Sandvine Corp. Share Discussion Threads

[onlyonestorm] 22/3/2006 00:29

omalaha - I maybe wrong, and have been before, but suggest you watch this newbe a while yet before dipping your toe in!!!

Don't forget DYOR!!!!!!!!!!!

Stormy

[omalaha] 21/3/2006 20:33

mad days trading-v.large buy/sells, could hardly work out what was what. Were some people offloading stock acquired at the placing? If so they made a nice profit.

[Abuse team] 21/3/2006 16:22

Post removed by ADVFN

[sandbank] 21/3/2006 16:15

From Monisha Varadan of Allnewissues.com

These recommendations do not constitute advice, please read the risk warnings

MTI Wireless is an Israeli-based antennae development company. It has recorded a consistent year-on-year growth in profits, has maintained profit margins as high as 40% and over the next year is hoping to pay dividends which put the stock on a prospective yield of 2.5%. The business is based on the outskirts of Tel Aviv and was established nearly 30 years ago. In 1994 it was acquired by a larger technology company, MTI Computers. MTI Computers itself is quoted in Tel Aviv, operates a holding company structure and is owned largely by the Borovitz family. The parent company has decided to hive off the wireless division onto AIM and the shares listed last week. MTI Computers will continue to own 74% of the listed business. MTI is in the process of raising £6 million and, at the placing price of 36p, MTI Wireless Edge is valued at £19.9 million.

Operations

The business is exclusively focused on making antennae systems for wireless applications. The group originally developed these antennae for defence purposes as devices used to guide missiles. The technology needed to work in tough operating environments. Therefore, MTI developed flat antennae which could be wrapped around projectiles and this led to the creation of the first commercial antennae.

MTI's commercial antennae can be mounted externally on base stations and provide end users with access to wireless signals. The slim, flat model is the most popular design. It looks better, copes better with wind load, and is possibly the only solution for the WiMax integrated, a wireless communication device used, sometimes, to connect an entire city. MTI also designs antennae mounting kits that allow for low-cost easy set up. The business has spent nearly $7.5 million on R&D over the last few years and in January 2001 raised $4 million via a private placement to accelerate marketing and development. Scaled production has been achieved over the last five years with MTI selling nearly 750,000 antennas worldwide.

Business Development

The business has gathered an impressive list of clients worldwide. Most of its revenues are recorded in dollars and a large chunk of its revenues come from America. Its five largest customers account for 50% of sales and these five customers represent 50% of the global market. Alvarion, for instance, is the group's largest customer and has the greatest share in the global wireless market. In terms of defence application, the Israeli Defence Force accounts for a large portion of military sales. Historically, commercial sales contributed 86% of total sales, while military sales brought in the remaining 14%. Although military devices form a tiny portion of revenues, they cover a wide range of designs. The division is profitable and R&D is fully funded by its military customers. The group employs 60 full-time staff and takes on 20 contract staff during peak a production period which is reflected in the company's low cost base. In 2005 alone, the business sold 220,000 antennae; a majority of these were specialist outdoor, flat panel antennae for fixed wireless broadband. The devices can cost anywhere between $5 for a basic antennae to $250,000 for a top-end military system. As part of its growth strategy, the business has entered the fairly new and undeveloped RFID market and expects sales from this sector to increase over the next few years.

In the year to December 2005 sales grew by nearly 39% to $11.6 million, while profits doubled to $1.87 million. The parent company has chosen to IPO in order to increase its profile in Europe, get closer to its suppliers, move away from being a predominantly Israeli company and accelerate international marketing and business development. Some of the funds raised have also been set aside for working capital purposes.

Management

Zvi Borovitz, Non-executive Chairman and founder, worked for Elta Electronics, a subsidiary of Israeli Aircraft Industries, and was part of the team that developed the Israeli airborne radar. His family controls the Tel Aviv-listed parent company. Dov Feiner, CEO, has served as President since 1996 and was responsible for taking the business into the commercial markets. Moni Borovitz, Finance Director, was a consultant at Ernst and Young. He is the son of Zvi Borovitz.

Investment Conclusion

MTI operates in a fairly young, immature sector and has the advantage of having captured 25% of the global market share. If it maintains its current rate of growth, analysts are forecasting a 45% growth in sales in the current year and a 35% rise in 2007. Profits in 2006 are expected to come in at $3.5 million, putting the stock on a forward PE of 10. Following the fundraising, cash flow is expected to be strong, especially since the business finished the year with $3.9 million in cash. MTI is intending to pay out nearly 25% of earnings, implying a dividend yield of 2.5%. Given that MTI Wireless is a profitable, growing business, we see little reason not to invest. The shares are worth a punt.

Contact Details - Corporate Synergy – 020 7448 4400

[onlyonestorm] 21/3/2006 13:28

Ah you found it, just left you a message on the march thread.

Still watching/waiting

Stormy

[omalaha] 21/3/2006 10:00

hhmmm - agree, one to watch, one of the papers said it was expected to move 20p today, can't see that happening.

[onlyonestorm] 21/3/2006 09:22

Not in yet, but will watch with interest>

Good Luck

Stormy

[onlyonestorm] 21/3/2006 09:21

New to aim today another Sir Terry Mathews Company!!

[sandbank] 01/3/2006 20:09

chestnuts - 1 Mar'06 - 09:07 - 1807 of 1820

Morning Mel if you no doubt noticed the ukx is quite high well i reckon we are in for a big fall very shortly maybe a 1000pts, The chart below shows the last 3 waves are = this is the 3rd wave , so saying that means we are going onto the 4th wave the 2nd wave was a rolling wave and only corrected a little, so i reckon this will be a sharp drop, so if i am right battern down the hatches.
And if i am correct it will bottom around the 18th of March


free stock charts from ADVFN.COM

melfaraj - 1 Mar'06 - 10:17 - 1808 of 1820

chesnut,

good to hear from you again and thanks for your analysis above.
i can see where you come from. so this is one possibility.

as is always, there is more than one way of looking at a chart. one should therefore look at all the possible scenarios.

this other scenario is that we have an uptrending chart and one that has hit the resistance of the channel. it is now rebounding from the said resistance heading south to hit the support of the said channel in about one month time at slightly over 5600.

the above scenario assumes the current trend is to continue, i.e. no breakouts.

a 3rd scenario is to allow in for breakouts, one from the current level of the resistance of the present channel. the other breakout is to be from the support of the current channe at around 5600.

a good technician would then follow the chart unrolling and try and predict in advance as to which way the chart is heading

[sandbank] 25/2/2006 22:57

Nabeel4975 - 24 Feb'06 - 17:19 - 8247 of 8255

Portway,

I am actually a cheat! There is an easy way to find a post by opening many of them at the same time by editing the address bar from and to numbers e.g.
This shows 240 posts from 8000 to 8240



Then click Edit -> Find (on this page) ...
type what you are looking for (soldier, in this case) and you will get that post straightaway.

[sandbank] 27/1/2006 10:38

From VoIP to value


Who should tremble - and who should rejoice - on the news that Tesco, the juggernaut of UK retailing, is rolling into the market for internet-based telephone services? Possibly no-one, if we assume that Tesco attacks this market in the uncharacteristically flimsy way that it tackled fixed-line telephony. The tremblers would have been those telecoms operators that rely on bog-standard telephone calls for their revenues. That's because internet-based calls - using so-called voice-over internet protocol (VoIP) - are free, or they should be. However, happily for them - and unhappily for consumers - Tesco plans to charge 2p a minute for calls to UK land lines.

Even if - a big if - Tesco's assault on internet telephony is a handbags affair, VoIP still carries threats and opportunities for technology companies. The chief threat is to those telecoms providers who don't, or can't, adapt. Ironically, the mobile operators, such as Vodafone, who did much to destroy the old shape of telephony, now look the endangered species. That's because sending low added-value voice calls at expensive rates accounts for much of their revenue. Faced with competitors who offer free calls for mobile users linking to Wi-Fi hot spots, their income would fade away. Granted, that scenario won't generate sizeable revenues for several years. But even so.

Meanwhile, no-one suggests that VoIP will mean fewer voice calls - quite the opposite if they're free. So VoIP brings opportunities for hardware and software providers who can hit the right spots. The trouble is, it's easy to see the potential of internet telephony. It is trickier to say which companies will benefit, and whether the potential gains are factored into the price of their shares, as they should be in an efficient capital market.

However, think of the specific debate about the risks and rewards of VoIP as the distillation of a wider question: are technology shares - once the definitive glamour shares - now looking like value stocks? Tackle the problem this way and it becomes more accessible for technology dullards like me. Not that I am ashamed of my limited ability. Clearly, technology shares are just as difficult for so-called experts to price. That much is obvious from the continuing volatility in their share prices.

Simultaneously, however, technology shares have shed some of the mystery that once caused them to be so glamorous. Indeed, some are more utilities than growth stocks. BT, with the 5.2 per cent yield on its shares, is the best example, even though it looks better placed than many to benefit from VoIP.

But look at the eight stocks in the table. This collection of hardware and software providers all generate income from telecoms, from a little (Anite), to the lot (Cable & Wireless [C&W] and Colt Telecom). Yet, on average, their shares are rated at just 1.6 times latest annual sales, and the ratio drops to 1.2 times if we exclude microchip designer Imagination Technologies. That's a value-stock rating for businesses targeting markets that remain high-growth.

Of course, in other respects the eight look nothing like value stocks. There is a lack of profits, let alone dividends. Only three - Detica, Dimension Data and Filtronic - are forecast to increase their earnings in both the current year and the following one. In the case of Filtronic, this is despite a profit warning. C&W and Spirent have also warned on profits in the past year. And, at these two - plus Anite - City analysts, ever the optimists, forecast profit to fall in the current year, only to recover sharply the year after. It is forgivable for Imagination Technologies - the real glamour stock of the eight - to remain in losses this year and next. The same can't be said for Colt Telecom, where patience has worn as thin as a microchip's thickness. Colt's management insists the business is close to generating free cash, but the proportion of revenues coming from vulnerable voice services remains depressingly high.

On average, the eight also generate less cash than I might expect, and have less cash to play with. Even so, there isn't much financial distress in evidence. Which makes me think that it might be sensible to do a bit of regression analysis and find the most likely five out of the eight. Treat those five as one technology holding, then do the same for out-of-favour biotechnology shares (see Pharmas' market, 2 December 2005) and I might have a good use for, say, £30,000 of the £95,000 of cash in the Bearbull Speculative Portfolio, which has no exposure to these sectors.

The difficulty is that there would be an extra 10 holdings in the portfolio, adding considerably to the mundane tasks. When every minute spent monitoring stop-losses and logging dividends is a minute less spent doing proper research, that matters.

[sandbank] 18/1/2006 09:43

FIDELITY ASIAN WARRANTS
orvil - 28 Jul'05 - 17:33 - 11 of 30

Macca-i hold some 300,000 Fasw and for my sins have done for a while. They give the underlying right to subscribe for the FAS units at the subscription price of £1.00. The current NAV of FAS is about 95p and the Trust itself 86p the warrant is exercisable up to Dec 06 at £1. If you believe as I do that the underlying trust actual value will reach £1 or more then we are in the money and the warrant has a real value.When it is in the money the trust goes up 1p the warrant will go up 1p assuming no anticipation of events. However because the warrant is a tradeable instrument in its own right until Dec 06 it fluctuates on the perceived and actual fortunes of the underlying trust.You therefore get a premium. i anticipate that by Dec 06 all things being well that the Trust will be worth 130p (the discount having reduced and the value increased) this will give the warrant a price in Dec of 30p and the ability to buy the Trust at £1.00. However prior to that event I will sell the warrant hopefully at around 30p making a 600% profit on the current warrant price. It is all a matter of timing and if the Trust price exceeds my goal the warrant will fly in anticipation.hope this helps-look at the history of the warrant price v the trust and you will see last time the trust was around this level the warrant reached 16p.This can be highly volatile in both directions-I have seen it move 80% in a day-be careful

[sandbank] 16/1/2006 13:57

FROM NAKED TRADER SITE 16-1-05
Spreadbet long for £30 a point on Tullow (equivalent to 3,000 shares) at 292p. This tops up on my buy late last year at a nice looking 225p! Target 330 stop 265.
Fletcher King (FLK) up more than 10% with I believe way more to come - it's now 65p and I expect a rise to around the 80p level - in fact I am tempted to buy some more though I am being cautious as it is a bit illiquid.
burren Energy up nearly 5% on news of acquisitions in Yemen and Oman.
Dragon Oil (confirming a bottom at 200p at the moment) and Shanks - there are rumours of an upcoming bid on this one. One of last week's buys Victrex has stormed up 20p
Brammer and Hikma both look like they are about to move higher and Highway Insurance could shift right up to 75 if 70 can be broken.

[mrbisto] 15/1/2006 14:41

Does this thread cover, like , other peoples useful post? I find that if I stick my hand thru folks letter boxes on Wednesdays & Thursday then invariably I get a whole load of Giros which I find extremely useful

Anyway, DYOR etc

[sandbank] 15/1/2006 14:12

HARRY PUNTER ON ADP THREAD

[sandbank] 15/1/2006 13:13

BGY Sunday Telegraph 15-1-2006

Flagging British Energy

Soaring gas prices may not be popular in Ukraine, but they have proved a lifeline for British Energy. The nuclear power generator limped back onto the stock market exactly a year ago after its near-bankruptcy in 2002. At the time, few analysts had a good word to say for the company or its management. Yet its share price has since doubled and BE is next in line to join the FTSE100.

Gas prices should stay high in the UK for the next couple of years, as the country builds up storage capacity to cope with its increasing need for imported gas. That means wholesale electricity prices should stay high, which is good news for BE, since its cost of generating power is more or less fixed at £20 per MWh.

The current spot price is £40 per MWh and BE has been able to lock in these high prices by agreeing long-term contracts with its customers. In December, it announced it had sold 50 per cent of its planned output for next year for £35 per MWh.

But what will happen after 2008? One theory is that electricity prices will fall as gas starts to stream into the UK via pipelines from Russia and Norway. Merrill Lynch reckons prices will peak at £46 per MWh in 2008 and fall back to £34 in 2010 - well above BE's break-even point.

The snag is the share price. Even if you believe gas prices will average £50 per MWh after 2008, that only justifies a price of about 530p, according to Merrill Lynch. That's 7 per cent below the current price. To justify more, BE's new American boss would need to improve the efficiency of the existing fleet and extend the working lives of its power stations. All but one are due to close by 2023.

The good news is that management is investing in efficiency, and the Government is warming to nuclear power. But even if BE gets a five-year life extension to all its plants and improves efficiency to 90 per cent, that still only gets the price to 670p. And given BE's huge operational gearing, that's not enough upside to chase the shares higher.

By Simon Nixon

[sandbank] 14/1/2006 22:56

BGY Praipus - 6 Jan'06 - 13:20 - 9383 of 9393

Elsworth, get with the program, short stocks which are in trouble your a year or two too late for BGY.

On the ADVFN financials page for each stock it gives "Crest Data" and a "stock on loan" figure I believe this gives an indication how much stock is being used by shorters.

For BGY its 7.1% on loan
For RGU Regus its 12% on loan
For ETL Eurotunnel its 50% on loan

Which one do you think the market is expecting to go down and is worth shorting?

No offence meant just an observation.


praipus, How do you find the crest data?

Praipus - 6 Jan'06 - 22:41 - 9386 of 9393

Click on the FINANCIALS button at the top of the page. Should select BGY automatically and bring up all the stats accounts and financials data. Scroll down until you see the sub heading "Crest Data" its not carried for all shares.

[sandbank] 14/1/2006 22:11

SECT THREAD



melfaraj - 22 Feb'03 - 19:54

(For this year 2006 I have chosen to retain the original wordings of the year when this thread was create 2003. Therefore for FAR2 you should now read FAR5. And this year the classifications and epics for the UK market have changed and new sectors have been created. These changes have been reflected here)

There are essentially two approaches to stock picking. The Up Down and the Down Up.

This thread deals with the first of the two approaches. You start the selection process by selecting a well to do sector and having narrowed down (filtered down) your areas of interest you then go on to select well to do companies within the selected sector.

The Down Up approach looks for a well to do company without restrictions of sector or section of the market the company belongs to. For it is a known fact that some companies will flourish in bad sectors or bad market conditions. This second approach is supported by the sister thread: " The Faraj List of Exploding Stock Part 2-03", Epic 'FAR2',

2 charts have been shown side by side per sector representing long term, 5 yr, and medium term, 1 yr,charts of the UK sectors.

link to the sectors epics and names:

[haveagoodday] 14/1/2006 21:20

nice one sandy
rgds

[sandbank] 14/1/2006 18:22

qxl

Simon Cawkwell - 14 Jan'06 - 17:41 - 378 of 378

Gentlemen,

There is a QXL shareholder, holding perhaps 8%, through Credit Suisse in Switzerland who declines to disclose who he/it is. He has been subjected by QXL to a CA1985 S212 enquiry which, as many readers will know, can lead to a refusal on the part of the underlying beneficial shareholder to disclose his identity. This has happened here.

The sanction for this conduct against those falling under the British judicial remit is a prison sentence or a fine and, interestingly, even if this criminal is not identified the shareholding faces the risk of not receiving dividends or capital distribution. Finally, should this shareholder wish to sell he/it runs the risk of finding that its proposed transfers are void. Or, put another way, the shares cannot be sold.

Why would this shareholder behave in this way: is it because it is linked under concert party considerations to Izaki? Or Florissant?

Turning elsewhere, readers may be interested to know that where a shareholder appoints a director to the board of a company the incoming director is invited by the existing board to join it. The directors then give that incoming director a waiver of confidentiality as regards his appointing party - for otherwise the incoming director would have to behave as all other directors and this would mean not informing shareholders at any point of QXL's business other than in the normal course of a company's business. I think this probably means that both Izaki and now Florissant are insiders. This makes the S212 barred shareholder even more interesting.

Of course, all this means that FTSE is now compelled to rectify its errors and QXL can only go down from here, £145, unless commercial news justifies the current price. This is highly unlikely.

Simon Cawkwell

[sandbank] 14/1/2006 18:09

ROYAL AND SUN ALLICANCE RSA FAR5 melfaraj - 14 Jan'06 - 15:13 - 565 of 569