Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 20/1/2021 10:22

Ooof. Looks like a 150k buy gone through

[mr roper] 19/1/2021 10:59

Yup, looks pretty slick indeed.

[wan] 19/1/2021 08:50

The Kidneyintex website appears to have been updated (to me at least), worth running through the various tabs at the top of the page -

First in Early Rapid Kidney Function Decline Prediction

KidneyIntelX is the only clinical diagnostic tool available that assesses the risk of progressive kidney function decline in CKD patients with type 2 diabetes.

AI-driven insights provide a personalized patient risk score, allowing physicians to improve monitoring and ongoing treatment.

[hpcg] 17/1/2021 15:02

For those that aren't familiar with US markets you may not appreciate just how under the radar even large companies can be. The NYSE has over 4500 listings, and Nasdaq 4000. Finding the likes of Renalytix is the veritable needle in a haystack. The addressable market of investors across the pond is as large as the TAM of the diagnostic test and at the same stage of development.

[wan] 17/1/2021 04:37

Renalytix gets tipped again in the Mail, also mentions taking profits (but was mentioned last time too), but Welshborders piece above highlighting institutions have been relatively strong buyers also indicating the level of potential.

MIDAS SHARE TIPS

[trickydicky1] 16/1/2021 22:55

A potential decacorn.

Yes.

Lots could and may well go wrong, but the potential is there.

[thesasquatch] 16/1/2021 13:17

It gets a bit silly quite quickly, some rough early addressable market numbers:Population of New York state (launch market) approx 20m80% adult population15% of US adults have CKDThe majority will have cover under MedicareI make that 1.2m $950 per test @ say 5% net margin to be conservative across the board....NO! Too high, start again!

[hpcg] 16/1/2021 10:41

I would have thought gross margin per test would be very high at a volume level but will of course start off at a much lower level. In the short term, H1, don't forget they will be adding 5 or 6 more healthcare systems irrespective of the FDA. This will see wider patient access more sales and more data to demonstrate the benefits.

[wan] 16/1/2021 09:30

Donald...Fwi, in my view, and indeed as implied by the CEO during the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference, the moat is 'already' very large, with the CEO stating there are no direct competitors and that the barriers to entry are very high. Hence my previous comment, that the ground has been laid and the runway is clear! First mover advantage will of course build/widen that moat further.

[mr roper] 16/1/2021 09:21

FYI - stocktwits have a Renx page up now. Not much in the way of contributions to date but worth watching as interest grows Stateside
hxxps://stocktwits.com/symbol/RNLX

[donald pond] 16/1/2021 09:03

Thanks Russ, I was ballpark at least! The other key point is that as RENX carry out tests they build up a database and the AI part of the business will get stronger and stronger. If, as seems likely, they get first mover advantage they could build a huge moat.

[homebrewruss] 16/1/2021 08:39

DP, the price is $950 per test. I appreciate there might be a big sales push to get things rolling but presumably once it gets some momentum margins should be pretty high especially as I imagine there are a decent amount of fixed costs for the infrastructure.

[donald pond] 16/1/2021 08:32

I just can't make sense of those margins. I had in mind the basic cost was $925 a test, and while we may share a big chunk of that with third parties, surely the margin is still going to be very high?There's a chap on twitter, Dirk Gently, who was also explaining VRCI to me, he knows his stuff and that looks great.I do love the free spin off shares these companies generate. We got one VRCI share we got for each RENX one, so for anyone holding from that time you can add another 70p to the RENX share price to work out where you are.

[mr roper] 16/1/2021 08:28

Russ, I think the MCIT pathway will have a considerable impact on those numbers. Would be good to get an updated broker note from Stifel soon

[homebrewruss] 16/1/2021 07:23

Thanks MrR. Looking back to around the time of the NASDAQ listing I recall these figures now which must have had lots of assumptions.
Recent events mean these figures should be superceded.

'JPM modeling 2025 sales of $254m and 10% operating margin.

Stifel are at $182m for 2025 sales, but have a 16% operating margin by 2023 Flushed face'

[mr roper] 15/1/2021 23:34

No idea how long it’ll take to get to 100,000, Russ but two points worth considering
1) fda approval opens up a market of 12m patients straight away
2) KidneyIntelX has been live in the Mt Sinai Health System since late Q3 and they have approx 65,000 patients with DKD so we should get an indication in the results next month. Also, we know it’s being used As they had patient feedback 8n the presentation on Wednesday.

Also, worth remembering that we should also see revenue via the Kantaro covid tests and from the partnership with AstraZeneca.

Either way, I see us pretty much on the ground floor and about to start realising the value. It’s all in the execution now.

[homebrewruss] 15/1/2021 18:44

Has anyone tried to model potential sales growth scenarios at this point or just to early at this point to come up with anything that makes any sense?

[wan] 15/1/2021 16:51

Strictly in my view only, and it's not very often I say this because it's not a main part to any of my investment rationales, but Verici appears to be an attractive add-on to the likes of CareDx or Davita. However, I am also very content for Verici to enter the market independently, or indeed partner with either or another!

[hpcg] 15/1/2021 16:47

Fortunately again with the Nasdaq listing we'll get a report for last quarter and one for the current quarter. I'd like to see how the growth in the $950 notes.

[mr roper] 15/1/2021 16:45

Went back and listened again to the jpm presentation this afternoon. Once fda approval lands it really is staggering the opportunity. Access to 12million patients at $950 a test. Absolutely mind boggling the possibilities here.

Nasdaq stocks are generally valued at 30x revs for fast growing companies...

I’m not typing the possibilities here as I’ll come across as a lunatic but anyone with a calculator can....

Happy Friday.

[mr roper] 15/1/2021 16:36

Think it was 10% of vrci, mf. Could be wrong though. And 25% of Kantaro.

[donald pond] 15/1/2021 16:33

Does anyone know how much if any of VRCI RENX holds? Been going like a train, up another 20% today

[mr roper] 15/1/2021 16:19

Nasdaq up to $23.30 bucks equivalent to 850p. I don’t think we’ll be listed on aim in 18mths time if this type of price difference continues.