Secure Income Reit Share Discussion Threads

[jimbo3352] 11/6/2020 11:48

Questor in today's Telegraph recommends as a hold saying share price fall looks overdone

[nickrl] 07/6/2020 22:16

Adae, sneaky - they cover all the bases!!

[adae] 07/6/2020 09:07

Brilliant - Sunday Times reporting that Travelodge are encouraging non-refunded customers to vote on the CVA, on the grounds that they're creditors and therefore get a vote.

I really hope Travelodge go t*ts up.

[bondholder] 06/6/2020 19:24

TVL Finance plc GBP440,000,000 Senior Secured Floating Rate Notes due 2025ISIN: Regulation S: XS2021472084Rule 144A: XS2021486035Does anyone know the current price of these?Given that the existing Goldman Sachs etc bonds and equity are subordinate to these it's not surprising that the senior noteholders are not being asked to share the pain despite the fact that they would suffer a large shortfall if the company fails. 

[belgraviaboy] 06/6/2020 17:38

Bloomberg article:

[bondholder] 05/6/2020 07:36

There are a number of problems with the proposal. 1. TL will be over 540 million in debt. There is nothing stopping them doing another CVA in 2022.2. The confirmed new cash from the private equity owners is ten million. Contrast this with the 140m that landlords are being asked for. Yet Goldman Sachs etc are retaining 100% of the company.3. The secured noteholders are owed 440 million. If the company fails they are unlikely to recover more than a fraction of that yet they are not contributing.The equity holders need to put up more cash or accept a debt for equity swap with the secured noteholders.

[adae] 05/6/2020 06:56

Travelodge news was indeed dire - hence the fall from a post-bounce high of £3.50, down to about £2.30 (directors bought at £2.50). Latest Travelodge news isn't nearly as bad, with many options now open to SIR. Either marshal resistance to the CVA, or go along with it and accept the lower rent, or go along with it, accept the lower rent, but give Travelodge notice on all the sites where an alternative occupier - Premier Inn, Travelodge 2.0 - want to go in at the same or better rent.

CVA seems to be showing up how weak Travelodge's position actually is.

If anything, SIR's bigger concern should be the likes of Alton Towers, and when on earth they get to reopen. Summer season as good as lost already.

[darrenp746] 05/6/2020 01:06

Can’t understand why this was so positive today when the news re Travelodge looks so dire.

[rambutan2] 04/6/2020 21:22

winsome, what goes around comes around...

[bondholder] 04/6/2020 17:19

Cost to SIR is approximately 7p a share in lost rent if the proposal goes through as is (assuming no value to the profit share offered by TL)

[adae] 04/6/2020 16:34

Both options may work - go with the CVA, then take back whichever properties the Travelodge 2.0 want.

@nickrl - fair point re Premier Inn, & would likely be competition concerns too.

[winsome] 04/6/2020 16:21

Travelodge Owners Action Group propose taking over all hotels and forming a new budget hotel chain. I'd prefer that option rather than give into this opportunistic CVA.

[nickrl] 04/6/2020 15:16

Adae indeed it seems to be far more reasonable than forecast and given tone of SIR RNS i would say there considering it Also as you say with them having flexibility to take sites back, largely at will, it certainly gives them options rather than risk 120 sites on there hands.

Suspect Premier Inn interests would be limited to areas they have limited exposure and also many of TL sites aren't exactly the best. There could be upside here as staycations may become the only option this year with this mandatory quarantine putting people off booking an leaving airlines have no choice but keep fleets grounded.

Assuming Merlin continue paying rent they can get by but can't see how they can support a divi for 12-18mths.

[adae] 04/6/2020 13:39

Thanks, had missed that. There's a key point in there for me:

"Landlord break clauses would be inserted into leases representing 88.4% of the rent, 94% of which would be operable for five months after the date of the CVA"

ie they do the CVA, SIR phone up Premier Inn and say "Which sites do you want", and give Travelodge the boot from those particular ones.

Have seen it once before on a retail CVA - was most satisfying. Doesn't generally work with High St retail - who'd want to take it, at those rents - but just might work great on Travelodge.

I've gone from very anti the CVA to thinking it could yet play to our advantage. At the least, there's the downside set out.

[jimbo3352] 04/6/2020 13:32

Nice clear RNS re the impact on rents of Travelodge CVA. Downside appears to be limited to £23.4 offset by extension of the lease durations versus a drop in SIR's market cap of around £150m. Or am I missing some dastardly plan by Goldman et al? The market reaction does seem a tad overdone.

[bondholder] 03/6/2020 11:35

How long before Whitbread make an offer to take over the leases?

[adae] 03/6/2020 10:05

19th June for the Travelodge vote - good article here:

[bondholder] 01/6/2020 12:42

Not sure how Travelodge can walk away. They have to pay interest on half a billion in secured senior debt at 6/7 % pa. Loss of 2/300 hotels would make it impossible. Expect an improved offer from them soon.

[adae] 01/6/2020 12:11

Thanks; Travelodge may think they've bargaining power and can walk away - safe to say Alton Towers doesn't have an alternative site :-)

[bondholder] 01/6/2020 11:49

Merlin have just raised 500 million bond so no problem paying rent for 18 months

[adae] 01/6/2020 11:33

Corpse twitching with things reopening, but how long before eg Alton Towers - and how will Merlin cope with potentially an entire missed season.

Travelodge all gone quiet? They can run but they can't hide - really hope govn't doesn't extend the ban on winding up petitions.

[dcurry1] 23/5/2020 07:48

Think you could be spot on there mate, I recently got a 100 Whitbread shares, and thinking about buying much more

[bondholder] 22/5/2020 11:28

 The Rights Issue to raise GBP980 million (net of expenses) is designed to provide the balance sheet strength necessary to support continued investment in Whitbread's strategy whilst its budget-branded and independent competitors are expected to be weakened by the COVID-19 pandemic. I wonder if Whitbread would be interested in adding 500 hotels with minimal outlay and effectively eliminating Travelodge at the same time ?

[bondholder] 19/5/2020 13:51

Thanks for the details.If the Travelodge management/PE owners overplay their hand things could work out badly for the secured lenders. A brand without hotels is not going to service half a billion pounds in debt. In addition TL have big expansion plans. Shafting your premises capital providers is not going to help future funding costs. There is a strong incentive to get most owners onboard a consenting deal rather than a cram down.