Rize Circular Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 17/12/2007 17:47

Time to start considering the end of the current cycle and the imminent start of the next?
My view is that due to two major factors not present in the last Century to any extent, markets will be more effieicent in completing major corrections and recommencing new Bulls.
- The rise of technology creating a super-efficient supply-demand conveyor of very close and accurate pricing to need control mechanisms.
- The Icefield phenomenon: the growth of Chindia and to an degree Brazil Russia etc. The world economy is now more 'weighted' or hefted. THis hefting is similar to a gyroscope in action. its a generalised view of 'can China offset the US recession'.
To a degree, witness weak Chinese markets, no, but to an extent, yes. THis should also apply to metals cycles, prices of zinc and copper may fall but will always rapidly recover.
To me, the odds still favour a supercycle in commodities. Only the BIG bear circumstances would derail it ( Pandemic, world war etc) there are not on offer in 2008.
So we could be in a Bear market in January 08 and out of it by July 08.
Ideas and comments welcome. If so, 30-40% falls in many shares and metals is attractive.

[blackstone] 18/7/2004 10:09

Hi energyi
Nice to see some cycle threads appearing again

Here is a chart of the dow 1896 to 2004 showing the third and fourth US K-Wave cycle. I have used the years you have posted in the header


Blackstone

[energyi] 18/7/2004 07:44

Another sharp drop is possible before 2004 year end

[energyi] 08/1/2002 20:57

For those of you that have suffered last year...
this advice is worth keeping in mind:

How to Survive and Thrive
Through any Business Setback:

The four-step process of turning a setback into a comeback

Has your business ever had a setback? Of course it has. Perhaps your right-hand person left for your biggest competitor. Or maybe your top salesperson quit without notice and took a few key accounts. Or even worse, perhaps you lost everything because of a bad business decision.
Whatever happened, whether it was a large or small setback, how you dealt with the issue most likely determined where you are today. Those who realize that setbacks are simply part of the business process usually thrive, while those who dwell on the changes setbacks bring routinely falter.
The fact is, a setback is really a change that needs to occur in order to move forward. And no matter what industry you're in, you're bound to have things change. The key is to remember that these temporary setbacks can empower you to reach even greater levels of future business success. No matter what obstacle has plagued your business, following is the four-step process that can help you survive and thrive through any business setback.

1. Focus Your Vision

Where you focus your energy determines where you will go. If you focus on the setback and the challenges it brought you, your business can't move forward. However, when you focus your vision on what you want your business to become despite the setback they you're using the setback for what it really is: a transitionary period.
Since every business will go through some sort of change or setback at one time or another, it's important to be able to look past the obstacle and plan your future strategies. In order to develop your new business focus, ask yourself these questions: "What is the big picture I have for my business?" "What can I do differently to keep this setback form occurring again?" "What goals (sales, product development, customer retention, etc.) do I want my business to achieve in the next three, six and twelve months?" "How can I use this setback as a learning experience?" Use the answers to these questions as your guide to develop your new business focus.

2. Make a Decision

Both success and failure are decision. So once your vision is in place, you need to decide you're going to win despite the setback. The truth is, successful business people choose to be successful. They understand that decision and choice are integral parts of the success formula. No matter what setback they encounter, they decide to overcome it and prevail.
Some decisions you'll have to make in order for your business to overcome a setback include:
Who are my advisor? Negative advisors who focus on the setback won't help you overcome it. You need to decide to associate with positive advisors who share your vision.
Is my new goal big enough? Just because you had a setback doesn't mean you have to start over small. Make decision to see the big picture first. Then you can work your way backward to meeting the goal.
What steps must I take to meet my goal? Plan out and decide specifically what you will do to meet you new goal. For example, if your goal is to increase sales by 33% write out what you will do to accomplish that and the timeframe you're allowing yourself to meet the goal.

3. Take Action

A decision without action is simply an illusion, and an action without a vision is mere confusion. Yet a vision plus a decisive action can change the world.
Once you decide on the various factors to making your new business vision a reality, you must take action on each and every one. Unfortunately, many business people never act on their decisions. While they have every intention to make their new business vision a reality, they lack the determination and persistence that comes with taking action.
By taking action on a decision, you're also taking responsibility for the setback. And once you take responsibility for your actions you're ready to move forward and attain your next goal. Remember, you might not be responsible for getting knocked down, but you are responsible for getting back up. Only those who act achieve their goals.

4. Keep the Desire

Desire is the degree of energy you're willing to exert in order to reach your goal. In other words, how badly do you want your business to survive and what are you willing to do in order to achieve it?
Many business people who take action quickly give up because their desire falters. Either a new idea strikes them and they lose focus, or they encounter another minor setback and become discouraged. In order to reach the new business goal you have set for yourself, you must have the desire to consistently follow-through with every action, even it involves a degree of risk. While taking a risk may be intimidating, especially after a setback, it's a necessary ingredient to reaching your new business goal.
Keep in mind an old business saying: "It's impossible to reach second base if your afraid to leave first base." Decide how badly you want to achieve the goal and then keep going after it until you achieve it.
Remember, having a business setback is not an "if" proposition; it's a "when." And when one occurs in your business, you need to make a conscious decision to view it not as a problem, but rather as a learning opportunity. You must decide what you're going to do about the setback and focus on the solution.
Every super successful businessperson has had setbacks; however, they realize that setback is not the end of the road, but rather a bend in the roadand the only one who crash are those who fail to make the turn. By viewing your business' setback as a chance for future growth, every business challenge can have a positive outcome, and every setback can be seen as nothing but a setup for an incredible comeback.

[energyi] 08/1/2002 20:06

The CYCLE is Down.
A long term bear market began in the first quarter of 2000 and will
last 3-5 years with 2002 and 2004 to be hard down years.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Yes, economic life does tend to move in cycles...
And the patterns of the past may help us see the future.
Here's an example:

ECONOMIC CYCLE

LINK:

This gives an idea of where commodity and material prices may be
headed over the next few years. In a word: UP!

nother long term cycle is the Kondratief Wave (50-60 years)
K-WAVES:
First US K-Wave:
Advance period - Spring season ………;…1789 - 1802 13 years
Advance period - Summer season ………;…1803 - 1816 13 years
Years of advance.............................. 26 years

Decline period - Fall.. season ………;…1817 - 1829 12 years
Decline period - Winter season ………;…1830 - 1844 14 years
Years of decline.............................. 26 years
Total years....................................52 years

Second US K-Wave:
Advance period - Spring season ………;…1845 - 1858 13 years
Advance period - Summer season ………;…1859 - 1871 12 years
Years of advance.............................. 25 years

Decline period - Fall.. season ………;…1872 - 1884 12 years
Decline period - Winter season ………;…1885 - 1896 11 years
Years of decline.............................. 23 years
Total years....................................48 years

Third US K-Wave:
Advance period - Spring season ………;…1896 - 1907 11 years
Advance period - Summer season ………;…1908 - 1920 12 years
Years of advance.............................. 23 years

Decline period - Fall season ………;…1921 - 1932 11 years
Decline period - Winter season ………;…1932 - 1948 16 years
Years of decline.............................. 27 years
Total years....................................50 years

Fourth US K-Wave:
Advance period - Spring season ………;…1949 - 1966 17 years
Advance period - Summer season ………;…1966 - 1980 14 years
Years of advance.............................. 31 years

Decline period - Fall.. season ………;…1981 - 1999 18 years
Decline period - Winter season ………;…2000 - 2011 11 years
Years of decline.............................. 29 years
Total years....................................60 years

Why does this work??
There are times when people save, and times when they spend.
And demographics (percentage of people in their "spending years"
can give us a clue what will happen):
"During the spender cycle upswing, hard assets, i.e., gold, crude oil, real estate etc., greatly increased in price. In 1981 a new saver cycle upswing began and paper asset prices increased ten fold. I believe that the economy is entering a new spender cycle upswing during which equities and other paper assets will have poor relative price performance and the relative price of hard assets as in the past will rise."

LINKS:
K-Wave:
S&P500 Cycles:
S&P Futures:
coming...
CyclesInAustralia / CyclesInIndia