Its now fallen over 10% since I suggested it was a short. |
sorry NHO
Just picked up your post.
To explain it I called it previously an hotel for things. That is what this business is. I spent a lot of time researching it some years ago.
It is simply quite amazing the amount of pure rubbish that people keep and happily for this industry store.
How you value is up to you. I value it purely on a property play. Its dangerous to compare it to Big Yellow as the latter operate a different model.
At the moment and of course I could be completely wrong I think property is overpriced. I bought into the old company at a discount to NAV and as far as I remember this is now at a slight premium.
However I like the business.
Working in it is a different matter.
I'll keep following this thread. Let me know when you buy in again if you do. |
hybrasil,
what measure is a good valuation basis...i mean you mention market value as a multiple of turnover (presumably as i was talking about the business aspect of safestore i.e. its storage business, rather than the property co side of the company). Is that the basis you use when you are talking about £1.70.
Or should i just compare to peers i.e. big yellow etc.
Thanks for the help mate. |
nho
probably a wise decision (and if I am right it definetely is). Dont be disheartened . Its all part of the learning process. There will be money to be made here but not at this price. |
No pro, just can't see why SAFE share price should be this high when compared against peers (that is, other storage companies). This has been mentioned before by others. DYOR. |
Sold out today - you guys are pros, im just learning the ropes! |
hb:
I'm looking forward to it. |
My £1.70 isnt looking too far away! |
They have started to fall |
I reckon these will be great value at £1.70 |
NHO
My point was in response to your suggestion that the business had a value.
As to british land (mainly commercial offices and retail) and Mountview (residential) you are comparing chalk with cheese. I have been to over 32 of the safestore units.
I have a holding in mountview which has gone up 50 % in 12 months. Equally I failed to hold on to my british land shares which I sold at £3.30.
One or other of us will be right.All I can tell you is that in my book this is grossly overvalued. I see they are hitting a new low today. |
And so what..
British Land : market cap 7,500,000,000
turnover 900,000,000 (last interims x2 for FY)
Multiple is 8.3
Safe stores is 6.8 on your numbers.
Know its a really rough and ready calc. but your comment about rocket science, doesnt hold that much sway.
OK so BL is a FTSE 100, and thats why it has a higher multiple, but other prop cos have multiples similar to Safestores.
Look at Mountview Estates,
turnover 47.5m
market cap 308 m
multiple 6.5
aint too far off safestores..certainly not 1/2 of it as your suggesting should be a correct sector valuation multiple mate! |
And so what..
British Land : market cap 7,500,000,000
turnover 900,000,000 (last interims x2 for FY)
Multiple is 8.3
Safe stores is 6.8 on your numbers.
Know its a really rough and ready calc. but your comment about rocket science, doesnt hold that much sway.
OK so BL is a FTSE 100, and thats why it has a higher multiple, but other prop cos have multiples similar to Safestores.
Look at Mountview Estates,
turnover 47.5m
market cap 308 m
multiple 6.5
aint too far off safestores..certainly not 1/2 of it as your suggesting should be the correct sector valuation multiple mate! |
NHO
If you are in this as a business have a look at the figures.
MCAP £430 million turnover £63million. Rocket scientist etc?
This is value at about half the current share price |
I'm afraid that is at all it is. It is probably best described as an hotel for things. It dropped to its lowest so far today but in my book it has a long way to fall. |
if you believe it is essentially a prop co, and the storage business, has no value. in terms of potential growth rates in the storage industry , and backed up by the recent results, then this may not be a correct assumption. |
Actually I am very positive and made tons of loot out of the old safestore. I just think at the moment property as an asset class is at an unusual stage.
I bought into the old safestore at a massive discount to NAV.
Why should a property company trade at a premium.
I see simon cawkwell is shorting May.
I just think these are a short. No I do not have a position- yet. |
Market leader, in a highly growing sector. Good brand name and recognition.
Look at the accounts - good revenue and profit growth yoy.
Scope for international expansion and takeover.
Have you lads got a little short sell on, or are you just negative people. |
Doesn't this company have a lot of debt? |
History often helps.
Go and look at the old safestore. Its share price fluctuated wildly. It was another Larry Lipman creation and had a lot of interesting shareholders including George Soros who I think actually lost money on it.
Property is not as some people believe a one way ticket. |
..or was it may09 |
"fundamentals are strong": Explain. |
nhojrellek, your right the fundamentals are strong and the shares will lift, I estimate about may 08. |
dont think you are as the fundamentals of the business are too strong. the current valuation isnt cheap, but the upside that'll start to come through will lift the shares. |
hybrasil:
You might be right.
LOK sites are valued at 80 pound a sq ft, which is one third the valuation of BYG.. and half that of Safestore (SAFE).
Tempus from the Times |
Register to chat with like-minded investors on our interactive forums.
Hot Features
Premium
