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[montyhedge] 01/5/2009 07:45

Relenza should be used first, if they raise to L6 then watch GSK take off next week.

[sat69] 01/5/2009 06:28

Futures pointing to a lower opening this morning.

[lord luc4n] 30/4/2009 20:11

Take your profits chaps

[hadham] 30/4/2009 20:01

In the light of the current H1N1 situation here's an interesting article I found from January

Tamiflu Is Unlikely to Thwart Flu Strain in Europe, Report Says

By Jason Gale

Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Tamiflu is unlikely to stop one of the three most-common seasonal flu strains circulating in North America and Europe this winter, with studies showing more than 90 percent resistance to Roche Holding AG's drug.

Since the emergence of a Tamiflu-evading variant of the H1N1 flu virus was reported to the World Health Organization by Norway a year ago, the bug has been found in more than 50 countries. Preliminary data from the U.K., Japan and other northern hemisphere countries last quarter show almost all H1N1 viruses are resistant to the best-selling anti-flu pill, the WHO said in a statement posted on its Web site yesterday.

The discovery is prompting health officials to recommend other medicines, such as GlaxoSmithKline Plc's Relenza, to fight a disease the WHO estimates causes 250,000 to 500,000 deaths annually. All three common flu strains -- H1N1, H3N2 and type B -- are susceptible to Relenza, an inhaled powder. H1N1 is the most-common flu virus circulating in the U.S. this winter, while H3N2 has so far dominated in Europe.

``Since most clinicians are unaware of the flu strain they are trying to treat, it makes sense for them to prescribe, where appropriate, a medication that's effective against the broadest range of viruses,'' said Jennifer McKimm-Breschkin, a virologist at the Commonwealth Science and Industrial Research Organization in Melbourne and a member of an international committee undertaking global surveillance on potential drug resistance.

McKimm-Breschkin was among a group of scientists in Australia that developed Relenza.

Prescribing Advice

In the U.S., doctors prescribing anti-flu treatments should give their patients Relenza or a combination of Tamiflu and an older drug called rimantadine, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said in a Dec. 19 statement. Basel, Geneva-based Roche had worldwide Tamiflu sales of $1.74 billion in 2007 and $2.1 billion in 2006.

Of the 73 H1N1 viruses tested in the U.S. since Oct. 1, 99 percent were resistant to Tamiflu, and all were susceptible to Relenza, rimantadine and amantadine, a similar drug, the CDC said in its latest weekly flu report.

Among H1N1 viruses tested last quarter from Ghana, Canada, Israel, Norway, U.K. and Japan, Tamiflu-resistance levels varied from 93 percent to 100 percent. In Argentina, testing of one H1N1 sample found no resistance, according to WHO.

Both Tamiflu and Relenza work by blocking a protein on the surface of influenza particles called neuraminidase which allows the virus to spread from infected cells to other cells in the body. Scientists say some H1N1 viruses have evolved to evade Tamiflu through a single mutation in the neuraminidase that prevents the medicine from clinging to the viral protein, thereby enabling the pathogen to spread. Relenza is unaffected by the change.

To contact the reporters on this story: Jason Gale in Singapore at [e-mail]

Last Updated: January 6, 2009 22:44 EST

[sat69] 30/4/2009 18:47

Set to open lower tomorrow.

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 18:09

Defensives will come into play im May, banks are very much overbought, GSK will come into favour, especially if swine flu goes to L6. Best progessive dividend payer in the FTSE 100 growing at 8% per year.

[gotnorolex] 30/4/2009 17:50

Flight to quality in May for sure,and therefor have to agree with montyhedge on this one!

[wenlynn] 30/4/2009 16:51

How's Level 2 looking ?

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 15:29

Level 6 this weekend then take-off tuesday.

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 15:27

Of course market shut Monday, L6 will be announced shortly, Tuesday morning 1125p plus of course our 14p dividend.

[oilgetmecoat] 30/4/2009 15:25

Will this close today at or above $10-50? Bodes well for this being new support, and more upside.

[wenlynn] 30/4/2009 15:21

WHO Spokesman said "Why don't you ffffaaadddeee away ?".

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 15:20

When we go to L6 Monday, investors will wake up to the potential of the extra revenue for GSK and of course Roche, £15 billion on revenue for GSK.

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 15:18

WHO speaking at the moment, 500 million doses to be ready, at £40 a time thats a lot of dosh for GSK.

[lord luc4n] 30/4/2009 15:14

This one's f'cked chaps, you're being given another chance to bail out

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 15:11

This will be L6 on Monday.

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 15:10

WHO stockpiles being sent to Mexico and other countries in need, Relenza and Tamiflu being used.

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 15:06

EU just announced, GSK and Roche to supply.

[diku] 30/4/2009 15:04

Monty...get back to the Barc thread please!...

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 15:01

Goverments using supplies will have to replaced. Fortunes for Roche, GSK.

[montyhedge] 30/4/2009 14:48

Level 6 talk of this weekend, at £40 a dose, add £15 billion to turnover.