Shell Share Discussion Threads

[waldron] 06/5/2020 17:42

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 28.98 -6.43%
Gasoline NYMEX 0.87 -5.09%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.19 -5.23%
WTI 24.793 USD -10.20%


FTSE 100
5,853.76 +0.07%
Dow Jones
23,830.25 -0.22%
CAC 40
4,433.38 -1.11%
SBF 120
3,509.17 -1.00%
Euro STOXX 50
2,843.76 -1.15%
DAX
10,606.2 -1.15%
Ftse Mib
17,167.38 -1.27%



Eni
8.423 -3.04%


Total
32.2 -2.16%

Engie
9.578 +0.15%


Bp
313.7 -1.63%

Vodafone
112.58 +0.09%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,285.8 -3.73%



Royal Dutch Shell B
1,230.6 -4.11%

[waldron] 05/5/2020 17:54

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 30.35 +11.58%
Gasoline NYMEX 0.90 +7.61%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.35 +5.25%
WTI 26.012 USD +10.00%


FTSE 100
5,849.42 +1.66%
Dow Jones
24,162.84 +1.74%
CAC 40
4,483.13 +2.40%
SBF 120
3,544.63 +2.47%
Euro STOXX 50
2,875.91 +2.25%
DAX
10,729.46 +2.51%
Ftse Mib
17,365.86 +1.94%


Eni
8.687 +5.80%



Total
32.91 +7.94%



Engie
9.564 +1.27%



Bp
318.9 +6.09%

Vodafone
112.48 +2.57%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,335.6 +5.55%



Royal Dutch Shell B
1,283.4 +5.06%

[waldron] 04/5/2020 17:27

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 26.63 +0.72%
Gasoline NYMEX 0.80 +1.44%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.20 +3.00%
WTI 22.206 USD +3.95%


FTSE 100
5,753.78 -0.16%
Dow Jones
23,537.96 -0.78%
CAC 40
4,378.23 -4.24%
SBF 120
3,459.11 -4.19%
Euro STOXX 50
2,812.58 -3.94%
DAX
10,466.8 -3.64%
Ftse Mib
17,075.24 -3.48%


Eni
8.211 -5.77%




Total
30.49 -7.18%



Engie
9.444 -4.64%



Bp
300.6 +0.59%

Vodafone
109.66 -0.65%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,265.4 +2.74%


Royal Dutch Shell B
1,221.6 +1.80%

[la forge] 04/5/2020 12:30

Four of the UK’s 10 biggest dividend payers have cut or frozen payments: will the rest follow suit?
by Kyle Caldwell from Money Observer | 4th May 2020 09:45

We review whether the other big six income stocks will join Royal Dutch Shell and UK banks in cutting or suspending dividend payments.

Royal Dutch Shell has become the fourth member of last year’s top 10 UK dividend payers to reduce income payments to UK investors.

The oil major cut its dividend for the first time since the Second World War in a bid to put the business on a more resilient footing, following collapse in the oil price following the outbreak of coronavirus.

Its decision to cut the dividend was undoubtedly a difficult decision to make; however, that decision was taken out of the hands of management at fellow top-10 dividend payers HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group.

The country’s biggest banks, in a series of co-ordinated statements at the start of April, announced that they would temporarily suspend dividend payments and share buybacks for both their 2019 and 2020 financial years, following talks with the Bank of England. The suspensions were made to put banks in a better position to support the economy during the current uncertain climate.

Will the other six members of the top 10 UK dividend payers, which accounted for 64% of total dividends for the UK market in 2019, follow suit?

Of the top three payers, Royal Dutch Shell and HSBC will be leaving income investors feeling short-changed in 2020, but the same cannot be said for BP.

The oil major, which updated the market two days before Royal Dutch Shell announced its cut, has raised its dividend for the first quarter of the year to 10.5 cents a share, up from 10.25 cents a share. It did so against the backdrop of a slump in its underlying profits, down by two-thirds in the first quarter of 2020 versus the same quarter a year earlier. The second quarter payment, though, is far from guaranteed. Its dividend yield is just over 10%.

Also providing recent market update was GlaxoSmithKline, the sixth biggest dividend payer in 2019. It has opted to keep its dividend payment flat at 19p per share for the first quarter. Its dividend yield is 4.5%.

Fellow pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca, the ninth biggest UK income payer in 2019, has a lower dividend yield of just under 3%, but is viewed as being stable as the firm has produced slow and steady dividend growth over the past decade.

Another top 10 member expected to retain dividend payments is British American Tobacco. Being highly cash-generative, tobacco companies tend to pay reliable dividends. In a recent statement the firm was bullish, stating there has been little impact on consumer demand for its products following coronavirus. As a result, the firm said its dividend will grow in sterling terms.

Elsewhere, the two mining members of the top 10 are continuing to pay dividends in the short term: Rio Tinto and BHP Group. Mining, of course, is a highly cyclical sector, so there are serious question markets over whether dividends will be maintained. But in 2019 the sector produced the greatest source of dividend growth, with both Rio Tinto and BHP Group paying special dividends, having sold assets and strengthened balance sheets over the previous couple of years.

Earlier this year, ahead of coronavirus escalating to a global pandemic, Michael Kempe, chief operating officer at Link Market Services, cautioned that 2020 looked likely to record for the worst dividend growth rate in five years.

This forecast stemmed from the fact that the UK market had become reliant on the ability of mining companies to increase dividend payments as less than half of the 15 highest dividend payers in 2019 announced a higher dividend than in 2018.

He added: “If anything, another strong performance from the mining sector (in 2019) highlights how UK dividend growth is precariously reliant on eye-catching increases from two or three big companies in a highly cyclical industry.

“It’s worth remembering that just four years ago, the mining sector slashed payouts by half to cope with a commodities downturn.”



This article was originally published in our sister magazine Money Observer

[adrian j boris] 04/5/2020 09:17

Editors' Pick|672 views|May 3, 2020,06:00pm EDT
How Investors Should Interpret Shell’s First Dividend Cut In 75 Years
Robert Rapier
Robert RapierSenior Contributor
Energy

Last week Royal Dutch Shell did something that would have been nearly unthinkable at the beginning of this year. The company cut its dividend for the first time in 75 years.

This is remarkable considering the ups and downs of the oil industry of the past few decades. Prices have collapsed many times since then, albeit we have never before seen a major benchmark turn negative.

But the COVID-19 pandemic has hit oil demand in an unprecedented way. A few days ago Bloomberg posted an article showing that energy demand has just dropped by the largest percentage since World War II (which was the last time Shell cut its dividend).

That’s true, but in 1945 global oil demand had yet to reach 10 million barrels per day (BPD). In contrast, COVID-19 has sidelined an estimated 30 million BPD of oil demand. Thus, the global oil industry is coping with the largest demand collapse, by far, in its history.


This demand collapse is impacting both refiners and oil producers. Shell, as an integrated supermajor, is both. Refiners often benefit from falling oil prices, because they generally see margins expand. That’s why an integrated oil company is usually more stable during the ups and downs of oil prices. Upstream (oil and gas production) and downstream (refining) generally perform out of phase with each other, which helps balance out the cycles.

But the current collapse is hitting both ends — oil demand and finished product demand. This creates one of the most challenging economic climates the integrated oil companies have faced — perhaps ever.


Norway’s Equinor previously announced a two-thirds dividend cut, and now Shell has followed. Chevron CVX ’s CEO has publicly stated that the company has enough cash on hand for now to maintain its dividend, but it will also come under increasing pressure as long as oil prices remain depressed.

The oil producers and the refiners will remain under the most pressure, while the integrated companies won’t be far behind. The midstreams — the pipeline companies — are in somewhat better shape. However, they are not immune to the forces impacting the rest of the energy sector, as Plains All American Pipeline showed when they recently announced a distribution cut.

I think investors should heed the underlying warning in Shell’s first dividend cut in most of our lifetimes. Consider the pressure they must have been under not to break their 75 year streak. That is evidence that they see the current crisis unlike others the oil industry has faced in recent decades. They aren’t sure when oil demand will recover.

Thus, investors should be exceedingly cautious in the energy sector for the foreseeable future. This is especially true of oil-weighted producers, and refiners.

Safer bets are the midstreams and natural gas producers. The latter have shown much greater strength than the oil producers, because associated natural gas production is falling as oil producers shut in production. That means natural gas supplies will continue to tighten in the months ahead.

[waldron] 04/5/2020 07:02

Dow futures fall more than 100 points amid concerns over reopening the economy
Published Sun, May 3 20206:03 PM EDTUpdated 3 hours ago
Fred Imbert
@foimbert



Stock futures fell on Sunday night as traders weighed the reopening of the economy along with brewing tensions between China and the U.S.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down by 152 points, pointing to a Monday opening decline of around 147 points. S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures also pointed to losses at the open on Monday for the two indexes.

[waldron] 04/5/2020 06:53

European markets head for lower open as US-China tensions rise over coronavirus
Published Mon, May 4 20201:15 AM EDT
Holly Ellyatt
@HollyEllyatt

Key Points

London’s FTSE is seen opening 30 points lower at 5,725, Germany’s DAX is seen 116 points lower at 10,490, France’s CAC 40 is seen 61 points lower at 4,384 and Italy’s FTSE MIB is seen 195 points lower at 16,921, according to IG.

European stocks look set to follow the negative trend set by their Asian counterparts Monday where markets traded lower in reaction to rising tensions between Washington and Beijing.

[waldron] 03/5/2020 20:52

Global oil demand starts long, uncertain road to recovery
May 3, 2020 3:08 PM ET|About: Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM)|By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor

Oil executives and traders see signs that fuel consumption is starting to recover, but they say it's likely to be a slow, painful process.

"I believe we have seen the bottom," Marco Dunand, co-founder of Mercuria Energy Group, one of the five largest trading houses, told Bloomberg News.

Oil traders say the recovery in demand is likely to take more than a year before it reaches pre-COVID-19 levels of ~100M bbl/day. Some say it may never reach pre-pandemic levels.

One big consumer of fuel, airlines, doesn't expect travel demand to return to 2019 levels for years.

And while the demand decline is past the bottom, it will take time for supply cuts to catch up.

“Globally, we are at the inflection point where we are past the worst for oil demand destruction but not for supply destruction,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director at consultant Petromatrix. “This should help price stabilization.”;

Unsold crude and oil products are likely to accumulate into June and maybe into July.

The rebound is coming first to where COVID-19 started — Wuhan, China, with weekday traffic back at pre-pandemic levels; weekend traffic, though is still depressed.

And in the U.S., refiners saw gasoline demand at 64% of the normal level in the latest seven-day average vs. 55% early last month.

[waldron] 03/5/2020 13:31

Next week might see falls toward strong supports of 13.80 and then 10.67 euros

[dudishes] 03/5/2020 10:16

G'day,

French friends, try not to take offence:-

Short RDSA @ 1502, 20/4/20.

Car not used for a month, when started, battery almost dead, a clue?

Should have done the bizz @ £20, too slow.

It will recover in time, point is when do I close?

Jun 11? Doubt it?

Divi, all large Co's were encouraged, in order to retain balance. Or face a bailout, which public would end up paying?

Quoting experts from various Investment outfits, does not suit. Not really sure of their agendas?

My posn held for now.

[grupo guitarlumber] 03/5/2020 09:41

Mail on Sunday (Midas share tips update): HOLD Shell for now.

[the grumpy old men] 02/5/2020 12:42

Goldman Sachs Has Its Top Oil Stocks to Buy Ahead of a Second-Half Recovery
Lee Jackson
May 2, 2020 6:46 am

The biggest story during the collapse on Wall Street earlier this year was of course the COVID-19 pandemic. This brought on an instant recession with lightning speed. The battle over oil dominance that erupted between Russia and Saudi Arabia over oil production helped to further slash benchmark pricing for West Texas Intermediate and Brent Crude by more than 70% at one point this last week.

The energy sector had another ugly turn recently when the front month oil futures contract for May, that expired in mid-April, actually traded negative, as traders were forced to sell at a loss because those holding contracts on expiration have to take physical delivery. With no storage space available, that brought a torrent of selling with no bids. In this doom and gloom environment, who wants to buy oil stocks now?

The analysts at Goldman Sachs have raised their hands. In a recent report, the analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that the unprecedented drop in demand is giving investors a chance to buy energy stocks at very cheap levels. The team has a list of 24 oil stocks they feel will benefit the most from a recovery. Goldman Sachs even sees oil demand ramping back up by the end of June, and they also see low prices forcing more domestic production shut-ins.

The analysts listed five specific reasons in the research report why investors should be looking at the wounded energy sector now.

Oil prices are at/below cash costs
Shut-in announcements are becoming material
Demand appears to be at trough
Valuation near 25-year lows on Enterprise Value/gross cash invested
The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSEArca: XLE) ETF had risen handily despite bad micro/macro news in recent weeks

We screened the 24 stocks the analysts are recommending for a recovery rebound, and picked five that are Buy rated, and also have retained their dividends.

This is an important metric as Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS-A) slashed the company’s dividend for the first time since World War 2 this week.

Energy stocks have been battered and bruised for longer than most memories can easily recall. And despite the “ESG” theme dominating before the bull market ended, and even with many investors simply refusing to invest in oil companies supposedly at any price, it is almost impossible to fathom that April’s great stock market gains had energy stocks leading the way with the greatest gains. Even after such huge gains, oil and gas stocks may have a place as value stocks beyond acting as value traps.

Chevron

This integrated leader is a safer way for investors looking to get positioned in the energy sector. Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) is a US-based integrated oil and gas company, with worldwide operations in exploration and production, refining and marketing, transportation and petrochemicals. The company sports a sizable dividend, and has a solid place in the sector when it comes to natural gas, and LNG.

Chevron recently became the latest major oil company to slash spending after halting its $5 billion-a-year share buyback and halving spending in the Permian Basin, which means a large decrease in projected output from America’s biggest shale region.

The California-based oil giant said it’s lowering projected 2020 capital spending by 20%, or $4 billion. The Permian will account for the largest single element of that reduction, translating into 125,000 fewer barrels of oil equivalent per day than previously forecast, a quantity equal to about 2.5% of the basin’s total current production.

Currently shareholders are paid a hefty 5.45% dividend, which the analysts feel comfortable will remain at current levels. The Goldman Sachs price target is posted at $89, which compares to a current consensus target across Wall Street of $90.62. The last Chevron trade Thursday was reported at $92 down almost 3%.

ConocoPhillips

This company may offer solid upside potential and just gave investors a massive dividend increase back in February. ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas, and natural gas liquids worldwide.

The company’s portfolio includes resource-rich North American tight oil and oil sands assets; lower-risk legacy assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various international developments; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration.

Conoco posted solid earnings per share for the first quarter of $0.45 which beat consensus. Many analysts see the delta on lagged realizations, lower operating expenses and taxes as solid positives. Shut-in plans are increased for May and expanded to June as a response to the oil price collapse.

Investors are paid a sensible 3.98% dividend. The Goldman Sachs price target for the company is $38, which compares to the Wall Street consensus price target of $46.83. ConocoPhillips was last seen Thursday at $42.10.



Goldman Sachs Has Its Top Oil Stocks to Buy Ahead of a Second-Half Recovery
Lee Jackson
May 2, 2020 6:46 am

EOG Resources

This leading energy company is another top pick across Wall Street. EOG Resources, Inc. (NYSE: EOG) is one of the largest independent exploration and production companies operating in the United States, Canada, Trinidad, the United Kingdom and China.

Despite some rough going over the last quarter, in February the company did post adjusted fourth quarter EPS of $1.35, which beat consensus of $1.17 on better realizations, lower operating expenses and Depreciation, depletion, and amortization. In addition, EOG had $440 million of free-cash-flow generated after dividends.

Shareholders are paid a 3.14% dividend. The price target at Goldman Sachs is posted at $58, while the consensus price target on Wall Street for the shares is set slightly higher at $59.68. EOG Resources closed trading on Thursday at $47.51.

Marathon Petroleum

This company is a solid way for more conservative accounts to play the energy sector. Marathon Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: MPC) is currently one of the largest independent petroleum refining and marketing companies in the United States.

The company operates approximately 2,750 retail sites under the Marathon and Speedway brands. In addition, Marathon Petroleum operates a logistics network of pipelines, barges, trucks and terminals that store and transport crude and products.

Despite a plan to spin-off Speedway, the company announced in late February a plan to invest $550 million in the chain. The investment will focus primarily on converting convenience stores the company added to its portfolio through several acquisitions over the past two years — notably, its strategic combination with San Antonio-based Andeavor in the fall of 2018 — to Speedway’s branding and systems

The company bought rival Andeavor for $23.3 billion in the biggest-ever deal for an oil refiner that created the largest independent fuel maker in the U.S. Following the deal, Marathon became the largest operator of refining capacity in the US and management believes the company can achieve the $1 billion in synergies.

Shareholders are paid a robust 7.02% dividend, but this one does have the potential to be trimmed.. The Goldman Sachs price target is posted at $31 while the Wall Street consensus is set much higher at $46.14. The shares closed Thursday at $32.08.

[waldron] 01/5/2020 17:05

Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 26.10 -1.44%
Gasoline NYMEX 0.78 -3.53%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.13 -1.80%
WTI 19.091 USD -2.00%

FTSE 100
5,756.83 -2.45%
Dow Jones
23,861.85 -1.99%




Bp
298.85 -4.55%

Vodafone
110.38 -1.57%

Royal Dutch Shell A
1,231.6 -7.05%



Royal Dutch Shell B
1,200 -6.72%

[waldron] 01/5/2020 12:06

Price (GBX) 1,213.60 Var % (+/-) -8.41% (Down -111.40)

High 1,293.00 Low 1,206.00

Volume 2,875,648 Last close 1,325.00 on 30-Apr-2020

Bid 1,213.20 Offer 1,213.60

Trading status Regular Trading Special conditions NONE

[waldron] 01/5/2020 09:25

ENERGYVOICE


Analysts see wisdom in Shell’s ‘iconic’ dividend cut
by Mark Lammey
01/05/2020, 6:00 am


Shell cut its dividend for the first time since World War Two yesterday in an move that further highlights the severity of the latest oil sector downturn.

Chief executive Ben van Beurden said the decision to reduce the dividend by 66% to 12.8p (16c) per share was “iconic” and would be “painful”; for shareholders.

Mr van Beurden added no company boss wanted a dividend cut on their track record, but that long-term market uncertainty meant the move was “clear and obvious” for Shell, whose profits plummeted in the first quarter.

He acknowledged that Shell would “probably̶1; have to make headcount reductions, while deferred projects could eventually be cancelled.

Analysts said the dividend cut was “prudent”; and would help free up cash as Shell tries to adapt for the energy transition. Two weeks ago, the Anglo-Dutch company revealed plans to become a net-zero emissions business by 2050.

David Barclay, head of office at Brewin Dolphin Aberdeen, said Shell had taken the “right step” to “strengthen its financial position and cut costs during a very difficult time”.

Tom Ellacott, senior vice president with Wood Mackenzie’s corporate analysis team, described the move as “sensible̶1; in the face of “huge uncertainty”.

Mr Ellacott said: “A permanent dividend reset could also accelerate the strategic pivot to ‘Big Energy’ through the reinvestment of more retained earnings in the youthful zero-carbon energy sector.”

“Shell’s dividend cut has thrown down the gauntlet to the supermajors,” he added.

Shell’s “A” class shares fall nearly 11% to £13.25, wiping more than £10 billion off its market value.

Biraj Borkhataria, analyst at RBC Europe, said: “Clearly the decision would have not been taken lightly by the board, however this is a positive move over the long term in our view.

“The move will allow Shell to pivot more easily through the energy transition, and not be tied to a £11.9bn ($15bn) dividend to service each year.”

Shell has implemented a number of measures to bolster its balance sheet, including halting its share buyback programme and identifying billions of pounds worth of savings in response to the oil price collapse.

Offshore UK, Shell has delayed its Shearwater-Fulmar gas line re-plumb, along with the final investment decisions for its Jackdaw development and the Cambo project, operated by Siccar Point Energy.

However, Mr van Beurden said such steps didn’t go far enough, which meant the firm had to “do something on the shareholder distribution side”.

The annual dividend pay-out will fall to an “affordable and meaningful” £4 billion, from £11.9bn previously. Freeing up £8bn will “take care of a whole range of uncertainty”, Mr van Beurden said, adding: “What’s bugging me most is the uncertainty.”

Chief financial officer Jessica Uhl said Shell anticipated a “deeper and longer recession”, with commodity prices and demand not recovering until 2022-23.

First quarter revenues totalled £48 billion, down 28% year-on-year, but Shell managed to stay in the black during the reporting period, posting pre-tax profits of £500m. That figure pales in comparison to the £7.5bn of profits chalked up in Q1 2019.

CCS earnings attributable to shareholders excluding identified items, Shell’s preferred performance measure, came in at £2.3bn, down 46% year-on-year.

[rburtn] 01/5/2020 08:12

You would have thought that at times such as these, when a source of cheap energy is just what world recovery needs, the gaff would be blown on nonsense which artificially depresses its use. Yet here we are, and I hesitate to call them idiots, with the Shell and BP. bigwigs undertaking to follow the 'Garbage In, Garbage Out' flawed models of the IPCC. q.v. the Paris accord where their defect was openly identified. You don't need to be an expert to realise that CO2 is not the cause of climate change so why do they persist in adding to this deluge of fake news? Sure, exhaust fumes, no different from the waste products of almost all processes, are toxic in excess. Also, dependency on fossil fuel is to be minimised for geo-political reasons. But to deliberately set out to deny the utility of your principal product is a plain dereliction of duty to shareholders.

Now is the time to break ranks and point out just how absurd it is to claim that a component making up three or four parts in 10,000 of the atmosphere out ranks another, a thousand times more numerous, in climatic effects. It does nothing remotely comparable with the versatility and energy intensive transformations of water. Are the directors making sure this subterfuge is being handled in shareholders' interests, are we being paid enough to keep us quiet? No doubt they are.

[la forge] 01/5/2020 08:09

5/01/2020 | 08:42
Biraj Borkhataria of RBC maintains his positive opinion with a recommendation to buy.

The target price is revised upwards from 1700 GBp to 1800 GBp.