Ruffer Investment Company Limited Monthly Investment Report - November 2024

RNS Number : 7015P

Ruffer Investment Company Limited

12 December 2024

 

12 December 2024

RUFFER INVESTMENT COMPANY LIMITED

(a closed-ended investment company incorporated in Guernsey with registration number 41966)

(the "Company")

 

Attached is a link to the Monthly Investment Report for November 2024:

http://www.rns-pdf.londonstockexchange.com/rns/7015P_1-2024-12-11.pdf

On 5 November 1605 Guy Fawkes and his fellow conspirators famously attempted, and failed, to blow-up Parliament - an event now celebrated in the UK with bonfires and fireworks. Just 419 years later, on the same day this year, is it possible that Donald Trump succeeded in achieving drastic regime change (in America) where Guy Fawkes failed and, if so, how might Americans commemorate this event in the years to come?

 

Frivolity aside, whatever the longer-term outcomes, Trump's election sweep dominated the month. The US stock market celebrated immediately, with the S&P 500 up almost 6%, more than wiping out October's losses and ending the month at an all-time high. Investments directly linked to the new administration soared - since the election, both Tesla and Bitcoin have risen over 40%. The US dollar also strengthened as talk of US 'exceptionalism' hit a crescendo, and bond yields, which rose sharply before the election, eased back after Scott Bessent was proposed as Treasury Secretary, instead of some of the more unconventional suggestions.

 

The bond market reaction is probably the most interesting. Will we see the return of bond vigilantes, unheard of for almost 40 years, as the Trump administration looks to both cut taxes and fund a record fiscal deficit? US bond issuance looks set to exceed 10% of GDP for every year of the Trump presidency, a peacetime record unless Elon Musk's 'Department of Government Efficiency' can deliver some impressive savings. However, the electoral coalition that just returned Donald Trump to power is a significant beneficiary of the 60% of Federal outlays the government transfers each year to pensioners and lower income households, making such cuts politically unlikely.

 

The Ruffer portfolio was broadly flat in November. It stumbled initially as the US stock market jumped, credit spreads tightened and gold, somewhat surprisingly, sold off, but then recovered as gold and the yen rallied into the month end. Overall, our equity exposure was unsurprisingly the largest positive contributor to performance, helped by some tactical additions around the election. This resilience, in the face of short-term events that were hardly in accord with our cautious view on markets, reflects the improved balance in our portfolios.

 

With cash equities this year averaging 25%-30% of the portfolio, we currently remain biased more towards 'protection'. This is similar to our positioning in 2007 during the run up to the global financial crisis. Like then, we believe now is not the time to dial down protection. The US stock market looks to us both dangerously expensive and highly concentrated - neither a good sign for future returns. Whilst the return of Donald Trump to the White House - this time with the means to implement his radical ideas - suggests to us market risks are rising, not falling. Today, with both the US stock market and retail investor optimism at all-time highs, backed by record inflows to US equities, we believe the sensible option is a balanced portfolio, but one focused more on fear than greed.

 

Enquiries:

Sanne Fund Services (Guernsey) Limited

Company Secretary

Nicole Liebenberg

DDI: [phone]

Email: [e-mail]

LEI: 21380068AHZKY7MKNO47

This information is provided by RNS, the news service of the London Stock Exchange. RNS is approved by the Financial Conduct Authority to act as a Primary Information Provider in the United Kingdom. Terms and conditions relating to the use and distribution of this information may apply. For further information, please contact [e-mail] or visit www.rns.com.

RNS may use your IP address to confirm compliance with the terms and conditions, to analyse how you engage with the information contained in this communication, and to share such analysis on an anonymised basis with others as part of our commercial services. For further information about how RNS and the London Stock Exchange use the personal data you provide us, please see our Privacy Policy.

 

END

 

 

DOCUASNRSVUUAAA