Rpc Share Discussion Threads

[cashcow5] 12/9/2018 11:57

"either they are right and that will be reflected in reported cashflows or they are not and RPC will continue its 25-year record of profit and dividend growth"

I agree 100% Jeffian but if, hypothetically, Northern Trust are indeed proved right (and let's face it none of us have any idea right now!) then their "poison" will cease to be poison and those fundamental reasons will instantly become considerably less attractive.

[beckers2008] 12/9/2018 11:54

GLG Partners LP increased short position slightly to 0.56% on the 10th September.
Total short position increased to 9.37%

Those who took my advice and sold into the spike on the 10th can now sit on the sidelines with hopefully profits intact, I was not so fortunate taking profits at 7.70 a few weeks ago, but happy with a profit none the less.

Let's hope the Americans can get this over the line, else this will go sub £6.00.
Interesting an American fund has just taken a long position, can the Americans get RPC on the cheap.

[jeffian] 12/9/2018 10:35

#2098,

A strategy for traders, not investors. If the fundamental reasons I invested hold good, then I stick with it through short term fluctuations. It is notoriously difficult to time your trades through peaks and troughs and all the good shares I have been 'bullied' out of have gone on upwards in the longer term. Northern Trust can continue to seep their poison into the market but at some point the truth will be revealed - either they are right and that will be reflected in reported cashflows or they are not and RPC will continue its 25-year record of profit and dividend growth.

[dr_smith] 12/9/2018 10:18

ali47fish
It's not clear to me whether the offers were initiated by the 2 co's or if they were responding to overtures by BOD, as the former is likely to be treated with more warmth by bidders.
If either were going to decline, they would likely do so quite quickly - unless they need say to have a shareholders meeting.
If one buyer drops out that reduces chance of a good premium, but would still expect a premium from remaing bidder.
SP will likely trickle down on no news approaching key date as market will have same thought as your good self.
It's a hard one to call and don't think there is right decision, perhaps go with the one you can live with even if goes different to your expectations.
Considering the many differing possible scenarios, the share price is quite steady, so I take that as good, because it implies there is no hidden news/progress reports we are missing out on.
All IMO. :-)
Dave

[cashcow5] 12/9/2018 09:56

without wishing to state the obvious there are only two possible outcomes between now and the deadline for bids. One will send the share price up further and the other will bring it down sharply.

You either follow the Norther Trust line of thinking or the more bullish one.

I have no idea which it is going to be so as I already had too many eggs in one basket, I took the opportunity to get out on Monday morning. I will continue watching and may buy back in between now and then, although it would be to a lesser extent.

Crunch time ahead - very interesting!

[ali47fish] 12/9/2018 09:24

lets talk about strategy fo investors- if the bidders dont come forward with an offer by the 7th, I am minded to sell because that is what always happens with the share price retracing? do people here agree?

[phillis] 11/9/2018 11:16

RPC wont drop their trousers until an indicative price has been agreed

[sogoesit] 11/9/2018 11:09

However, given Northern Trust's analysis, it would be beyond belief that a buyer would not first seek to understand those issues in discussions with the company.
Looking at the company's contending analysis if not looking at "some of the books" would be in order before wasting anyone's time and money.

[squidsgone] 11/9/2018 11:08

Yes, but the point remains the same .... why have preliminary discussions if you were averse to DD.

[phillis] 11/9/2018 10:19

Squids
Not quite
"preliminary discussions"

DD ( looking at the books) does not take place until general agreement on price

[oli12] 11/9/2018 10:19

Northern Trusts criticism of RPC is interesting in itself. It’s great they are looking out for all the investors in RPC by being so vocal about the apparent creativity ref accounting practices.

[squidsgone] 11/9/2018 10:10

Well, with two PE firms taking a detailed look at the books, Northern Trust are about become either hero or laughing stock. Makes you wonder why RPC would invite such close inspection if it was likely to be the former.

[dr_smith] 10/9/2018 21:23

Jeffian, Bouleversee.
Yes, pain to lose a trusted long termer.
On flip side, hopefully we will get a fair/good price.
On occasion share price can be surpressed when Jonny come lately comes in to rob your margin, or a share issue to disolve you long term awaited profits, so count your blessings.

Cashcow5 .
Well done on calling near top today.
Virtually impossible to call timing right on these takeovers...or prospective takeovers, but personally awaiting developments ftb.

[oli12] 10/9/2018 18:01

The PE funds named in the RNS. Sorry maybe I misunderstood your question.

[cashcow5] 10/9/2018 17:58

But do be aware that if there is no offer forthcoming by 8th Oct (irrespective of the reason), the bears will seize on this as bad news and the downward spiral will probably begin again (imo).

I took profits today at around 8.50 so i’m now likely to be out for the foreseeable future.

Quite relieved not to have to worry either way after a stressful year!

[riverman77] 10/9/2018 17:50

This is slightly frustrating for me personally as I was on the cusp of buying back in here, but good to see the shorters will be feeling the pain. I always saw this as a quality company with the sell off entirely driven by sentiment and a dubious analyst trying to make a name for himself. Just debating whether to buy as surely any offer will be well ahead of current price.

[ali47fish] 10/9/2018 17:04

oli what pe funds

[jeffian] 10/9/2018 14:59

Quite a lot of comment (including broker notes) on FT Alphaville this morning.

The journalists are a bit cynical that this is a 'manipulation' following on from Standard Life talking up bid possibilities a few weeks ago and warn that the bears will get their teeth into it again if a bid does not materialise. Northern Trust maintain their story that RPC will run out of puff without a constant stream of acquisitions and recommend selling into the current rise. My own view is that RPC's best defence is not to court bids - real or imagined - but go on increasing earnings and dividends.

[oli12] 10/9/2018 13:39

Well the PE funds will be happy - up 17% on the day (at time of writing) however still down YTD.

[jeffian] 10/9/2018 11:59

That's the thing, b, it takes ages finding the 'right' share so being forced to find another is a real pain.
I doubt Private Equity buyers would offer a share alternative but they may a Loan Note option which would give you the ability to spread any gain over subsequent years to take advantage of the annual CGT allowance. Unfortunately, (well, fortunately, I suppose!) that wouldn't help me much.

[bouleversee] 10/9/2018 11:48

I couldn't agree more, Jeffian. I am in exactly the same position and even more hacked off because I only acquired RPC because they took over British Polythene which had done very well for me and I don't think the share price is back to BPI's value then. Haven't done the sums yet; complicated by rights issue and 2 top ups subsequently.

I rather hope they don't get taken over or if they do it will be for shares rather than cash (assuming the predator is OK; I know nothing about either of those mentioned) as I really don't know what to do with cash at the moment. I have a fair bit of cash doing nothing in my equity ISA which is where my RPC shares are also but nothing grabs me at present and I don't have time for research.

[jeffian] 10/9/2018 10:44

RPC is my second largest holding so I won't pretend today's news hasn't had a very pleasing effect on my portfolio.....so why am I so hacked off? Well I operate a buy-and-hold policy which involves seeking out 'value' stocks that grow revenues, profits and dividends and then holding them almost for ever (other things being equal). RPC absolutely fitted the bill for me and has done very well over the years until the Northern Trust 'raid' upset the applecart, but I felt this would blow over and fully anticipate that growth in earnings and dividends will continue. Given the cr@p they've had to take recently, I fully understand why the Board might wish to continue developing the company away from the public gaze, but I feel angry that (if it goes ahead) I will be forced out of my holding and future prospects whilst realising substantial gains which can't all be sheltered. Exactly the same thing happened to me with Alliance Unichem, Stephano Pessina's excellent healthcare company which grew to take over Boots and Walmart's pharmacy business but went private because it didn't feel the market would understand what it was doing or support it, only to relist later at a much higher figure. I bet that's exactly what the Private equity funds want to do here and even if you're pleased with what you're offered now, you come to regret it in a few years when it relists. Grrrr!

[mauricemonkey] 10/9/2018 10:30

Indeed, this was around £10 less than a year ago so we’ve got to be thinking that area as a starting point surely?

[oli12] 10/9/2018 10:17

It seems in the event of a LOW offer this would still be significantly above the current share price when comparing to recent buy outs and research notes. Let’s see what happens - despite the rise today the share price is still well below a price many would we willing to sell for.