Scottish Mortgage Invest... Share Discussion Threads

[caradog] 22/5/2019 08:16

You may be right, QP, but Anderson can hardly be blamed for not knowing what Trump will do next, when not even Trump knows.

[quepassa] 21/5/2019 15:02

Normally enjoy and have high regard for Anderson and his writings.

However, his recent expansive May musings in Resolute Optimism are not of his usual calibre in my view and are somewhat wordy and boring. Using revered Benjamin Graham as a yardstick by which to measure modern day tech companies is bizarre to say the least, if not entirely misjudged.

In terms of ScoMo, the Trust is at a particularly difficult juncture in my view. Not only has Tesla taken a beating (and will continue to do so) but the Trump-China trade tariff tiffs are taking a very heavy toll on all Chinese Tech stocks.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[verydereky] 18/5/2019 10:39

Coming back nicely.

[2torrance] 16/5/2019 12:29

QuePasa I am not sure what this has to do with SMT but you seem to be peculiarly oblivious to just how unpopular the snake oil salesman is. Farage has a LOWER popularity rating than May herself at minus 56 with only a 24% like. Some hope of being PM on those figures! Of course he will do well in the European elections as he did before but even here the last poll had Labour neck and neck

On a far more appropriate theme, glad to see SMT riding high on the back of their results.

[quepassa] 11/5/2019 12:13

which ever way you happen to vote, if you are genuinely interested in UK politics, you'd better take note of this juggernaut fast building speed.

Remember, Farage is the one who spear-headed the Leave Campaign. And won.

His nascent Brexit Party is highly likely to trounce both the blues and the reds in the upcoming European elections by a county mile.

And for what it's worth, the bookies are already narrowing the odds from 25-1 to 20-1 for Farage to be next Prime Minister.


May and Corbyn are understandably both deeply unpopular. These unprecedented political conditions make it absolutely ripe for a new party and a new leader to emerge.

That's the real story in politics today. As yet, not fully appreciated by the press and the media. But it will be. Very soon.

all imo. dyor.
qp

[pvb] 11/5/2019 11:47

Not to be missed.

We'll be the judge of that!

[quepassa] 13/4/2019 17:09

Best political item this whole week.

Nigel Farage's speech in his first rally today staged in Birmingham for his new Brexit Party.

Not to be missed.

you'll find the Birmingham rally speech here:-

hXXps://thebrexitparty.org/

[lollipop1] 06/3/2019 12:02

Does anybody know how the Bristol forum went?

[quepassa] 05/3/2019 18:52

Ctrip on fire today at +22%

[shiv1986] 26/2/2019 09:33

See the latest ADVFN twitter poll about Funds:

[quepassa] 22/2/2019 08:04

Premium currently too high.

[topvest] 11/1/2019 21:10

QuePassa - an isolated example of an investment trust that warns their shareholders not to BUY their shares is Lindsell Train Investment Trust plc, but agree that is a very rare situation.
Personally, I think Investment Management is a great business, that's if you own the investment management business or are very selective.
There are too many closet trackers like BlackRock, JPMorgan etc. etc. Its unbelievable how short their holding periods are. Most investment managers should be on a portfolio turnover of less than 10% per annum (I'm at 5%), but most just endlessly trade the FTSE-250 and under-perform accordingly.
BG are clearly one of the best GROWTH investors, albeit I do think the time is right for their strategy to perform very badly. It is not different this time. Value has lost for 10 years and will win again sometime soon. FANGs going into bear market territory is the start.
Just my view.

[pockstones] 08/1/2019 17:50

Hmm a number of investment trusts have delivered compound growth over 25 years in excess of 11% per annum eg Worldwide Healthcare, Herald etc Scottish Mortgage is in that bracket but starting to sag due to size and the bombast of the current manager who in his desire to accumulate assets has run out of road. Too much capital dents your return inevitably that is why SMG is a duff longer term investment that should be on a discount to nav ten years ago not the case but it was smaller then and therefore more manageable.

[quepassa] 08/1/2019 16:24

Disagree. And I don't miss any point.

Can't predict small swings but the recent big rout was well telegraphed with many squalls, red flags and warning signals along the way before it happened.

I think ScoMo is great and have nothing but admiration for them.

I am talking in general and not about ScoMo.

Whilst I respect your opinion we will probably agree to disagree on this point.

I stand by statement that the Investment Management industry is fundamentally flawed.

Fund managers will get up on endless podiums and make strident presentations why their fund is excellent and why it is a great time to invest in the fund but it is clearly a flawed system when the same fund manager would never dream of telling an investor that it is a good time to sell his fund.

Making ONE-WAY investment recommendations in the unitised fund management / investment industry has to be highly questionable in my view.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[2torrance] 08/1/2019 12:40

QuePasa you write "If anyone thinks it can go down by a third, why on earth would they say to investors hang on in there, rather than sell now and buy back when it's cheaper."
I think you miss the point. In the short term not even the most genius fund manager could possibly say anything beyond a probability. And of course SMT did not announce the price would go down imminently by a third! That would be crazy. In fact the comment was made long ago and the shares if anything rose markedly for a long time. The observation, if I recall it correctly, was only that over the next few years it was not outside the bounds of possibility for a pull back as big as this, but nobody could ever know when. Not even you QuePasa! But congratulations on your acuity in selling when you did, yes with skill that can work but it can go the other way too.

Right now will stocks surge as a China deal is reached. Brexit stalls, and the US shut down ends? Or will it be trade war, No deal and further Trumpery plus another leg down? Hard to say I would say.

[quepassa] 08/1/2019 11:58

Yes and no. I agree that it is difficult to time small swings in the market but the occasional obvious financial tornado gathers which is easier to spot with multiple factors coalescing like the rout just now.

You miss the point. Think about what you have written. If anyone thinks it can go down by a third, why on earth would they say to investors hang on in there, rather than sell now and buy back when it's cheaper.

Every fund manager will always tell that in the long run, it will be alright.

In terms of doing their job properly, it appears to me that fund managers are meant to be trusted guardians of people's wealth and in my view it should be incumbent on them and the industry to be honest and tell investors if they think the fund will go down because of market-driven factors beyond their control.

Are you telling me that none of the undoubtedly clever chaps at the highly regarded good house of Baillie Gifford didn't have any inkling whatsoever of the recent Faang crash. That they had absolutely no idea, no clue or hunch that the tech market was headed for a big fall. I don't think so.

Fund managers will buy and sell shares, move in and out, reposition their portfolios but they will never tell their investors that they think the market is heading for a fall due to market driven factors beyond their control, even if they think there is a strong likelihood of that happening.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[2torrance] 08/1/2019 11:06

QuePassa Agree with most of what you say,especially about identifying SMT too readily with tech in general. SMT picks shares extremely carefully and not all of them qualify as tech in the hard sense. However i have two qualifications. 1. I am not sure it is worth trying to time the market when it comes to a big investment trust.Not if you have a really large holding. With a single share you can take a view about its balance sheet and prospects but with a massive trust, is there much point? All you are doing is trying to guess massive downturns and at some point (short of calamity) these will be reversed.
2. And as regards your last point, why the heck should a fund manager recommend the selling of their trust? This is like asking he or she to admit they are unable to do their job properly. Nick Train has been known to complain about his premium but any fund manager should believe in their own expertise and and would not be worth their salt if they did not. In fact SMT have come close to shunning all pretence that their share will always climb. How could it and why should it? Unlike other managers we have heard SMT mangement accept their price may go down, I think Anderson even said it could go down by a third at certain points in the cycle, but he adds if you hold you will be rewarded. This is emphatically not true of an individual share where holding may make no sense at all.

[quepassa] 08/1/2019 05:29

And all Faangs are not the same.

As in any market rout, the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater.

No-one will convince me, for example, that Amazon which fell 25% in the rout, won't recover somewhat rapidly and continue further to conquer the world.

Equally, my view is that Alibaba is also set for a major rebound when the China-USA trade talks make further progress - as they undoubtedly must.

ScoMo is very solid and in many ways inspirational. But timing remains key. Do your own research. Don't be afraid to sell and buy back later or re-invest elsewhere.

And NEVER FORGET that the Fund Management industry is basically corrupt and fundamentally flawed.

It's an industry supposedly full of investment guru professionals who know all about stocks and markets but have you ever heard any fund manager of any fund ever say that now was a good time to sell his fund?


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[actybod] 07/1/2019 22:44

Nice range between 440 to 480 found.

[pockstones] 07/1/2019 20:05

However this is a very large investment trust trading at a large premium to nav invested in both large private technology and large public technology stocks at a time when their monopolies are starting to be challenged by regulators globally.
as global yields rise The growth premium rating is diminishing eg ASOS last week. Owning SMG at this point seems a bit hopeful Quepassa sold around 540 only a few weeks ago if memory serves me correctly. As market liquidity shrinks company ratings normalise dividends return to focus.
Smell the coffee

[topvest] 07/1/2019 18:14

Agreed that I sold too early. No sour grapes. I have 4 folded which is a good performance, but could have been much better. I will ride the wave a bit better next time hopefully. All the FANGS are in bear territory and this will move over into other obscenely valued technology stocks. Scottish Mortgage also do have a successful strategy. Read Mark Minervini and others though - they have the cycle spot on. The cycle has peaked and into decline. Every rally now is another chance to exit, before capitulation sets in. Only my view.

[quepassa] 07/1/2019 12:07

good post torrance.

i shall desist from impolitely describing this as the stupidity of investors.

qp