Roxi Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[swiss chris505] 20/1/2017 08:56

C1

Good luck with those C1 hope the boat comes in for you ! As ever with Roxi the wait twists and turns and f"ck ups will always hold this back ,though maybe one day Rodders!! I am back taking an interest as I have nt looked in for the best part of 2 yrs and its like seeing how an old girlfriend looks when you have nt seen her for a couple of years.
Looks like Roxi has nt been down the gym and has nt had the delivery of the new washing machine ! Still doing the laundry with the old mangle in her shell suit ! LOL

Hope Smarty s ship comes in as I m sure its his shout on the curry !!

[control1] 19/1/2017 23:49

CB - 34074

To be honest, I've given up on that question, don't have a clue.

I've reduced my holding here to core only and moved a lot of my cash into HUR at between 24-30p (sadly missed the earlier price). Now there's a share which is already giving and if Halifax comes in as expected and a link is proven between most/all the licences that they hold, this is a potential life changer for me as much as a success here will be for Smarty....

For anyone interested, I also have a stake in CPX which I have intermittently tipped on here in the last 18 months or so. They have just had a product launched by Murata and has recently doubled and trust me, that is only the beginning, it will be HUGE....

EDL is also one to watch, useless BOD that couldn't manage its backside which has almost literally had success forced on them by luck/circumstance.

As always, DYOR but there is money in them thar' co's...

We will all have plenty of time to come back here and take advantage of toggle's suggested timetable, A5 will probably be on it's 10th side track by then (if the rig hasn't collapsed and disappeared into the hole by then)...

[timberwolf3] 19/1/2017 14:43

Thanks Togglebrush.

[togglebrush] 19/1/2017 13:35

House Brokers latest report
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[ngms27] 19/1/2017 12:40

sloppyg, certainly do. The most recent deal went through at something like $2.3 per barrel in the ground.

Therefore as you've guessed I think Konil's figures are wildly optimistic as I do for the volumes.

The largest target in the CPR was < 100m barrels and this included all the area for the current 3 deep wells. Whilst I think the oil column is greater than suggested by the CPR figures I'd go between, say 200m barrels in the unlikely event they can actually get one or more to flow.

[sloppyg] 19/1/2017 12:23

Konil - i think you will find Jonny likes to use $2/bbl for undeveloped reserves !

[konil] 19/1/2017 11:03

toggle, lot of effort gone into your post.

a big factor that will contribute to company value in event of sale is reserves.

the ongoing operational business based on shallow oil sales and reserves is not insignificant, and if company reports give good pointer to potential then shallow reserves may grow significantly through 2017/2018, but the bigger bonanza will come with proving commerciality of the deeps.

if deeps come in with say a total of 300mmboe, then at $10/bbl for oip after proven commercial, that would add c.150p to the share price assuming 1.6bn shares post merger and $/£ rate 1.23.

current shallow reserves are 45mmboe (roxi and baverstock), so post merger it will all accrue to the merged entity (with enlarged number of shares of course = 1.6bn) and lets assume shallow reserves grow through 2017/2018 to say 100mmboe, that will add another 50p.

in total that's a tasty 200p.

pie in the sky? (cue jonny!)

perhaps but one can plug in numbers fairly easily to suit one's outlook.

400mmboe at $10/bbl oip = 200p.

200mmboe at $2/bbl oip = 20p.

300mmboe at $5/bbl oip = 75p.

my feeling is they are sitting on massive deep oil (over 400m column in total over 3 holes with perhaps 250m of that connected across 2 holes) but have messed up big time on the operational aspects and have zilch proven so far. if they can rectify that who knows where the share price will go.

[xclusive2] 19/1/2017 10:22

Top end of the estimate would be good ?Patience is a virtue, another year won't hurt if the return is worth it. Re eventual sale of company v FDP ? It will take huge resources to develop the elephants and likely to be outright sale at some juncture. Need enough funding to prove up some more of the acreage and increase value. More acreage = more opportunity but need cash to exploit it. Billions instead of 100's of millions will transform this but I'm sure the vultures are watching closely.S

[togglebrush] 19/1/2017 08:47

A timetable based on Kremlin watching and adding to my post 34045 of 34078
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Background
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Company is not run by Oil men. Locals are excited but cautious because neighbouring Tengiz is the sixth largest oil field in the world; recoverable crude oil reserves from Tengiz and Korolev fields combined have been estimated at 6 to 9 billion barrels (950×106 to 1,430×106 m3).

A 1985 explosion, in which one man was killed, caused a 200-metre (660 ft)-high column of fire visible from 140 kilometres, The deadly gas made it impossible for Soviet firefighters to quickly extinguish the fire. The well burned for a period of one year and was finally capped. Locals do not have the expertise to develop field or finance to handle such a disaster.
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Locals did provide finance for rescue of company in financial crisis and at the beginning had an EXIT Strategy.
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History
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Company was founded and run by Oil men in 2006 to 2011 Financial crisis was when OIL MEN left. Local money rescued the company Clive Carver (a Non Exec) becomes Chairman … Kuat Oraziman becomes CEO. The point of this is that Carver is paid more than Kuat Oraziman with Kairat Satylganov combined. London listing was retained with a strategy appears to be sale of company in London market.
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Pattern begins with Appointment of GCA Gaffney, Cline & Associates to update technical estimates in January and their report on 2nd Sept 2016 was one step on building the pattern.
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Appointment of a London PR company in 2016 was another step in process.
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Bulking up the company with proposed merger to give a more viable company is a further step.
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CURRENT
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90 Day deep well flow test is expected to end in late January about NOW
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Completion of the proposed merger required certain regulatory consents in the UK and Kazakhstan, together with the approval of independent Roxi shareholders and the Baverstock Quota-holders was expected to end in late January NOW.
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Recent Operational update was like an overture to a stage musical including tunes which will be included in the coming circular. Started the mood music
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Phase One possible timetable … Merger
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Circular expected shortly say by Mid February
General Meeting say Mid to Late March
Takeover say by Mid April
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Phase Two … Sale of Company
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5th June 2017 … Full Year results to end of December 2016 which will not be that impressive
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End of June and start of first half year as a merged company
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September early interims of half year to end of June 2017
31st December 2017 year end and of first half year as merged company data, This is a valuable marketing tool which can be available say by Mid April 2018 when search begins for buyer
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Target prices
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Companies Working Interest in Proved Probable and Possible Gross Field is 58.41% or 26.3 mmsbrls
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Companies broker WH Ireland has a current ye estimate of 29p. An earlier 12-Aug-14 by WHI had a Blue Sky of 74p. Directors highest priced options are at 65p. Other current broker year end estimates are 21p.
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IMHO those with current shareholding, using a back of a beer mat numbers, may find their RXP shares being worth up between 25p to 50p in 2018
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My plan has been done for an idea of timing and scale with errors and omission excepted.

[swiss chris505] 18/1/2017 23:21

Yes it has been better I must admit !! Hard work though

[xclusive2] 18/1/2017 13:10

Better invested into bricks and mortar !

[swiss chris505] 18/1/2017 12:38

Yes all sounds familiar ! I might have a nibble in the coming months

[xclusive2] 18/1/2017 10:14

Chris,

Who really knows. Are they going to have a result on all deeps post the merger situation ? None of the wells have been P&A'd and it makes no sense to me to have moved the rig to A5 for a sidetrack which i thought was going ahead in tandem with A6. It all smacks of game playing but nothing would surprise me with Roxi.

[swiss chris505] 18/1/2017 09:19

How long do you think for a re rating Smarty/C1 ?

[xclusive2] 17/1/2017 23:34

And a lot more in 2018 but I'm after a return = 10 year investment. I feel far more comfortable that I'm not going to endure another AIM insolvent disaster but I'm after the real re-rating the deeps can deliver. We all know how the hype will kick in and this will get overheated and the returns will be significant. Shallows are good news but as I said, I want the instant re-rate that hopefully is coming.

[control1] 17/1/2017 20:06

Don't knock the shallows smarty, note:-

"Importantly, the interval perforated is in the same horizon as those producing at wells 141 and 143. We therefore believe the structure at MJF extends to an area of approximately 10 km2"

That's a LOT of potential at say an average of 300bopd per well which is say 100,000 barrels per annum even @ $16 = your money back in a year and a half with full commercial rates in due course.

Still not buying anymore until the picture is a lot clearer

[togglebrush] 17/1/2017 14:32

Ten years ago when company started 1 USD gave you roughly 126 Tenge
Now 1 USD gives roughly 332 Tenge. The code for the Kazakhstan Tenge is KZT
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Oil sold in US Dollars ... 78 workers and most costs are paid in Tenge
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Read the Annual Reports to see how often the currency weakness is mentioned.

[xclusive2] 17/1/2017 13:44

Konil,Can't answer that but I sense you might have your answer post merger !S

[timberwolf3] 17/1/2017 13:29

Yes good call by toon army.

[konil] 17/1/2017 13:20

sloppy, it adds up if you assume that all they are doing is shallow ops, using proceeds of current production, and that deep ops are on hold until funding sorted, and funding is probably waiting on merger finalisation.

in the absence of news from roxi, how else does one explain the lack of progress over about 8 or 9 months on 3 promising deeps!

[xclusive2] 17/1/2017 13:07

A lot of unhappy punters who sold and who can blame them. The shares are held tightly and we all know that the key stakeholders aren't selling so share price unlikely to tank.Well done Toon Army. I like to bottom fish but the last RNS was not one to add on in my view but obviously was !Smarty

[bullinachinashop3] 17/1/2017 10:39

new TP, have a read if you can!

[swiss chris505] 17/1/2017 10:30

Ole Limerick timed his buying well !!!! Funny that eh !!!

[xclusive2] 17/1/2017 08:42

Games being played. Roxi have already made the statement that they believe the fundamentals underpin the current m/cap and any deep success will deliver a re-rating. I believe the merger is the trigger point and we'll soon see if we get the miraculous change of fortune !Good to see more success on shallows and oil price revenue increasing but I did not invest for shallows. This could become a safe investment as revenues increase but the rewards come from the associated risk taken on living with this for years, I won't get it from the shallows !They clearly have cash as they can continue shallow ops but they need funding to target the elephants. Next few months will be interesting and I'm hoping I'm right re the sudden miraculous re-rating (-:S

[bullinachinashop3] 17/1/2017 08:38

not to be sniffed at, yes, very confident rns imo, should be a very interesting spring.