Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[melody9999] 02/6/2020 09:55

I've joined in here this am. Lots going on. Funded by the gains made on GAN - share price has gone ballistic since NASDAQ listing so fingers crossed for the same here. GLAH

[74tom] 27/5/2020 17:13

No problem at all - agree that low key and high potential is a great combination (Anexo is another I've been adding this week that's in a similar bracket, but far lower potential than here).

The fact that the Mount Sinai antibody test already has FDA EUA approval & they have high volume distribution nailed via Bio-Techne certainly puts the palaver over at Omega Diagnostics in the context.

[longshanks] 27/5/2020 16:45

Thanks for that info 74tom.

RENX is one of those low key stocks that I love. I have been buying a few shares over the last week or so. Think this will do well.

[74tom] 27/5/2020 16:22

As a reminder for anyone who stumbles upon RENX and isn't aware that they own 25% of the equity in the below venture...





"MINNEAPOLIS and NEW YORK, May 19, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Bio-Techne Corporation (NASDAQ:TECH) and the Mount Sinai Health System in New York, through its commercial affiliate Kantaro Biosciences LLC (Kantaro), today announced a partnership to initiate scaled manufacturing and distribution of testing kits based on the Mount Sinai-developed COVID-19 serology test. Kantaro Biosciences is a joint venture between Mount Sinai Health System ("Mount Sinai") and Renalytix AI (LSE: RENX) formed exclusively to ensure that diagnostic tests for critical health challenges are accessible to all. The Mount Sinai COVID-19 serology test was one of the first widely published serology tests in the United States and has gained recognition as a trusted, high-performing assay and comparator for subsequent COVID-19 serology tests. Kantaro has partnered with Bio-Techne to develop a test kit based on the Mount Sinai test and to scale up, manufacture, sell and distribute these kits. Initial kit production capacity is expected to enable laboratories to conduct in excess of 10 million tests monthly in July, scaling to higher capacity in subsequent months. The two companies have formed a joint commercialization and distribution team to support rapid distribution of the assay.

Mount Sinai was issued an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA) from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for clinical testing in its CLIA certified laboratory on April 15th. Based on this success, Bio-Techne and Mount Sinai have partnered to develop high-quality production test kits, based upon the Mount Sinai test, which can be manufactured and distributed globally at scale. Kantaro will lead regulatory processes with the intention of submitting the scaled assay for FDA EUA review in May. Kit shipments are expected to begin immediately following the receipt of FDA regulatory authorization.

The IgG antibody test kit, an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay or ELISA, is designed to measure the presence or absence of anti-COVID-19 antibodies in addition to measuring the titer (level) of antibodies a person has produced. It utilizes not one, but two virus antigens, the full-length Spike protein, and its Receptor Binding Domain, which is necessary for viral entry into cells, and is potentially linked with neutralization. The test kit will use a simple patient blood draw and is designed to be easily run by any laboratory in the world without costly proprietary equipment. The technology underlying the diagnostic test was created by internationally recognized virology and pathology teams from the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai.

In a recent comparison of EUA tests published by the FDA (link), which assumed a 5% incidence of COVID-19 in the population, the "Mount Sinai Hospital Clinical Laboratory COVID-19 ELISA Antibody Test" was reported to show a Positive Predictive Value (the probability of disease if the test is positive) of 100% and a Negative Predictive Value (the probability of no disease if the test is negative) of 99.6%. Bio-Techne and Kantaro are in the process of validating the scaled assay and expect the data to confirm similar results.

"Combining Mount Sinai's strengths in disease management, patient monitoring and clinical study design with Bio-Techne's capabilities as a fully integrated, world leading ELISA developer and manufacturer, allows us to co-develop and validate what we believe will be the highest quality and highest utility assay for COVID-19 in the world," commented Dave Eansor, Bio-Techne's Protein Sciences Segment President. "The assay not only identifies individuals with prior exposure to the COVID-19 virus; the two step test is designed to minimize false negative and false positive results while delivering valuable, quantitative information regarding the immunity state of previously infected people."

"We are extremely excited to partner with Kantaro and Mount Sinai to launch what we believe will be a gold standard serology test for COVID-19," said Chuck Kummeth, President and Chief Executive Officer of Bio-Techne. "The Bio-Techne, Mount Sinai and Kantaro teams are working around the clock to develop this test, and we are on track to achieve in approximately eight weeks what would typically take 18 months or more. As the world leader in ELISA assays, Bio-Techne has substantial capacity and the ability to scale production levels to support much of our nation's needs. We look forward to providing the world with critical information related to past exposure to the virus."

"Antibody testing will be critical to providing patients and governments the essential information they need to help the world economies reopen and begin to recover from COVID-19," said Florian Krammer, PhD, Professor of Microbiology at Icahn School of Medicine. "Through Kantaro's partnership with Bio-Techne, we look forward to bringing this extremely high-quality test to every corner of the globe, so that COVID-19 can be monitored and isolated."

The original Mount Sinai assay has been performed on more than 30,000 patient samples. Mount Sinai is studying the use of the technology to measure antibody titer in previously infected individuals, to support vaccine development, and to help evaluate emerging immunotherapies."

[nimbo1] 27/5/2020 12:14

True - either way there is some stock to shift here so it’s going to consolidate or drop a bit baring more news. I’m a buyer again on any falls - shot, medium and long term one of the most promising companies I’ve seen for significant valuation gains.

[74tom] 27/5/2020 11:18

Yes, and that's what the current forecasts from N+1 assume - a product achieving niche success. They highlight this in their January 8th note that raised the target price to £4.20;

"We iterate that these projections barely scratch the surface of the potential market value an effective prognostic risk test could achieve in the estimated 37m US population of CKD patients"

And this was before they became heavily involved with Covid-19 via antibody testing & pred-MAKER...

Consolidation will be news dependant, it's only 15% higher than last December despite all of the positive news, so the price is hardly ahead of itself IMO.

[nimbo1] 27/5/2020 10:45

The way I read this situation is Renx could be a good buy at this level assuming its product becomes successful in a relatively niche way. I.e. it does a few 1000 tests per month for people who want the extra insight - that could support todays share price. revenue c.£50 mil a year with margins at c.40%. i.e. c£15 mil PAT and PE of 30.

The upside is it becomes ingrained as part of the US healthcare system as the standard practice for kidney care...in which case you'll have a 10x +.

Price needs to consolidate for a while imo.

[74tom] 27/5/2020 10:38

Faz, your comments are very glass half empty to say the least - it makes sense for RENX to list in the market where they operate & where the management team are based. I presume that they opted for an AIM listing to begin with because the product wasn't far enough along the path to commercialisation, two years on it clearly has made significant progress.

For me the main reasons to list are;

- Improved liquidity for the shares
- Raise cash to grow the business
- Increase awareness of the business in the market it is going to operate in

Listing to attract a bidder doesn't make sense, why would anyone wait until a company's profile was raised before making a bid?

The US markets have been toppy for ages and not reversed properly, most likely due to the amount of new cash added to the economy by the FED. Pharma / tech stocks have been well insulated and I don't see why that won't continue.

Absolutely not a golden handshake, but for Pharma companies it is the best exchange in the world to list on, no doubt about that.

[nimbo1] 26/5/2020 22:27

Depends on the news flow imo - all this companies operations are in US. Certainly not much attention over here! FDA approval = good gains most of the time.

[faz] 26/5/2020 21:42

Just to say a NASDAQ listing is not a golden handshake, and the US stock market looks very toppy right now. If it reverses a company would do well not to list. But if it does zero activity is more likely than zoom activity imo, but a listing can be useful if either fund raising is needed or attracting a bidder that perhaps would welcome a US market prescence.

[74tom] 26/5/2020 16:41

Two very chunky delayed buys this afternoon - 12500 @ 4.35 and then a further 9984 @ 4.38. Next news could come any day, take your pick from;

- FractalDX spin off update (pricing & timing)

- Update on commencement of pred-MAKER project to study the links between Covid-19 and the Kidney's using RENX software

- FDA EUA submission for the Mount Sinai antibody test (submission before the end of May according to the Bio-Techne RNS last week)

- More details on the forthcoming NASDAQ listing - only announced a week ago but I doubt they'll be wasting any time (detail on pricing, amount to raise etc etc).

- FDA Approval for KidneyIntelX

- More partnerships / regulatory progress towards commercial launch

This is a very exciting share which I'm very pleased to have discovered :)

[nimbo1] 26/5/2020 14:19

Needs time to consolidate i would think barring further news.

[74tom] 26/5/2020 14:03

Sorry yes you're right, definitely a possibility - although I'm not sure how many US citizens would have held EKF prior to the spin off... Also not sure why you would sell ahead of a NASDAQ listing! All quiet again today after a relatively busy start.

[nimbo1] 26/5/2020 13:26

There could be individual US shareholders From the original spin out. Mount Sinai are a US holder! I’m not saying there definitely are but surely a possibility

[nimbo1] 26/5/2020 13:07

restricting lifted for any sellers too though... not just buyers

[74tom] 26/5/2020 10:52

Interesting to note that you can now buy via Barclays, so the international restriction on buying shares has finally been lifted... will we see some US buying this afternoon I wonder?

[74tom] 26/5/2020 07:47

Nimbo1, yes there has been consistent progress with jumping through the regulatory hoops. The announcement of the NASDAQ listing certainly suggests confidence & that initial revenues are on the verge of occurring. N+1 Singer assume a 55% chance of success in their current figures I believe, although what constitutes as ‘success’; is clearly subjective!

If / when the US market is scaling up, we can then turn our attention internationally, as has been stated several times by the company.

As an aside, is anyone aware of any comparable NASDAQ listings for AI health diagnostics companies that we could use as a benchmark to potentially value RENX against? I couldn’t locate anything from a quick search, but that doesn’t mean they don’t exist...

[nimbo1] 25/5/2020 21:45

74tom - On the kidney IntelX front its about how quickly demand ramps up for the testing and the navigation of the US healthcare system. They seem to be doing a good job...



From here its all about whether their system is a niche offering or whether it becomes part of the US healthcare system for people with kidney problems - if it becomes the default standard of care this will be a must billion $ company.

Im not yet sure how to put the % chances of success but do already own a lot of these.

[74tom] 25/5/2020 21:27

The other aspect of RENX that makes me very positive is how under the radar it is. The lack of discussion both here & on LSE is very unusual - possibly because it looks expensive on the surface if you glance at it and don’t do any research? The more you dig the more the potential for a huge growth story becomes apparent.

I found the following article from our current CTO back in 2014 really useful for understanding more of the science;



Also this recent journal summarises the current landscape & gives unequivocal backing to the RENX science - whilst stating there is still a lot of work to be done in general.

[74tom] 23/5/2020 22:19

Hi Nimbo, I've been doing the same thing and have come to a similar conclusion regarding the medium term valuation. It's got all of the ingredients to be a multi billion pound company, regardless of the additional Covid involvement.

- Huge potential market
- Game changing technology
- Flawless execution to date
- Unique relationship with Mount Sinai
- High barriers to entry for competitors
- Significant and increasingly valuable IP that strengthens their competitive position

The main risks are all related to timing, however their strategy of starting the regulatory process at the same time as the clinical studies has reduced the likelihood & potential length of delays.

I find it especially intriguing that until 5th May there were securities laws that prevented any US domiciled citizen from owning shares, despite the company being based in America & targeting the US market. Clearly a NASDAQ listing was always in mind, and I can’t help but think they will value RENX shares significantly higher than AIM...

[nimbo1] 23/5/2020 16:47

I've been doing a lot of work on renx and come up with some simple numbers at the end of it - if things go right and excluding the covid testing.

In 12 months testing capacity is fully utilised - 15,000 tests per month x 12 = 180,000 tests per annum.
Revenue from KidneyIntelX is $171,000,000 per annum. (180,000 x $950 price per test).
Brokers estimate PBT margin will be 40 % (off much lower revenue forecasts while stating they are conservative).
0.4* 171,000,000 = $68,400,000 PBT. Tax @20% = PAT $54,720,000 * 30PE = $1.6 billion = £1.4 billion £.

1.4/ 0.25 (current market cap) = 5.6X upside if full testing capacity is utilised. (not including covid testing).

So this could be a 5 - 10 bagger here on a 2 year view - any opinions on that statement? If I am right this won't stay at this price for too long - might tread sideways a bit but more institutional investors will start to cotton on and the share register is tight.

The 2 downsides I have in my excitement are is I my optimistic target assumes testing capacity is utilised quite quickly when I have no insight as to how long it will take to ramp. (However the brokers are only assuming about 25% of the revenue I have mentioned but mention it might be very conservative).
I also assume full medicare is passed on the basis of Mount Sinai involvement - I don’t know the risks here.

[wantage] 23/5/2020 13:49

Zak said 650p not 850p. I'll go for the latter.

[wantage] 23/5/2020 13:44

I'm not a great believer in technical analysisbut good to see Zak Mir, the popular and well known chartistHas aligned with fundamentals and come up with 850p target in his Covid round up.Of all these stocks Renx least speculative as so much else going on. Much rather be here than one drug wonders or outlandish speculative fantasies like Haemogenix.