Rpc Share Discussion Threads

[phillis] 02/10/2018 12:44

Jeff
Your argument doesnt hold up

The BOD signalled it was unhappy with life in the public sector
Next thing we hear is that they are in discussions with PE

These instis dont waste time and money chasing dreams, neither would any BOD invite interest just to support the price
What happens if they dont go ahead - the share price will collapse
What kind of responsible strategy is that?
As for Musk, he has just shown himself to be an irresponsible idiot - look where it has got him!

[jeffian] 02/10/2018 12:35

Hmmm. Tell that to Elon Musk. A putative 'bid' is a classic way to support the share price (in the short term at least). When the share was in freefall, it was the Standard Life 'rumour' that first stabilised it; then we had the RNS that "preliminary discussions are taking place" from the board. Nothing from either supposed 'interested party'. Yes, the company certainly seems to have signalled that it is 'in play' but I am still not convinced this is anything other than a fishing expedition and will not be surprised if it fizzles out on 8/10.

[phillis] 02/10/2018 10:36

Boards dont have detailed discussions unless they are seriously interested in selling out

[jeffian] 02/10/2018 10:10

I agree, Oli12. The 'bid' is a distraction and the sooner it's all over and management gets back to concentrating on the fundamentals, the better. Sure, if the PE 'interest' doesn't result in an offer, the share price is likely to fall back short term but in the longer term what supports it is growing profits and dividends, which is what RPC have been able to do for a very long time.

[oli12] 02/10/2018 09:48

Irrespective of the ‘interest̵7; here from the PE groups, RPC’s stock price should be higher when one looks at the wider markets and current stock valuations. There is some long term value here, they just need a change in strategy, to win over investors - the vision 2020 is stale, the approach of paying a premium to acquire growth exhausted and the recent £100m share buyback (at a higher level than the current SP) a waste of money and indicative that management needs a refreshed approach here.

[phillis] 01/10/2018 20:43

Due Diligence
Private Equity

[ali47fish] 01/10/2018 20:20

phillis- who is dd and waht's PE!

[phishflap] 01/10/2018 14:13

Jw121
Get off your phone and back in print

[phillis] 01/10/2018 14:09

If Oct 8 is D-day then DD has been going on for some time
No announcement has yet been made that the parties have withdrawn
Given that PE doesnt get many opportunities to buy world leading companies with a market cap in excess of £3bn the odds are on a firm recommended offer being made in my view
The trading statement will no doubt be couched in such a way as to support the idea that the offer price is a good one

If no offer is made it will be because the Non Execs dont think they should recommend it or because DD has found something that has put the buyers off

[squidsgone] 01/10/2018 13:53

If we assume an initial bid is forthcoming - anyone care to punt at the offer price?

[jw121] 01/10/2018 13:38

I think we are pretty much in agreement, just that i wrote firm offer instead of indicative (apologies for the mis-use of terminology). Either way this period has been for the parties to determine if their initial interest is to progress to offer stage. Or are you of the opinion that indicative offers have already been made?

[phillis] 01/10/2018 12:43

twaddle
firm offers with financing are not made without extensive due diligence
the go ahead for DD is given when indicative price is acceptable

[jw121] 01/10/2018 12:39

I really don't think that DD is taking place. DD would only commence upon a bid being accepted by the shareholders. I assume/believe that as this is a management led buy out (fed up with investors and city in general stopping the vision 2020 strategy), this period is one where the management team will be presenting the investment case to the prospective buyers. The prospective buyers, having expressed interest, during the initial 'fireside chat' will then have then either submit firms offers or pull out. The reason why i think a bid will be forthcoming is that the management team would need to do a particularly bad job in their investment rationale presentations for both parties to decide to no longer proceed on from their initial interest

[phillis] 01/10/2018 11:28

the RNS announcing the interest was dated 10 September

DD takes a minimum of 7-8 weeks (probably more given the international spread of operations) and you have to take into account that firm financing of in excess of £3bn also takes some arranging

It seems certain then that discussions have been taking place for some time given the 8 October deadline and that the leak prompted the announcement
What isn't clear is whether this is a management led buy out in which case the Non Execs will have to take the responsibility for a recommendation
If this is a no go then the BOD will need to announce before 8 Oct

[squidsgone] 01/10/2018 09:18

jw
The bidders would have been aware, but would still like to have a closer look to dispel or confirm any doubts. The RPC quarterly update I'm sure will include a summary initial response to any proposed bid which I expect to be publicised prior to c.o.p on the 8th (if there is to be any, that is!).

[jw121] 30/9/2018 23:15

I am holding. The bidders would have been fully aware of the NT analysis prior to engaging in this process. So my view is why would they be involved in the first place if they had any doubts, concerns, worries etc about the underlying performance of the business and it's ability to generate positive free cash flows. RPC cancelled their trading update due at the end of September and instead have replaced it with a quarterly trading statement on the 8th of October (out of memory). I suspect this is when they will provide an update on what bids if any have been received. I expect this update to be positive

[dr_smith] 30/9/2018 09:16

ali - Have I not done exactly that?
Not even a thank-you or acknowledgement for my response to your post?

[ali47fish] 30/9/2018 08:51

it would be more helpful if more posters say what they intend to do and why, that way others can benefit - more info on arguments as to yes or ney would be more helpful!

[dr_smith] 29/9/2018 18:00

Ali - I think all will think the same and there won't be a window to change your mind once next salient news is out.
If a LTH takes chance of staying in and price reverts with no bid, it will take time to climb back to current level, during which time even an investor with LTH seeing good prospects for co will be better off selling pre-dip and possibly re-buying post dip.

But then someone with favourable view will also see a bid a possibility - and even at higher than current share price levels, so money to be made by staying in.

The share price (now) is typically the market median position of risk/gain of the possible outcomes. I don't think there is a "right" action, only one that you choose and you can live with if your guess is wrong.

IMO :-)

I am sticking for now, based on gut instinct...or is it when in doubt do nowt. ;-)

[squidsgone] 29/9/2018 17:37

Ali,If no bids I think you will be lucky for the pre-announcement share price to hold, will head south from that I fear. The thoughts will be that NT were right after all.

[ali47fish] 29/9/2018 16:57

if let's say by the 7th of october no offer is forthcoming-my experienc of other takeovers, most likely the bid will fall- surely these companies bidding should have had ample time to make up their minds-as an investor if that's the senario, i want to take a tranche with some profits instead of reverting to the price pre anooucement which for me was in the red- any insightful comments welcome!

[squidsgone] 29/9/2018 16:25

I would even speculate that only when the market is seen to react to any disengagement (eg. through leakage) then the co would issue a notice. I am personally comforted that with so many speculative funds in here at the moment, (and I'm sure with each digging excessively for any hint of disengagement - to the extent that the principal negotiators and advisors will be known and their movements well monitored), that the potential acquirers are still engaged.Just my thoughts

[dr_smith] 28/9/2018 17:30

My wording may be sloppy. What I was trying to say is, if bidder decides deal is not for them, out of politeness rather than legal compulsion, they may say so sooner rather than later (e.g. before deadline with implicit lapse).

[jeffian] 28/9/2018 17:12

The "legal requirements" are covered by the Takeover Code. Once an offer - or potential offer - is disclosed, there is a limited time to 'put up or shut up' -

"2.6 TIMING FOLLOWING A POSSIBLE OFFER ANNOUNCEMENT
(a) Subject to Rule 2.6(b), by not later than 5.00 pm on the 28th day following the date of the announcement in which it is first identified, or by not later than any extended deadline, a potential offeror must either:
(i) announce a firm intention to make an offer in accordance with Rule 2.7; or
(ii) announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 applies,
unless the Panel has consented to an extension of the deadline."

RPC themselves made reference to this in the announcement and included a deadline of 5pm on 8 October.

I'm not holding my breath.

[dr_smith] 28/9/2018 16:43

I am not aware of a requirement, so no legal "need", but have noticed such statements in past. Lots of BOD level and staff, of both bidding and target co spend time on such proposals and staff have concerns about their futures and it effects the normal operation of the business so it is normal between them not to waste each others time and energy, but conduct business in a friendly conducive manner out of mutual respect rather than corporate/regulatory requirement. IME.