Schroder Uk Public Private Share Discussion Threads

[pete_bane] 05/8/2020 12:40

I bet johnwig (the one with an aitch obviously not the other one) is a fantastic lawyer. I love the way he made winnie and specto tell blatant recognisable lies in order to escape his forensic grilling. I'd hate to be done over by him as the psycho and specto clowns were today.

[johnwig] 05/8/2020 10:55

"Psychochomper". A long and windy expostulation just to avoid answering truthteller's very cogent question to you . How DID you come by those Oxford Nanopore shares? Or, were you just fibbing again?

And your mate spectoacc is even a bigger liar about SUPP's trading price! Just look at the chart above!

You trolls are on the run, and you know it !

LOL LOL LOL

[psychochomper] 05/8/2020 09:50

I have a theory that anyone - actually, I mean everyone - who is supportive of SUPP (is that how it came by its name, because the four words SUPP is supposed to stand for are quite an absurdity?) has no idea at all that they are being suspended in a vortex of facts and figures well beyond their ken. They have all - in a very correlated way (well, how else?) - become increasingly dizzy. Well, I would, too - I grant you that. Except I never believed in the science as I could never work out why an investment in IH should not, based upon that alone, disqualify belief in absolutely everything else. (everything else within and perhaps even outwith WPCT/SUPP, such is the extent of the idiocy)

One would not normally invest in this way, but blind faith in either the previous manager or just the romance of science (the science behind palettes is a stretch, mind - even pretending IH was placed in the portfolio by some former rogue trader whilst NW's back was turned, or he was busy buying a new horse or two) does indeed suggest something akin to dizziness played a material part.

And I'm not just talking about the hapless investors, but every other institution riding the money coattails. Collusion or suspended inquiry - only a proper inquiry could establish the truth. The FCA will once again be renamed before that ever sees the light of day.

But I do recall some analysis of some posters here regarding valuation - and it seems they were not affected by the vortex. So I fail to see the criticism posted by Johnwig (with the extra "h") relating to this. Simply go back and reread the posts of some weeks and months back. You (O, Johnwig) complain there are too many of them, so finding them should not be too troublesome, should it?

But then I begin to worry about my own inability to find your own price justification. If "0-20p" (not sure about the 0p target - this seems to be an invention of yours - is that the dizziness thing?) are the utterances of a fool, as you imply, please lay out your own insights. I did try and locate them, but all I could find were the expressions of a vortex-dweller.

No matter, unless I am mistaking you for a coward who can give it out, but lacks either the balls or brains to expose his own analysis to review, I am sure you will put that right quickly, so that we may all benefit from a greater insight as to SUPP's true prospects. After all, by the meaning of your very own words, we are not seeing or understanding these prospects as clearly as you believe they deserve. You'd be a true champion, my hero even, if you could oblige.

[scrapheap] 05/8/2020 09:42

A reminder that at last quarter's NAV, Autolus was at $5.98 and valn of $12.5m

Price on 30th June was $16.03 or valn of $33.5m.

It's actually down a bit from there now but results tomorrow..

[truthteller3] 05/8/2020 09:20

I am intrigued by chucko's claim that he "owns" Oxford Nanopore already. Does that mean that he owns it via his shareholding in SUPP? Or did the shareprophets organisation partake in one of the funding rounds. If so, how?

[johnwig] 05/8/2020 09:05

Spectoacc claims he'd "love to see a calculation of SUPP's current NAV being 45p!"

Two points. He's already attempted, several times, to do a detailed valuation of WPCT/SUPP and has made a pitiful bosh of it. He doesn't realise that, for him, it is an impossible task.

Secondly I think those who are holding SUPP would love to see Specto's detailed calculation that justifies his prediction that SUPP is worth "0p".

I fear we shall have a very long wait.

[johnwig] 05/8/2020 07:57

Well, SUPP's shareprice is still some distance from the 0p that was part of your prediction, often made above by all three of you..

God, you guys are so dopey.

[jonwig] 05/8/2020 07:04

Trading in the last three days has been quite heavy, with 'buys' exceeding 'sells' according to ADVFN's algorithm. So either the algo's guesses are wrong or there's a source of (unreported) selling.

Or maybe it's simply accepted that ON will get big sales but not big profits.

[spectoacc] 05/8/2020 06:49

I'd love to see a calculation of SUPP's current NAV being 45p! I've posted plenty above on the RUTH valuation (that isn't all negative, but is c.18% of the trust). But eg Industrial Heat still in at c.£14m? The long tail?

But agree surprised not more uptick on the basis of ON - plenty do still believe Link, despite everything that's happened, despite them currently being sued (Sunday Times had a page on it at the weekend).

[chucko1] 04/8/2020 18:46

I think there is a good chance that Nanopore increases the value of this fund. At long last a tangible and, being Oxford-based, most welcome success for long-suffering WPCT/SUPP investors who have so far had to sustain their dreams on the thin rations of promises, lies and hope. I have recently seen a pretty comprehensive analysis of the company and its product, with ON being the sole unlisted holding in Hanbury's OAR fund. Hanbury was very bullish on the assumption of ON overcoming some final issues and spoke of the market grasping at those firms who had something in hand rather than the understanding required to properly judge the superiority of the ON product. It was framed as a US investors only seeing the benefits of a US product thing (rightly or wrongly).

Let's assume 3 things (please adjust as you see fit):

1. Current holding in SUPP is 10% of assets, and

2. NAV is 45p, assets being 55p and debt being 10p

3. Valuation increase to 4x (this is not a blockbuster drug)

So there is an uplift of 16.5p, in which case NAV is 61.5p and a sale of 50% of the ON holding pays off the debt in full. Now the NAV of 61.5p has the benefit of having no associated debt and the discount narrows to reflect this, as well as around 20% of the assets being ON whose valuation is "certain". In this circumstance, there would be 50p worth of non-ON assets with no debt, and these could be discounted at 40% - so an overall price discount of 20p which would result in a share price of 41.5p.

But so far, the market sees it differently as the share price has shifted sod-all post-news. Perhaps not 10% of assets, or, nowhere near 4x. Or maybe 4x, but not 4x the current SUPP carrying value.

But even if we move halfway to my calculated value, that's about 34p. Still below where the directors bought stock? Looks like SUPP needs more than just ON.

All rough and ready numbers, so do your own if you feel like trying your luck. But I'm not buying any SUPP as I already own ON!! (pretty ironic).

[chucko1] 04/8/2020 15:51

Jonwig, my thoughts also. To benefit SUPP

1. They need to have not sold a significant portion, and
2. The margin on the testing apparatus, its scalability and future potential use needs to be significant.

At least on question2., I believe that the value is really quite significant and the market possibly underestimates its value, the result of having had one or two false starts while competitors have moved forward [albeit with a product not nearly as good].

On question 1., it reminds me of the Scottish football and rugby sides - a mighty and noble effort to secure victory thwarted in the 89th/79th minute by some random act of bad luck or incompetence or other unlikely tragedy. (in this case, they sold 'em all would be the candidate).

[spectoacc] 04/8/2020 15:51

Do former-WEIF still hold? In at least one of those placings, a load of ex Woodford stock got sold.

Is a good sign for Oxford Nano that they're able to raise so readily, tho as you say - dilution for SUPP. But could also be an exit route - selling out of ON would cover perhaps half the OD.

All been a bit quiet on Atom Bank too, another Top 3 holding that will surely want to test the market before long.

The sooner SUPP gets debt-free, with money to invest, the better IMO.

[jonwig] 04/8/2020 15:37

I heard on BBC news yesterday that Oxford Nanopore were the originator of the new 90-minutes' covid test. The last SUPP NAV was 46.12p in June and since that date, OxN has issued nine (!) tranches of new shares, all at 133.5p; the last one was yesterday.

It appears that there has been, to date, no uplift on the ascribed value of OxN, but certainly the SUPP holding has been diluted significantly. The EIF holding is in the hands of Acacia (or somebody) so may not help those holders.

Had there been any traction here, would the share price have been static over the past two or three trading days?

[johnwig] 03/8/2020 15:35

Thank you for your contributions, kooba. They have been measured and careful. And although you obviously know far more than anyone else on the SUPP threads about the subject in question, you do not present your conclusions in an arrogant and ignorant fashion. Please stick around.

[porsche1945] 03/8/2020 13:00

Ages since I checked up on this, wow, lost 75 pc of its value. Woodfords back fiasco brexit Britain and any small bio pharma oxford based lunatic requiring mug punters capital not worked out too well, best to stick to shorting U.K.,especially with wheezing Boris bunter in charge, and invest in S&P and Taiwan. What’s this worth, 12p in the pound?

[kooba] 03/8/2020 11:16

IP group a large holder of ON has had a positive price move on the back of the news , one would suggest that market thinks ON is more valuable with this new diagnostic presence. I would agree that the current value is greater than the carrying value , which was actually marked down on a technical factor recently , I think the business is worth significantly more.Wonder if new manager is ever going to do anything?Nice gig getting paid and sitting on your hands!

[lewis121] 03/8/2020 10:00

Excellent news. Can I retire now?

[kpo115] 03/8/2020 09:19

I suspect, as kooba suggests, that there is further strength to be derived from LamPORE being very useful in the swift diagnosis of flu and presumably other viral diseases. This could be a biggie for SUPP depending on how much of Oxford Nanopore SUPP still owns.

[johnwig] 03/8/2020 09:07

"Post 31 March 2020, Oxford Nanopore further announced that it is in advanced development of a new generation of end-to-end test (assay), known as LamPORE, for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The test is based on Oxford Nanopore's DNA/RNA sequencing technology, in combination with a simple, sample-preparation method which seeks to understand whether a sample currently contains the SARS-CoV-2 virus (rather than detecting antibodies that may indicate a previous infection). LamPORE is the first assay that the company has developed in-house with intended use in diagnostic applications, subject to relevant authorisations that are currently being pursued. Oxford Nanopore is planning to deploy LamPORE for COVID-19 in a regulated setting initially on GridION and soon after on its portable MinION Mk1C device."

[johnwig] 03/8/2020 09:04

"Post 31 March 2020, Oxford Nanopore further announced that it is in advanced development of a new generation of end-to-end test (assay), known as LamPORE, for the detection of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19. The test is based on Oxford Nanopore's DNA/RNA sequencing technology, in combination with a simple, sample-preparation method which seeks to understand whether a sample currently contains the SARS-CoV-2 virus (rather than detecting antibodies that may indicate a previous infection). LamPORE is the first assay that the company has developed in-house with intended use in diagnostic applications, subject to relevant authorisations that are currently being pursued. Oxford Nanopore is planning to deploy LamPORE for COVID-19 in a regulated setting initially on GridION and soon after on its portable MinION Mk1C device."

[johnwig] 03/8/2020 09:00

This new miracle test for covid is an Oxford Nanopore invention. Oxford Nanopore was, in the latest list, third by value in SUPP's portfolio.

But do not count any chickens, folks. Spectoacc, the world's most distinguished troll water diviner and share valuer has declared that Oxford Nanopore has "not-asset-value" (whatever that may mean, perhaps we should ask winnie or wiggy).

So here we are, hopes dashed yet again. Gosh, I wish I was as omniscient as speccy...