oil upsets the apple cart?

[mwj1959] 09/4/2024 16:40

Albeit nothing obvious acting as a driver, but positive nonetheless!

[deanowls] 09/4/2024 14:18

Nice to see some positive movements for once.

[p1nkfish] 22/3/2024 12:52

No way to ever know. Look at potential upside in 3 years vs potential downside.
Look at catalysts. What happens if interest rates fall? Bankruptcy rate is not going down anytime soon - is that already in the price? Is all the bad stuff already in the price?

Now - Swiss CB dropped rates this week. Why? One explanation is they see rates coming down over the next 9 - 12 months EVERYWHERE and don't want the Swiss Franc to get out of line by rising so are getting in early. Another reason might be gold backing of their currency - who knows. Nevertheless, they dropped rates.

No one knows or can know. But for 20% downside there might be 100% upside - TBD.

Good luck, dyor, etc.

I expect a period of consolidation, some selling after x-divi date and some selling pressure to abate after end of the tax year. A period that will ring out sellers so upside resistance will reduce. Patience needed.

Wrote some of my own ropey code and it's telling me this, strange but true, hasn't yet broken a potential uptrend to the downside on the weeklies. I am going with that (it has worked elsewhere in the past for decent returns) but may have to wait a fair while to see any price appreciation.

[petersinthemarket] 22/3/2024 12:16

Due to the hefty share price fall in the last few weeks,
I sold half.
Is this the bottom yet.
And should I be buying it back.
Just pondering.
pete

[34adsaddsa] 22/3/2024 10:12

At their capital markets day they said:

"Rachel Lawrence, Chief Financial Officer, will provide an update on the Group's medium term targets and the pathway to achieving a 14%-16% return on average equity. Two refinements are made to the existing medium term targets:-

Loan book growth. Having grown net lending by 45% since the end of 2020 the Group has an ambition to deliver a £4bn loan book. The Group is removing its current target to grow lending at 15%+ CAGR as it considers a £4bn loan book to be a more specific KPI towards achieving the Group's overall medium term targets. The Group had spot lending balances of £3.2bn at the end of Q3 2023.

Cost income ratio. Scaling to £4bn of lending and continued progress on disciplined cost management will allow the Group to deliver a cost income ratio (CIR) of 44-46%. The Group's previous target had been for the CIR to be less than 50%. In addition, Project Fusion, the Group's previously announced cost optimisation programme, is now expected to deliver £5m of annualised savings by the end of 2024."

If they're right about the benefits of getting to a £4 Billion loan book then it makes sense to get there. However, it doesn't make sense to grow lending if you're trading at 0.35x book value.

Once they get to £4 Billion they should start repurchasing lots of shares.