Sabien Technology Share Discussion Threads

[pj 1] 02/6/2014 10:00

Hi Elite

''As technology advances this Co is at risk of being left behind.''

Yes. Maybe they have relied on this one product for way too long.

e.g. INSP, Boiler the size of a washing machine (although much heavier!). Shame Lenigas is with it, his presentation was truly awful at the Investor conference.

I have also requested to visit SNT

That was met with silence too.

I thought the MOD contracts would be transformational for SNT, Its extremely hard to get in, and meet expectations there.

[el1te] 02/6/2014 09:45

PJ,

I have been tracking SNT for about 6 months or so, but the sticking point for me is that the technology has not sufficiently gained market acceptance, and the technology itself doesn't look groundbreaking enough to represent a strong growth opportunity. That does increasingly seem to be reflected in the lack of sales. Can't help but get the feeling that SNT have been too slow and that new technologies (or entirely new boilers) entering the market are more compelling than SNT's. What would your thoughts be regarding that?

El1te

[pj 1] 02/6/2014 08:59

Yump
SNT looks cheap now on a forward P/E.

1/10/2012- Results ''The Group continues to participate in and track a number of significant public sector tender opportunities which, if awarded, are expected to produce revenues in excess of our recent annual turnover.''

This has been repeated in a number of disguises as previously posted.

It also ''appears'' to me that twice now they have referred to 'record order books'which previously never returned increased Sales. My do they pick which RNS to put this figure out with, why not publish it with all?

The 'Sales Pipeline' does not seem worth the paper is written on.There seems little correlation between this, Sales and the Order Book. Maybe Directors like to dissolve themselves for the facts and hide behind whatever 'facts' are available?
Despite claiming twice over the last 2 years that Sales were developing to 2nd half weighted they noW are not? or they have not? or they are returning to 1st HY weighted? Lumpy order book at best imo

The company has had opportunity to answer these questions. To date it has not.

They have a great product and have opened many doors. However, do they keep them open. Why no more County Council wins? These things should breed themselves.

As technology advances this Co is at risk of being left behind.

I still have my small holding here, but imo this Co is on a Forward P/E of 10 for a reason

The Market does not trust it.

IMO.

IF the Co bother to respond I shall let you know

PJ

[yump] 02/6/2014 08:26

Fortunately my investments do not get selected on the basis of cliched assessments.

A p/e of 10 on a following year forecast, where this year's delays get included seems a reasonable risk.

Subject to figuring out how many times management have promised something and not delivered. Which is of course different from how many times investors have expected something which has not turned out as they expected or hoped for.

[rathkum] 30/5/2014 08:56

This sort of companies are just too risky to be investing. It's jam tomorrow.

[yump] 29/5/2014 15:23

PJ1

Haven't been in here for very long, so not as familiar with the history, so by the sound of it taking statements at face value isn't wise. Will have to dig a lot more before doing any topping up by the look of it.

Clearly whatever the profit figures show this year or next, if there's no revenue traction then its not a growth share. Quite how long its worth holding something that's potentially a growth share, but not growing, at a lowish p/e I haven't yet figured out.

I gave up taking any notice of sales pipeline statements on any shares years ago - they are at best ambiguous and a total waste of time. Unless you actually sit in the sales meetings and really know what is being measured.

[pj 1] 29/5/2014 13:51

If sales had been delayed then why no increase to the order book, why no increase to the sales pipeline with x2 extra salesmen?

Too much rhetoric

[pj 1] 29/5/2014 13:40

Plus
11/2/14 they refer to 'Sales leads at all time highs'
when sales pipeline = £6.6m

Clearly not!!!!!

[pj 1] 29/5/2014 13:35

Constructive comments please.......

Over the last 4 years cash has roughly remained level.

The damn Sales pipeline (statistics, damned statistics and bloody lies) inc HY figures has gone , from 2011 to date 7.7,9.5,8.7,6.3,6.2,6.6,5.8. clearly at a low of 5.8m
Conversion rate appears to be (2.47/8.7 =28%, 2.47/7.7=32%) say 30%

The Order book mentioned today was also mentioned at Results 2013 as a record £ 0.5m, against a then reduced sales pipeline of £6.2m (am I too cynical?)and is again mentioned again against the reduced sales pipeline.

But, However....

They state......''alongside the potential for new revenue sources from the new product and from our overseas distribution network as well as the growth in the existing sales pipeline''

What Growth in the existing sales pipeline?? Its as low as it has ever been!

Surely if there was growth then the order book would be higher, at least when added to the sales pipeline.

But it is not! The order book is exactly the same with a reduced Sales pipeline with a circa 30% conversion.

2015 figures are at risk imo

Thoughts?

[goliard] 29/5/2014 11:56

Agree with the above. Another example of failing to deliver. I sold out a while ago when they issued their first profit warning as it just seemed like they were failing to to monetise the technology. If it really is as good as they say then either their sales platform is terrible, or there is another reason why customers are not flocking to them. I also get very worried when companies start talking about increasing their distributor list rather than increasing sales!

[pj 1] 29/5/2014 09:42

They hide behind 'typically 18 months' from enquiry to conversion, from memory.

Smokescreen..

[jojaken] 29/5/2014 09:37

Agreed Pugugly, I should have added !! after the Westhouse's buy rating. After all it was only about six months ago they raised it from 50 to 60p!

[pugugly] 29/5/2014 09:33

jojaken:> Pull the other one !!! - Not you but Westhouse !!

Possibly a DCB in progress but as PJ1 suggests Pipeline = Quote not conversion - Key factors are conversion %ages by value and time to conversion -

I cannot remember ever having seen these critical measurements -

Anyone know what they are ??

[jojaken] 29/5/2014 09:22

Westhouse Securities have cut their price target but only to 50p from 60p on this morning's results. However, given the collapse in the share price they have maintained their buy rating.

[pj 1] 29/5/2014 08:54

It also appears, although I need to look closer that this ridiculous Sales Pipeline hey keep quoting as an important KPI and indicator of future growth, is in fact worth Jack S ..t and is just a smoke screen

They still quote it today but what does it mean, certainly not an indicator of Sales is it?

[pj 1] 29/5/2014 08:31

Competition beating them is my concern, Gas will be used up by the time this CO pulls its finger out

[pugugly] 29/5/2014 08:26

yump:> Revisiting after the trading update. I am afraid I take a slightly more negative view than yourself about the message - Too often delayed turns out to be not progressed (i.e. Cancelled) Salemen never ever in my experience admit to having lost an order - they are always confident it will arrive.

imo dividend estimates by Westhouse for 2014 &2015 now out.

The BIG question is will the technology ever become profitable for shareholders or will it end up as a footnote in history - Even odds now (imo)possibly even shorter Not one for WAO (Widows and orphans)

[pj 1] 29/5/2014 08:24

Not digested it fully until im on my PC

Initial reaction

Serial Disappointers, Managemnet failing to deliver yet again, excuses excuses

[yump] 29/5/2014 07:18

Looks like there'll be a chance to get some of these at 20p ish again, as folk will look at the specific year end figures, not the actual business progress, ignoring that its a timing issue with no contract cancellations. 'Nobody likes lumpy'. ie. the following year it could well be on a p/e of less than 10 at 20p.

[pj 1] 03/3/2014 14:46

Dont laugh !

Have bought a few back, mainly due to ''I am also delighted that we were awarded two tenders by local authorities''.

Following the LCC Contract.

[yump] 03/3/2014 09:38

Might have !

I was looking over my portfolio and decided that I had too many tech. 'growth' stocks (1/2 of which don't seem to be growing) and no industrials. I guess SNT could be viewed as tech, but at least its involved in things that make nice noises and smells. Yes I prefer to watch a stationary steam train, to using a mobile ;-)

[pj 1] 03/3/2014 09:25

So you bought mine?

Maybe asking for them back soon..! :-//

[yump] 03/3/2014 09:19

Have I got my calcs right - that means they've done about 2/3 of the first half revenue already ? (Bought in here recently after drop back to 30p ish.)

[aim_trader] 13/2/2014 09:25

"Sabien Technology shares are "substantially undervalued", says Westhouse"

"It comes after the boiler efficiency specialist released positive interim results for the six months to December 31.
The company anticipates the group's full year trading performance will be in line with management expectations, as a higher proportion of salesscheduled for the second half.
Westhouse lifted its target price to 60p, from 50p, which is now almost double the market price (31p), and that reflects the kind of upside the broker sees in the share"