Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[quepassa] 22/1/2016 18:55

I mostly find myself nodding off after 20 seconds when a fund manager gives an interview.

This however is riveting.

James Anderson in full flow on YouTube uploaded November from a MoneyWeek interview earlier in 2015.:-





ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[hazl] 22/1/2016 14:26

Hardly going to be much different to yesterday's I would have thought?....NAV

IMO

[quepassa] 22/1/2016 11:13

Yes, some of the majors like Shell, Exxon and Total look enticing at these levels.

Good point.

I doubt whether that is what ScoMo will put into their portfolio but for income-seekers some of the oilies look attractive- although the question of massive oversupply remains a great challenge.

Good point. Agree.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[walter walcarpets] 22/1/2016 10:33

QP: might not be a bad idea to add a few oilies in the next few weeks tho

[quepassa] 22/1/2016 10:14

Another fascinating interview with ScoMo's James Anderson. Dated 7th. Jan in What Investment.





I went through the full portfolio holdings of SMT as at October '15 and from what I could see, they didn't have a single oil-related or natural resources-related stock in the whole portfolio. Not a single one. A brilliant call in light of what has happened.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[hazl] 22/1/2016 09:16

Well I got my token holding yesterday and its doing quite well already!

[quepassa] 21/1/2016 12:31

Today's NAV announcement produced a smaller reduction in NAV than I had guessed.

A reduction of a mere 4p taking NAV from 251p to 247p.


Yesterday's singular 16p discount to NAV has rapidly eroded to circa just 5p.


Amazon was robust yesterday with just a 0.5% fall. Illumina even went up.

Sterling's great weakness against the $ ( brexit worries/delay of rate raises) also feeds happily through to sterling ScoMo valuations with a major NA exposure.


The dignitaries at Davos really don't sound very worried at all. Christine LaGarde pointed out that China might not be going gangbusters any more at 15%pa but that 5/6/7%pa. was still pretty damned good

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[hazl] 21/1/2016 10:13

Agree timing is the most important yet most difficult factor.

I find that my research is sometimes wasted either because I am not in the right place at the right time or even because different stocks take precedence and I miss the boat.
What I sometimes do is take a token holding in something so that when the time is right I can build from there.
Sometimes it works,sometimes it doesn't!
I will say though that Amazon is very compelling.
I vowed I would never use them some years back and yet now they are first port of call.
What safe alternative is there?
Well done Que passa for being early!

[mad foetus] 21/1/2016 09:25

I'm seriously thinking of buying in here, its all down to timing.
On 14 May 2008, the share price of SMT was 142p - 6 months later, on 26 November, it hit 52p. There are 2 conclusions to be made from that: firstly, if the market gets really jittery SMT gets pounded. Secondly, if you can time your purchase right, you can make a fortune.
I don't know whether James Anderson's view of the future is correct, but it is certainly different, his track record is great, and it makes SMT a useful diversifier from other investments, which, if JA is correct, may be in for a torrid time. If we go through a period where the baby is thrown out with the bathwater, and things are market down indiscriminately, an unbelievable opportunity could open up here. Whether that happens may depend not on fundamentals, but on how many people, particularly in the US and China, are forced to close out positions. Exciting times!

[quepassa] 20/1/2016 16:19

fully agree.

qp.

[mad foetus] 20/1/2016 15:37

yes, but the markets look very sickly indeed and it wouldn't take much for capitulation to occur. I am sure SMT will bounce back, the question is simply one of trying to time an entry purchase.

[quepassa] 20/1/2016 14:01

My one observation is that their Net Asset Value announcement this morning was at 251p per share.

At 1.45pm today the share price is 235p.

That is a massive 16p discount to NAV being almost 6.5%.

As recently as December the share price was at a Premium to NAV of a couple of percent.

Because of the global sell-off today, the NAV tomorrow may perhaps be a guesstimate of 3% lower which would mean a reduction in NAV from today's 251p to 244p.

It does still seem an unusually large discount to NAV by recent historical standards.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[mad foetus] 20/1/2016 13:39

I am getting close to making an investment here. This looks a good entry point but SMT will always magnify movements in the wider market and so I'm waiting to see signs of stability, but I increasingly think SMT may be the place to be for the next 10-15 years.

[dr jekyll] 20/1/2016 10:01

Thanks for those two links QuePassa. Very helpful.

[quepassa] 19/1/2016 14:30

And:-



ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 19/1/2016 14:25

'We are looking to generate extreme investment return.'

Why ScoMo is different from the rest of the pack.

Important reading for ScoMo followers.Three days ago




ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[mad foetus] 18/1/2016 13:49

quepassa,
Part of me fundamentally disagrees with you. Part of me is persuaded. ScoMo's track record cannot be ignored because "it doesn't work in theory". Thanks for your posts, they are thought provoking.

[shavian] 04/1/2016 19:05

China panic overdone imho.

[quepassa] 28/12/2015 21:48

Yes. Good post.

But surely the point is that there is not just one type of investor.

there are many different types of investor . And indeed many different investment strategies.

Over just 12 months, an investment in Amazon has gone up more than 100% against a flat market. That's fantastic performance.

Over 3 years, by 200%

Over 7 years, by 1,200%

Since flotation in 1997 at $1.50 per share by almost 450 times (45,000%) to the current share price of $670.

Personally, I think that is a great way to make money as an investor.

That's one place where I may politely beg to differ in my point of view to yours.

I do think it's the way to make money as an investor.

But each to his own. And horses for courses.

Using classical pe measurements/ratios and traditional dividend metrics do not in my experience sit comfortably alongside new-age tech stocks.

What is quite observable, is that a company with regular pe ratios and paying a dividend would not have achieved this type of growth over the last few years.

Of course, not all tech stock achieve this and many fall by the wayside. But the ones which become dominant in their chosen sectors display massive outperformance and give huge investor returns.

Let's hope that ScoMo keep on picking the right ones.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 28/12/2015 20:56

Yes, I don't think its the way to make money as an investor and Scottish Mortgage will get hid very hard in a bear market. That being said, I do think Amazon are a great company and might read the book you suggest at some point. Thanks.

[quepassa] 28/12/2015 09:38

yup. we had that discussion before. you are right. I don't disagree.

but like many of the pre-eminent tech giants Amazon invest so heavily that practically all income/profit is reinvested back into the company. many believe that's a great way to run a business rather than paying out dividends and producing a massive profit which is taxable.

they keep on building the business. and introducing new services which have shown themselves as world-beating already.

but the tipping point inevitably comes when the income has grown to such humongous proportions, that the dividend flood-gates open.

if you want regular p/e ratios and dividends, Amazon - as with most tech companies - is not for you.

This is a company which has gone from a start-up selling books online twenty years ago in 1995 to by far the most pervasive, dominant and ubiquitous on-line retailer in the world. That is before you start looking in awe at the staggering growth and take-up rate of their various recent cloud services.

I can highly recommend the Jeff Bezoz biography and Amazon story called, The Everything Store.

but you are absolutely right, zero-dividend / stratospheric pe tech stocks are not to everybody's liking. Good point. Well made.

ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 28/12/2015 09:07

They are indeed. Pity they don't make much of a profit or pay a dividend along with having a P/E that is in the stratosphere!

[quepassa] 28/12/2015 08:21

Can Amazon double this year?

Their Christmas sales are off the graph and truly astonishing. The take-up of Amazon Prime, devices and shopping services are extraordinary.

read the 28th. RNS.



ALL IMO> DYOR.
QP

[quepassa] 24/12/2015 09:53

Sounds like ScoMo isn't for you. Maybe you are right.

Some tech giants do hang around however, don't they?

Like Microsoft and Google.

For most of its young life, Microsoft didn't pay a dividend.

I guess we are hoping that ScoMo are spotting the right ones.

Personally, cannot think of a contender to Amazon. Nor Tessla. Nor Alibaba.


Can you?

All I know is that ScoMo are doing a good job at the moment.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[topvest] 24/12/2015 09:20

Amazon is a truly great company, that there is no doubt. However, it doesn't pay a dividend and doesn't make good profits so what is the point for investors, other than riding a speculative bubble...it's share price will crash at some point as will a lot of the ridiculously priced US tech giants that are here today, gone tomorrow. At that point (whenever it comes) Scottish Mortgage will get hammered.