Ruffer Investment Share Discussion Threads

[lambeater] 21/2/2021 18:01

Personally I was hoping for a pure hedge: A bitcoin purchase that was left to run possibly with a stop below the entry price. However what has transpired is a hedge that has partially morphed into a trade. It is true that you can interpret that trade as a hedge against the price crashing but it is not a pure hedge against collapsing currencies. In summary however, I feel it was a bold and timely initial purchase and I am grateful to Alexander Chartres for that.

[williamcooper104] 20/2/2021 18:53

I think they recovered their initial investment so the holding now is all unrealised profit So holding prior to BTC means it's now a question of how much or little gravy It's not a huge position - from memory no more than 200-300bps of NAV

[zeroid] 20/2/2021 16:18

Any long term holders (holding since before the bitcoin investment) concerned about what will happen to the share price here if bitcoin should crash?

[elmfield] 08/2/2021 19:14

So we are still holding,
Good day for us today then.
Bit of excitement anyway,😂

[lambeater] 08/2/2021 19:10

From Citywire: "Ruffer... made its own ‘speculative trade’ after it bought a £550m position in bitcoin as an uncorrelated inflation hedge. It has since taken out its original investment in profit after the bet more than doubled, but has kept the gains held in the cryptocurrency."
Understandable enough - but not a pure hedge.

[elmfield] 07/2/2021 18:44

Banks are a hedge. Some banks in a year or two could be substantially
higher than now.

[lambeater] 07/2/2021 18:29

I agree with you Hootza that it would be better as a hedge rather than a speculative trade. I'm not sure what to believe regarding their foray into Bitcoin, whether it's a hedge or a trade. However the share price made new highs on Friday while Bitcoin rose from its recent sell off so possibly that supports the notion that they do still hold a long position of magnitude in the cryptocurrency. Meanwhile they need their heads examining over some of their stock holdings: Lloyds, Barclays and Nat West for example although those were good gainers on Friday and possibly contributed to RICA closing at a new high of 275p.

[hootza616] 06/2/2021 10:02

Very disappointed this wasn't a long term investment. BTC now at 40k and will do nothing but increase in value.I thought they had understood BTC but I was wrong. I have made £600 here since mid December and would have made £7000 if I had put this money in ARB instead.

[lambeater] 02/2/2021 20:54

I thought they opened the position as a long term hedge rather than a short term trade. Maybe they morphed from a hedge to a trade when they saw the extent and rapidity of the gains. If they bought end Nov at say 18,000 and they made over 100 pc, as this article says, then they might have sold at around 37-38,000. An incredible trade if it's true, bearing in mind also that the current price of 35,600 is below their sell price.

[elmfield] 02/2/2021 18:06

£540 million profit.
Can that be true?
I guess that is over all the ruffer funds.
Guess they will fill us in?

[spoole5] 02/2/2021 10:57

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/news/city-firm-ruffer-banks-750m-profit-bitcoin-bet/

[spoole5] 31/1/2021 00:48

All Ruffer know is it's going up, which means they can profit short term. It is symptomatic of the asset bubbles being created, we all know how they end. Hopefully they won't be the last one in the pyramid!

[pvb] 30/1/2021 23:54

...All this activity on here is a mite disconcerting. ;-)

[williamcooper104] 30/1/2021 23:17

But in a diverse portfolio seeking inflation protection there's a role for BTC (IMO) If central banks ever properly engage in MMT (and the fed has started literally printing money) then BTC has to soar in value - so perhaps it gives protection against the tail risk of very high inflation, especially when this comes from explicit money printing - the very high inflation protection assets are few, equities will mostly blow up and commerical property values will likely too

[williamcooper104] 30/1/2021 23:14

What we don't know is whether BTC is really an epic risk on trade, that will thus blow up if the wider tech/SPAC bubble bursts or actual digital gold (with a lot more vol of course) It's been around 10 years, millennials love it, so don't see it crashing out of existence - though of course it could very well crash

[slicethepie] 30/1/2021 17:37

Do you really think that Ruffer would take such a position in an asset without a massive amount of research. The reputational risk being in a position that you describe as a bubble is massive if it goes wrong.

[spoole5] 30/1/2021 12:42

This bubble will pop eventually and the last in will be destroyed. Hopefully rica will be out by then with a profit. Awaiting a GME disclosure any day now.

[williamcooper104] 29/1/2021 23:59

It's not cleverest Brian's but as I've learnt - listen to the kids Any high pe/growth stock is about the future and your kids know more another that than you do (and it's fun getting their pocket money intro the market)

[williamcooper104] 29/1/2021 23:55

It's as simple as - if the next generation belief it's gold - then it's gold (With of course a lot more vol - but that's the fun)

[slicethepie] 29/1/2021 23:27

I agree. I always look to where the cleverest brains are attracted and have attended some defi conferences. It is frightening to see how many phd mathematicians / computer etc are working on defi projects. Whilst Bitcoin trading is for the flashy red braced crowd the geeks are busy working on amazing projects utilising the tech behind this phenomenon. Sadly for me it is beyond my degree level maths and age to fully understand where this goes but convinced this will be mainstream.

[hootza616] 29/1/2021 23:18

Well at least I have given some life to this thread. Keep it up. Nice to hear seasoned investors views.My belief is BTC will be the gold for the next generation, it's inevitable.Ignore it at your own risk.

[slicethepie] 29/1/2021 23:05

That's why Ruffer bought it must be losing their marbles! I tend to believe their analytic skills.

[slicethepie] 29/1/2021 23:03

Not convinced about arb, I trade it but it is only a play on the Bitcoin price.

[spoole5] 29/1/2021 23:00

The greater fool theory at play! Will never be a store of value and will never be a currency.

[slicethepie] 29/1/2021 22:58

Yes is is available in isa and Sipp I own it in both