Savills Share Discussion Threads

[mike24] 03/12/2014 17:18

10/Jan.Sat Times,builders & estate agents come crashing down,as analysts buy
recommendations are torn up, due to the unexpected nov drop in construction
just 10days ago we were told to pile in?

the big city sell, in the short term, still seems in full swing, the problem is
the affordability of rents for tenants,
which investors risk taking a hit on, but they need capitol appreciation to
hold up over the next decade
if there is wage deflation in retail, there is wage inflation in construction
the last time mortgage rates were this cheap, was july 06 when prices
started a decline, its only two short yrs since the green shoots appeared
the last cycle similar to current situation was 72/74 when prices jumped 35%
a cycle with a short term big spike seems risky/flawed,

wandsworth house prices up by 35%in a year, so how can you have a near zero
inflation rate, this spike has given me a chance cash in/ downsize, before
the euro mess comes to a head, and far east cash now cherry picking europe's
best props,as Louvre Hotel group

15/4 regional papers in UK of which e/agents are main source of income, have
suddenly changed their tune, from ramping prices to "worrying upward pressure
on house prices" is'nt that HPI? what is the point of using pension cash to buy a BTL
with a 5% rent return if prices possibly drop by up to 26.1% over next five yrs
dyor

[hatter2] 27/11/2014 11:32

I see Standard Life have just topped up their holding with a couple of hundred thousand shares; probably helped today's move upwards.

[mike24] 10/10/2014 09:51

change of consumer sentiment and confidence has yet to affect markets
the press will do their bit, blowing everything out of proportion,
some bargain shares to be had by xmas

24/10 FT london luxury housing market freeze intensifies
sales in prime central london market fall by a third
21/11 FT why a house price bubble means trouble

in the 70's/80's you had high inflation reducing debt/mortgages
today you have wage deflation ie LRJ agency workers get 75/80% income of the full time staff
great for the company, but not for reducing debt,
london rises up to 3rd qtr, fuelled by capitol flight to UK
house next "Boris J" 1.4ml french cash buyer beats UK trader who needs mortgage

as period 89/94 a studio, queen elizabeth st, tower bridge, fell from 150k to as low
as 89k, if a similar repeat cycle would mean london prices could fall over next 5yrs

in the meantime banks have pumping money into large mortgages at the expense of
industry, banks in OZ have been pumping money into mining at the expense of mortgages
bringing housing market to a standstill in Perth, WA

[werty5] 27/8/2014 19:25

Think any interest rate hikes next year will be quite soft and I think the market as a whole will have already priced a lot of it in as lets face it interest rates are wholly expected to increase next year.

[contrarian2investor] 27/8/2014 09:52

werty5, Jockthescot & long-term SVS holders,

I have been wondering if SVS has further to climb after its strong
run over the
past few years. Can it climb beyond it previous highs before market
pressures return?



Using the IC recommendation, I asked the generous posters on the
ZULU the question below:

Does SAVILLS meet the criteria to be a ZULU stock?
SVS Opinions and comments please. TIA c2i.


These are the replies that I got:
-------------------->



simon42 26 Aug'14 - 19:47 - 790 of 801 0 0

I don't think Savills does qualify for the following reason, Jim
Slater doesn't like cyclical stocks and quotes the property sector
as an example.
I suspect he may have changed his mind since the first edition Zulu
book but that viewpoint did stand.
However, he does buy miners etc... which are cyclical and his son's
fund that has Zulu principles (flexible guidelines) does buy house
builders.

--------------

mrx9000 26 Aug'14 - 19:50 - 791 of 801 0 0

Contrarian: SVS... in regard being a zulu... SVS is in an area I am
familiar with...

Negatives
- Mkt Cap of £871m, generally this would be regarded as being
to big a mkt cap to be a considered a zulu.
- It doesn't really have something new? Business model is
replicated time and time again
- Dividend Yield has been reducing over last few years, now only
1.6%, however still paying one.
- Directors cashing in big time on variou sales.

Plus Points
- 4 Years EPS growth, plus 2 yrs forcast on top of this.
- A lot of cash, no debt.
- Zulu PEG of 0.74

Certainly I can think of far worse companies, however you have to
ask yourself is what do you think will happen to the housing market
when rate rises start to kick in.

Margins used to be high back in the day, however they dropped and
have gradually climbed back to half of what they used to (14% to
7.5%). My opinion is this 7.5% margin will be under pressure from
competitors and the climate it is operating at present.

Alas not for me, but thanks for pointing it out.

-------------------
dasv 26 Aug'14 - 21:14 - 792 of 801 0 0

c2i

On -'s screens SVS is a big hitter.

SVS qualifies forJames O'Shaugnessy Cornerstone Grow… (in
Growth Investing).
SVS qualifies for The Screen of Screens (in Quality Investing).

SVS qualifies for Naked Trader-esque Screen (in Growth
Investing).
SVS qualifies for Value Momentum Screen (in Momentum
Investing).
SVS qualifies for Cash Accruals Screen (in Quality Investing).
SVS qualifies for Growth at a Reasonable Price Screen (in Growth
Investing).
SVS qualifies for Jim Slater ZULU Principle Screen (in Growth
Investing).
SVS qualifies for Richard Beddard's Nifty Thrifty Scr… (in
Value Investing).

These screens are generally simplified and not necessarily accurate
representations of the original screens (e.g the zulu screen throws
up some unlikely candidates).

However SVS has decent metrics overall. Forward PEG is 0.81,
forward divi is 3.87%. It is cyclical and it is exposed to the
supply of credit and interest rates. It took a hit in the 2008
crash but has recovered. 675p was the cycle high last time.

SVS were my first bagger having bought in 2003. I took a job there
as a developer in Moorgate and wrote their UK residential property
search, integrating their CRM system with their web site. My boss
was a tetchy woman with no experience of technology who seemed to
have been given the position through contacts in the firm. She was
so rich her horse, when it died, was buried in her garden. Her
partner was a classic car dealer to the Maharajahs. (I left after a
year mostly because of her personality, and the complete lack of
oxygen in the offices: the air con did not work and the windows
were sealed shut). Even she baulked at some of the types who worked
at Savills. But the toffs are necessary to sell to big money
(probably). The big commercial deals (e.g. new Sainsbury's head
office) came through by serious contacts. Like structured property
finance in investment banking.

I guess because of my time there I won't ever invest but I can see
why people do - it keeps making money. "The richer are getting
richer every day, and the little that the poor man got it shall be
taken away" - Junior Byles "Rockers" Sound track.

Savills used to charge 2.5% on a residential property sale - a
fairly fat margin

-----------------
sundance 13 26 Aug'14 - 21:33 - 794 of 801 0 0

Sorry wrong board for last post!

Re: SVS - continue to think risk of interest rate rises is
overblown, salary inflation remains depressed, while with the
election coming up the political parties won't want to upset the
housing market too much by being overly hawkish.

[jockthescot] 20/8/2014 18:44

SAVILLS BUILDS GLOBAL PRESENCE
A buoyant UK property market and recovering European demand helped international real-estate adviser Savills
(SVS) grow operating profit by 16 per cent to about £22m last half. Investors responded by bidding its shares up 4 per cent.
Savills continues to benefit from global interest in property as a safe and profitable investment - even from sovereign wealth funds that have "never owned a brick", says chief executive Jeremy Helsby. That trend helped it lift both sales and underlying pre-tax profits at its key transaction advisory division by 12 per cent and profit at its consultancy business by a third to £8.4m.
The group grew underlying profits in the UK, US and even in continental Europe, as property markets improved even in once crash-blighted markets like Spain and Ireland. However, its profits from the Pacific rim slumped by nearly a fifth, reflecting the recent introduction of punishingly high tax rates in Hong Kong and Singapore. Savills's global presence helps insulate it from any weakness in individual markets, but the strategy isn't just to pin "flags on maps", stresses Mr Helsby. Instead it wants to dominate - which explains why it recently acquired US occupier services firm Studley, the market leader in New York and Washington.
Savills's strong US showing and resilience in Asia prompted broker Numis to raise its pre-tax profit and EPS forecasts by 5 per cent to £90.1m and 51.3p - up from £75.2m and 43.1p last year.
SAVILLS (SVS)
ORD PRICE: 595p MARKET VALUE: £802m
TOUCH: 595-596p 12-MONTH HIGH: 674p LOW: 560p
DIVIDEND YIELD: 3.2% PE RATIO: 14
NET ASSET VALUE: 208p* NET CASH: £2.5m
Half-year to 30 Jun Turnover (£m) Pre-tax profit (£m) Earnings per share (p) Dividend per share (p)
2013 399 21.4 12.2 3.50
2014 431 24.7 14.1 3.75
% change +8 +15 +16 +7
Ex-div: 10 Sep
Payment: 13 Oct
*Includes intangible assets of £241m, or 179p a share
IC VIEW:
Savills is a well run company, with strong positions in a nice mixture of markets and cash on the balance sheet. Its core UK businesses are also recovering nicely. But its shares trade on just 12 times forecast earnings - a discount to the historical rating. We upgrade to buy.
Last IC view: Hold, 635p, 20 March 2014

[werty5] 16/8/2014 22:50

Friday's edition of the IC also has a buy recommendation.

[broadwood] 07/8/2014 09:13

Numis upgrades to Buy.

[broadwood] 07/8/2014 07:22

Savills H1 pretax profit rises 15%

StockMarketWire.com

Savills recorded an H1 pretax profit of 24.7m, up 15% from £21.4m a year earlier. Revenue was up 8% to £430.8m, from £399.0m. It proposed an interim dividend hike of 7% to 3.75p a share, from 3.5p.

CEO Jeremy Helsby said Savills delivered a strong first half performance slightly ahead of the company's expectations.

This, he said, was the "result of our strength in key transactional markets in the UK, recovery in Continental Europe and the resilience of the Asia Pacific business where the stable foundation of property management represents over 60% of revenue.

"In addition, we have made a substantial investment in the business through our acquisition of Studley in the US.

"Looking to the second half, we currently see no significant change in the overall outlook for our business and the Board remains confident in its expectations for the full year.

"Many markets continue to be highly demand-driven as a result of the continued substantial capital allocated to real estate around the world and Savills is well placed to act on the opportunities that emerge." Highlights:

· Transaction Advisory revenue growth of 12% as strong UK and European performances

offset continued weak volumes in Hong Kong, Mainland China and Singapore

· Consultancy revenue up 14% with profit up 33% over H1 2013

· Revenue in the UK improved by 15% with profits up 24%

· Revenue in Continental Europe improved by 18% delivering an underlying profit before tax

of £0.1m (H1 2013: £2.6m loss)

· Cordea Savills Investment Management revenue up 12% with significant fund commitments

and Assets under Management increased 43% to ��6.3bn (H1 2013: ��4.4bn)

· Studley acquisition in the US completed on 30 May 2014. The business is performing as

anticipated and the integration programme is progressing well

[broadwood] 12/5/2014 14:57

A positive start to the year which saw continued growth in the UK in the January-April period helped lift shares in Savills, the FTSE 250-listed international real estate advisor, on Monday.

As anticipated, the company delivered a "robust" performance in both Asia and Continental Europe, while its US business has an improved pipeline. Cordea Savills, the group's investment management business, traded in line with its expectations of revenue and profit growth.

Discussing each region more specifically, the group said: "In the UK commercial markets, Savills has continued to maintain a significant share of the Prime Central London investment and leasing markets, although, as anticipated, the shortage of supply of investment stock has become increasingly apparent.

"Growth in investment volume outside London has continued from last year and development activity has further increased. We continue to expect regional recovery to be the primary driver of growth for our UK commercial business in 2014."

The UK Prime Residential market continued to perform well with year-on-year increases in both volume and value, although as anticipated, the group reported some recent cooling in the Prime and Super Prime Central London market.

"In contrast, there remains strong demand for property in the £1-2m price segments of the North, East and South West London regions. The regional UK residential market is continuing to recover with growing volumes and a significant increase in buyers registering with Savills," it continued.

In Asia the Japanese business continued to grow "substantially", while in mainland China both revenue and earnings grew as expected despite a slowdown in transaction markets.

"Globally, our Consultancy business has experienced continued revenue growth with particular strengths in UK Development consultancy and UK/Continental European Valuation consultancy," the group added.

"The Property Management business has delivered a solid increase in revenue, particularly in the UK and in Asia where we continued to grow our market share in the core markets of Hong Kong and China."

[hatter2] 12/5/2014 10:52

Trading Statement today is nice and steady at market expectations. No shocks, should remain steady if not exciting.

[blondviking] 02/5/2014 06:25

Big news which should be positive for the co. It appears to be a lot of money but hopefully Sav can make it work!

Savills plc ("Savills"), one of the world's leading real estate advisory firms, is pleased to announce the proposed acquisition of Studley, Inc. ("Studley"), the leading independent commercial real estate services firm specialising in tenant representation in the United States ("US"), for up to US$260 million (GBP154 million), payable in instalments between completion and 31 May 2017 in cash, promissory notes and ordinary shares of Savills.
I am not

[broadwood] 20/3/2014 15:49

Numis Savills PLC 20/03/2014
Upgrades
Add Buy 1 761.00 616.00 761 2

[maurillac] 20/3/2014 08:40

yes all looks good to me !
very quiet here too - probably good.
m

[broadwood] 20/3/2014 07:10

Should be enough to keep the momentum going.

"I am delighted to report a strong set of results with revenues up 12% to a record high of GBP904.8m and underlying profits up 28%. These results demonstrate the strength of our position in the prime Residential and Commercial markets of the world's key cities and the benefit of the investment that we have made across the business to expand our service lines.

We have made a solid start to 2014 with performance in line with management expectations. In the UK, we expect continuing demand for London property and recovery in the regional markets, although availability of commercial stock, in particular, is increasingly a challenge. In Asia, whilst we expect the reduction in trading volumes in Hong Kong to persist for at least the first half of the year, this should be mitigated, in part, by the strength of other regions across Asia. We also expect to show a continued improvement in our businesses in Continental Europe and the US. Looking ahead, we are well positioned with a clear strategy for extending the depth and breadth of our services in the world's key markets

[maurillac] 19/3/2014 10:06

yes .. i expected to see the share price climb this week ahead of results. maybe the crimean situation is having an effect. i will be surprised if svs disappoint the market though.
m

[broadwood] 19/3/2014 06:49

Wrong - tomorrow.

[broadwood] 18/3/2014 15:31

Results tomorrow?

[bouleversee] 06/3/2014 21:52

Hope so. If they haven't made serious money in London in the past year, there is something seriously wrong. However, I think the benefits probably go more to staff than shareholders.

[maurillac] 06/3/2014 21:39

very quiet here. any thoughts on what to expect on 20th march ?
seems to have lagged the market a bit recently so im wondering if a bounce is due here ?
m

[mike24] 24/2/2014 08:57

580 Mclead rd, Scotdale,denmark, W,Australia, featured in FT ten yrs ago
as one of the best places to live in OZ 3hr drive south of perth,
auction 1/3/14 dallas type spread with 70acres thrown in

why are one of the coldest places on the planet, nova scotia -55c in mid winter, being advertised as investments? building plots in the middle of nowhere
create logistical problems, suppliers are spread over vast areas,
locals say, going to stores we leave engine running in case we can't start truck again
28/2 not to bad in tremblant today -28c
quebec seems so anti-english,the slopes at tremblant resemble the malvern hills,
no spectacular alpine scenery
in summer the mosquito is referred to as "the national bird"
tell us why its a good investment????????????

nai

[broadwood] 09/1/2014 13:59

Old Mutual ( affectionally known as 'Old Mut') buying in.

[bouleversee] 09/1/2014 12:34

Hope so. About time!

[mechanical trader] 09/1/2014 11:03

Breakout on here. Fundies solid aswel.

[bouleversee] 08/1/2014 21:25

I think it's time they redesigned the format of these RNS alerts. It often takes ages to work out what's happened. Idiotic! Should be straightforward and not require a forensic investigation. We need a woman on the job!